Quote Investigator® – Page 2 – Tracing Quotations

Quote Origin: The Programming Occupation Will Become Extinct

Herbert A. Simon? Eric Schmidt? Andrej Karpathy? Apocryphal?

**Abstract representation of computer code from Unsplash**

Question for Quote Investigator: The capabilities of artificial intelligence systems continue to grow in 2025. Complex computer programs can now be generated from prompts uttered in English, Chinese, and other natural languages. Here are two predictions separated by sixty-five years:

(1) It is far more likely that the programming occupation will become extinct than that it will become all-powerful

(2) In the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers

Apparently, something like the first remark was written by Herbert A. Simon circa 1960. Simon later won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1978. Also, something like the second statement was spoken by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt in 2025.

Would you please help me to find detailed citations together with accurate phrasings?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1960 Herbert A. Simon was an Associate Dean in the Graduate School of Industrial Administration of Carnegie Institute of Technology in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Simon published an article titled “Management by Machine” in “The Management Review” which included a speculative discussion about management twenty-five years into the future, i.e., in 1985. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

The user of a 1960 computer needs to know less about computer design and operation than the user of a 1950 computer. The manager of a highly automated 1985 factory will need to know less about how things are actually produced than the manager of a 1960 factory.

Similarly, we can dismiss the notion that computer programmers will become a powerful elite in the automated corporation. It is far more likely that the programming occupation will become extinct than that it will become all-powerful. More and more, computers will program themselves, and direction will be given to computers through the mediation of compiling systems. Moreover, the task of communicating with computers will become less and less technical as computers come—by means of compiling techniques—closer and closer to handling the irregularities of natural language.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Dialogue Origin: “When Will This Futuristic System Be Built?” “Ten Years After You’ve Stopped Laughing”

Arthur Kantrowitz? Gerard K. O’Neill? Timothy Leary? Arthur C. Clarke? Anonymous?

**Illustration of an O’Neill cylinder space habitat**

Question for Quote Investigator: Grand futuristic projects such as the following four examples have been greeted with a mixture of hope, excitement, skepticism, and derision:

(1) Laser propulsion systems for spacecraft
(2) Space-based solar power systems
(3) Space habitats with thousands or millions of people
(4) Space elevators on the Earth or the moon

A proponent was asked to give a timeline for the development of one of these advanced technological systems. The reply was ingenious:

You’ll have the result ten years after you’ve stopped laughing.

This statement has been attributed to U.S. physicist Arthur Kantrowitz, U.S. physicist Gerard K. O’Neill, U.S. psychologist Timothy Leary, and English science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest match found by QI appeared in “The CoEvolution Quarterly” in September 1975. The clever response was attributed to Arthur Kantrowitz by Gerard K. O’Neill.

Kantrowitz was the longtime director of the Avco-Everett Research Laboratory. He and his colleagues made advances in multiple technologies, e.g., supersonic wind tunnel design, magnetohydrodynamic power generation, superconducting magnets, and laser propulsion.¹

O’Neill was a Professor of Physics at Princeton University who pioneered particle storage rings for high-energy physics. He also designed space habitats and advocated for space manufacturing. In 1975 O’Neill was interviewed by editor and entrepreneur Stewart Brand who asked him about the timeline for developing a space habitat housing thousands of people. O’Neill presented the words of Kantrowitz. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:²

Arthur Kantrowitz, the president of AFCO-Everett was out visiting us a few days ago. He happens to be quite enthusiastic about this work, and he says that his answer for things of that kind is to say, “You’ll have the result ten years after you’ve stopped laughing,” which is I think, a pretty good answer.

The most responsible answer I could give is to say that if I really had the responsibility for getting it done by a certain time and the authority to do it in what I would consider the right way, then I would be willing to make a very strong commitment that it could be done in 15 years from time-zero. Whatever that time-zero is.

QI believes this saying should be credited to Arthur Kantrowitz although the evidence is indirect. QI has not yet found a citation containing the quotation directly from Kantrowitz.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: When You Are Up To Your Ass in Alligators, It Is Hard To Remember That Your Original Intention Was To Drain the Swamp

Kansas Cooperative Council? Lance Burr? Betty Hutton? Jim Briggs? John Rankin? Boris Yavitz? Anonymous?

**Picture showing three alligators from Unsplash**

Question for Quote Investigator: One encounters numerous obstacles when working toward the completion of an ambitious goal. It is necessary to keep the final objective in mind to make progress. A humorous statement highlights the troubles one must circumvent:

When you are up to your neck in alligators, it is difficult to recall that the first objective was to drain the swamp.

I have also seen a version with “up to your ears”. Would you please explore the provenance of this saying?

Reply from Quote Investigator: This family of expressions is difficult to trace because of its variability. Here is an overview showing dates. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:

1970 Mar 9: When you are up to your neck in alligators, it is difficult to remind yourself that your initial objective was to drain the swamp. (Attributed to Bob Volk Jr.)

1970 Apr 18: When a man is up to his shirt tail in alligators, he has difficulty reminding himself his initial objective was to drain the swamp.

1970 May 24: When you are up to your ears in alligators, it is difficult to remind yourself that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.”

1970 Jun 25: When you are up to your waist in alligators, it is difficult to remind yourself that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.

1970 Jul 7: When you’re up to your hips in alligators, it’s difficult to remind yourself that the original objective was to drain the swamp.

1970 Jul 8: When you are up to your neck in alligators, it is difficult to remember that the original objective was to drain the swamp!

1970 Sep 23: When you’re up to your ass in alligators, it is difficult to remember that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.

1970 Nov 10: When you are up to your knees in alligators — it is difficult to remember that your original objective was to drain the swamp.

1971 Feb 21: When you are up to your elbows in alligators, it is difficult to remind yourself that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.

1971 Mar 15: When you’re up to your armpits in alligators, it’s very hard to remember that the objective was to drain the swamp.

1971 May 7: When you are, up to your backside in alligators, it is difficult to remind yourself that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.

The earliest full match known to QI appeared in the “Atchison Daily Globe” of Atchison, Kansas on March 9, 1970. The saying was credited to Bob Volk Jr., but QI conjectures that the saying was already in circulation:¹

Bob Volk, jr.: “When you are up to your neck in alligators, it is difficult to remind yourself that your initial objective was to drain the swamp.”

QI also hypothesizes that the original circulating version used the phrase “ass”, but newspapers favored a wide variety of less vulgar terms.

Below are details for selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: I Don’t Think I’ve Really Seen an Anti-War Film. Every Film About War Ends Up Being Pro-War

François Truffaut? Sam Mendes? Steven Spielberg? Gene Siskel? Roger Ebert? Apocryphal?

**Painting of “The Phantom Horseman” by Sir John Gilbert**

Question for Quote Investigator: The excitement, violence, and brutality of films about war often causes confusion in the minds of movie goers. Even when a director’s avowed stance is anti-war the visceral reaction of viewers might be very different. A prominent director once said something like the following. Here are three versions:

(1) I don’t think I’ve really seen an antiwar film. Every film about war ends up being pro-war.

(2) There is no such thing as an anti-war film, because all war films look exciting.

(3) It is impossible to make an “anti-war film,” because any war film, no matter what its message, is sure to be exhilarating.

This notion has been attributed to French New Wave director François Truffaut, but I am skeptical because I have never seen a solid citation. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1973 U.S. film critic Gene Siskel interviewed François Truffaut, and Siskel asked about the use of violence in Truffaut’s films:¹

Q.—There’s very little killing in your films. How come?

A.—I find that violence is very ambiguous in movies. For example, some films claim to be antiwar, but I don’t think I’ve really seen an antiwar film. Every film about war ends up being pro-war.

Q.—Even a film like Kubrick’s “Paths of Glory” or his “Dr. Strangelove”?

A.—Yes, I think Kubrick likes violence very much.

After contemplation Siskel found credence in Truffaut’s perspective:

I have thought about Truffaut’s point for the last two weeks, and only now am I beginning to understand and agree with him. In “Paths of Glory,” which so many people consider the strongest antiwar film ever made, the film doesn’t so much condemn war as the French government that thought it necessary to sacrifice its soldiers.

The citation above is the only direct evidence of a statement from Truffaut located by QI at this time. Many other statements have been attributed to Truffaut without support.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: The Genius, Wit, and Spirit of a Nation Are Discovered in Its Proverbs

Francis Bacon? Samuel Palmer? James Kelly? Anonymous?

**Portrait of Francis Bacon by Paul van Somer I**

Question for Quote Investigator: Valuable insights into cultures may be obtained by studying popular proverbs. The English philosopher and statesman Francis Bacon has been credited with the following statement:

The genius, wit, and spirit of a nation are discovered in its proverbs.

I am skeptical of this attribution because I have never seen a solid citation. Would you please explore the provenance of this remark?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Francis Bacon died in 1626, and the earliest match located by QI appeared many years later in 1710 within the book “Moral Essays on Some of the Most Curious and Significant English, Scotch and Foreign Proverbs” by Samuel Palmer who was a Presbyter of the Church of England. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

It has been observ’d by Great Men, that the Genius, Wit, and Spirit of a Nation, is discover’d by their Proverbs, which shew the Wisdom, Invention and Disposition of the Country either to Virtue or Vice.

Thus, the first citation in 1710 specified an anonymous attribution. Yet, Francis Bacon received credit in 1721 on the title page of the following work: “A Complete Collection of Scotish Proverbs Explained and Made Intelligible To the English Reader” by James Kelly. The word “Scottish” in the title was spelled as “Scotish”:²

The Genius, Wit, and Spirit of a Nation, are discovered by their PROVERBS.
Ld. BACON.

QI does not know why James Kelly credited Bacon. Earlier evidence may exist, but QI has not yet discovered it.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Adage Origin: Men Fear Women Will Laugh at Them; Women Fear Men Will Kill Them

Margaret Atwood? Ingrid Koenig? Naomi Wolf? Gavin de Becker? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: Each of us experiences different fears. A popular feminist saying presents divergent dreads:

Men are afraid women will laugh at them. Women are afraid men will kill them.

This saying has been attributed to prominent Canadian novelist Margaret Atwood, U.S. feminist Naomi Wolf, and U.S. security specialist Gavin de Becker. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In February 1982 Margaret Atwood delivered the Hagey Lecture at Waterloo University in Canada. She formulated an essay titled “Writing the Male Character” based on her speech, and published it in “This Magazine” of Toronto, Canada in September 1982. The essay included a discussion of fear. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

‘Why do men feel threatened by women?’ I asked a male friend of mine. . . . ‘I mean,’ I said, ‘men are bigger, most of the time, they can run faster, strangle better, and they have on the average a lot more money and power.’ “They’re afraid women will laugh at them,’ he said. ‘Undercut their world view.’

Then I asked some women students in a quickie poetry seminar I was giving, ‘Why do women feel threatened by men?’ “They’re afraid of being killed,’ they said.

QI hypothesizes that the modern concise saying was derived from the passage above.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Pun Origin: A Piece of Cod Which Passeth All Understanding

Edwin Lutyens? Arthur Wimperis? Geoffrey Willans? John Poole? Malcolm Sterling Mackinlay? Anonymous?

**Sauteed cod with capers and tomato from Unsplash**

Question for Quote Investigator: A wit at a restaurant was served a plate of cod which looked unappetizing. The rejected fish inspired this memorably hilarious pun:

A piece of cod which passeth all understanding.

The wordplay was based on a biblical verse:

The peace of God which passeth all understanding.

This quip has been attributed to English architect Sir Edwin Lutyens, English playwright Arthur Wimperis, and English writer Geoffrey Willans. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest match for this pun located by QI appeared within an anecdote published in “London Society: An Illustrated Magazine” in 1886. The person delivering the joke was not precisely identified. His last name was Poole. The phrase “out at elbows” meant living in poverty. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

He was dining at one of the cheap restaurants over the water the other evening, with three or four fellows as out at elbows as himself, when a dish of fish was served up, a mysterious looking edible which no one present could put a name to.

One thought it might be intended for turbot, another voted it brill, and at last it came to Poole’s turn. After staring and sniffing at it for a minute or two, ‘I may be mistaken,’ he said, ‘but if my eyes and nose don’t deceive me, it is a piece of cod which passeth all understanding.’

The tale above was set about forty years before the publication date, i.e., circa 1846. The punster might be the playwright John Poole who was known for penning satires and farces in that time period.

The pertinent biblical verse is Philippians 4:7. Here is the phrasing from the King James Bible:²

And the peace of God, which passeth all understanding, shall keep your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.

Here is the translation from the New International Version:³

And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Dialogue Origin: “What Has Been the Impact of the French Revolution?” “It’s Too Early To Tell”

Mao Zedong? Zhou Enlai? Eduard Shevardnadze? Andre Malraux? Anonymous Official? Apocryphal?

**Storming of the Tuileries during the French Revolution**

Question for Quote Investigator: A popular anecdote claims that a high-level U.S. politician once met with a Chinese official during the 1970s, and they began to talk about the French Revolution. When the Chinese official was asked about the impact of this momentous historical event he replied: “It’s too soon to say”.

This response has been attributed to two important Chinese leaders: Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. I am skeptical because I have not found any solid citations. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: This anecdote is difficult to trace because the details of the story vary. This article presents a snapshot of current research.

A fascinating precursor appeared in a lecture delivered in 1939 by New Zealand journalist Guy Hardy Scholefield. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

To understand what is happening in the world to-day we must look back at least as far as the revolt of the North American colonies. A Chinese philosopher protested with genuine surprise that it is still too early to know what was the effect of the French Revolution.

This citation shows that the notably equivocal response was being attributed to an anonymous Chinese philosopher by 1939. QI does not know whether the similarity with the 1970s anecdote was coincidental or not.

The earliest close match for the 1970s anecdote located by QI appeared in a 1978 speech by British politician and historian Alun Gwynne Jones delivered in the House of Lords as recorded in the Hansard:²

. . . a story which Dr. Henry Kissinger tells of an experience which he had in Paris at the time of the negotiations about the Vietnam war. One evening after a long and hard day’s negotiating, he and the other diplomats and politicians were sitting around in the home of their French host.

They were discussing the events of the day when the French ambassador, the host, wishing to lift the level of conversation somewhat, asked whether they could have a short conversation about what had been the effect of the French Revolution on the political development of the world.

He turned first to Henry Kissinger and said: “Secretary of State, could you say a word about the effects of the French Revolution on the political development of the United States?” Henry Kissinger, being an expert in this kind of thing, delivered a beautifully rounded lecture mentioning such names as de Tocqueville and Lafayette and reviewing all the political developments in the United States.

It was an enormous success; indeed, so much so that the French ambassador, much emboldened, turned to the Chinese representative, a very wise and ancient gentleman, sitting next to Henry Kissinger. He said: “Tell me your Excellency, what has been the effect of the French Revolution on the development of your country?” After a brief pause the Chinese gentleman said: “It is too early yet to say.”

I think that that example makes a real point, which is that the Chinese feel themselves to be part of a great historical development.

In 2011 an illuminating citation about this anecdote appeared in the “Financial Times” of London. The article by journalist Richard McGregor stated that the quotation was spoken by the Premiere of China Zhou Enlai. The question about the French Revolution was misinterpreted. Zhou Enlai thought the referent was the recent 1968 student riots in Paris and not the 1789 storming of the Bastille. Hence, Zhou Enlai answered, “Too early to say”.

This claim was based on comments from U.S. diplomat and interpreter Chas Freeman who was present during the exchange:³

. . . Chas Freeman, a retired foreign service officer, sought to correct the long-standing error.

“I distinctly remember the exchange. There was a mis-understanding that was too delicious to invite correction,” said Mr Freeman.

He said Mr Zhou had been confused when asked about the French Revolution and the Paris Commune. “But these were exactly the kinds of terms used by the students to describe what they were up to in 1968 and that is how Zhou understood them.”

The article also presented the viewpoint of sinologist Geremie Barme of the Australian National University:

Dr Barme added that Chinese researchers with access to the foreign ministry archives in Beijing said the records made clear that Mr Zhou was referring to the 1968 riots in Paris. The Chinese archives also record Mr Zhou’s conversation as being with Henry Kissinger.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quip Origin: It’s Not the Fall That Hurts You; It’s the Sudden Stop at the End

Douglas Adams? Spike Milligan? Terry Pratchett? Charlie Bates? Harry Harrison? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: Prominent humorists have been credited with statements from the following family of jokes about collisions. Here are three examples:

(1) Falling doesn’t hurt you; it’s the sudden stop at the end.
(2) It isn’t the speed that kills people; it’s the sudden stop.
(3) Flying isn’t dangerous. Crashing is dangerous.

English author Douglas Adams, Irish comedian Spike Milligan, and English author Terry Pratchett have each received credit for telling jokes in this family. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: This joke is difficult to trace because it can be phrased in many ways. The earliest match located by QI appeared in 1853 within an anecdote published in “The Ladies’ Repository” magazine of New York. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

After a late supper, and two or three extra glasses, Charlie Bates is apt to be somnambulistic. Night before last, being an occasion of this kind, he backed himself out of his chamber window and fell to the pavement, a distance of ten or twelve feet. A passer-by came up to condole with him, remarking, “You seem to have had a bad fall.” “My dear sir,” answered Charlie, “the fall was a trifle not worth mentioning; but the sudden stop was decidedly unpleasant.”

Thus, this family of jokes began many years before Douglas Adams, Spike Milligan, and Terry Pratchett were born.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quip Origin: “What Is the Difference Between a Taxidermist and a Tax Collector?” “The Taxidermist Takes Only Your Skin”

Mark Twain? Merle Johnson? Albert Bigelow Paine?

Question for Quote Investigator: A famous humorist apparently said something like the following about taxation. Here are two versions:

(1) “What is the difference between a taxidermist and a tax collector?” “The taxidermist takes only your skin.”

(2) The difference between a tax collector and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist only takes your hide.

This quip has been attributed to Mark Twain. Would you please help me to determine the correct phrasing?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Mark Twain died in 1910, and the earliest published evidence located by QI appeared in a slim volume of Twain’s one-liners titled “More Maxims of Mark” compiled by Merle Johnson and privately printed in November 1927. The following three items appeared on page fourteen. The original text was all uppercase. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

We all live in the protection of certain cowardices which we call our principles.

We can’t reach old age by another man’s road. My habits protect my life but they would assassinate you.

What is the difference between a taxidermist and a tax collector? The taxidermist takes only your skin.

The quip also appeared in 1935 within “Mark Twain’s Notebook” which was published by Albert Bigelow Paine who was Twain’s literary executor. This book included observations, ideas, and diary-like material from Twain’s collection of notebooks. The following four items appeared in a section dated 1902:²

What is the difference between a taxidermist and a tax collector? The taxidermist takes only your skin.

Only he who has seen better days and lives to see better days again knows their full value.

Circumstances make man, not man circumstances.

You must not pay a person a compliment and then straightway follow it with a criticism.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.