Saying Origin: Good Science Fiction Can Predict the Automobile; Better SF Can Predict the Drive-In Theater; The Best SF Can Predict the Resultant Sexual Revolution

Gardner Dozois? Isaac Asimov? Robert Heinlein? Cory Doctorow? Apocryphal?

Picture of a drive-in movie theater from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: A competent science-fiction (SF) author can use the knowledge of automobiles and movie theaters to predict the creation of drive-in movie theaters. But an ingenious SF author can predict the dramatic shift in sexual behavior caused by these changes in mobility and privacy.

The prominent SF editor Gardner Dozois has received credit for presenting this notion, but I do not know the precise phrasing he used. Also, I do not know where his comment appeared. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1972 Gardner Dozois edited the short story anthology “A Day in the Life”. The remark by Dozois about the difficulty of making predictions was contained in the introduction to one of the tales. The following passage by Dozois contains the initialisms SAC and AEC. SAC referred to the Strategic Air Command of the U.S. which was responsible for operating strategic bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles. AEC referred to the Atomic Energy Commission of the U.S. which was responsible for overseeing nuclear energy. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1

It is a jump from predicting the atomic bomb to predicting atomic submarines or breeder reactors, and it is another jump from there to predicting SAC and the AEC. Few authors have accurately predicted the way the cultural changes will seep inside our everyday lives and alter the experience and quality of it: from SAC to the McCarthy trials.

Most SF can predict the car, some SF can predict the drive-in theater, but SF that can predict the changes in teen-age sexual behavior as a result of the drive-in is vanishingly rare.

Envisioning and depicting the indirect implications of technological advances is challenging. SF luminaries such as Isaac Asimov and Robert Heinlein also commented on this topic.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

In 1953 Isaac Asimov published the essay “Social Science Fiction”. He remarked that automobiles catalyzed the construction of suburbs. He also observed that vast networks of busy roadways resulted in large numbers of injuries and deaths. These indirect consequences of automobile usage were harder to foresee:2

It is easy to predict an automobile in 1880; it is very hard to predict a traffic problem. The former is really only an extrapolation of the railroad. The latter is something completely novel and unexpected.

A separate QI article about the quotation immediately above is available here.

In 1966 Robert Heinlein published an essay titled “Pandora’s Box”. He made a comment that was thematically similar to the later remark of Dozois. Heinlein noted that numerous people correctly predicted the arrival of the horseless carriage, but very few understood the secondary implications of this new form of transportation:3

But I know of no writer, fiction or non-fiction, who saw ahead of time the vast change in the courting and mating habits of Americans which would result primarily from the automobile—a change which the diaphragm and the oral contraceptive merely confirmed. So far as I know, no one even dreamed of the change in sex habits the automobile would set off.

In 1972 Gardner Dozois wrote about the difficulty of predicting indirect societal changes as mentioned previously:

Most SF can predict the car, some SF can predict the drive-in theater, but SF that can predict the changes in teen-age sexual behavior as a result of the drive-in is vanishingly rare.

In 1982 Seymour Perry published an essay titled “Technology Assessment in Medical Care: Appraisal and Conflict Resolution” which credited Dozois with a version of the saying:4

It is clear that technological innovation is not value-free, and that sometimes the costs are not only economic, but otherwise unforseeable. Gardner Dozois, the science fiction writer, recently wrote that from knowledge of the automobile and the motion picture, the drive-in movie could have been extrapolated. What was unforseeable was the effect of the drive-in on the sexual behavior of American teenagers.

In 2014 SF author Cory Doctorow published an essay titled “Cold Equations and Moral Hazard” on the “Locus” magazine website. Doctorow credited Dozois with a version of the saying:5

Legendary science fiction editor Gardner Dozois once said that the job of a science fiction writer was to notice the car and the movie theater and anticipate the drive-in – and then go on to predict the sexual revolution. I love that quote, because it highlights the key role of SF in examining the social consequences of technology – and because it shows how limited our social imaginations are.

In 2022 the collection “Terraform: Watch / Worlds / Burn” included an introduction by Cory Doctorow who credited Dozois with another version of the saying:6

The legendary science fiction writer Gardner Dozois used to say that the job of a science fiction writer is to consider the car and the movie theater and invent the drive-in, and then infer the existence of the sexual revolution.

In conclusion, Gardner Dozois deserves credit for his comment about the difficulty of making predictions. Dozois linked cars, drive-ins, and sexual behavior in 1972. Robert Heinlein made a similar point in 1966 although Heinlein did not mention drive-in theaters.

Image Notes: Picture of a drive-in movie theater from Jona at Unsplash. The image has been cropped and resized.

Acknowledgement: Great thanks to Alexander Shea whose inquiry led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration.

  1. 1972, A Day in the Life: A Science Fiction Anthology, Edited by Gardner R. Dozois, (Brief introduction by Gardner Dozois to Fritz Leiber’s short story “The Haunted Future”), Quote Page 154, Harper & Row, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
  2. 1953, Modern Science Fiction: Its Meaning and Its Future, Edited Reginald Bretnor, Chapter: Social Science Fiction by Isaac Asimov, Start Page 157, Quote Page 172, Coward-McCann, New York. (Verified with scans; Internet Archive) ↩︎
  3. 1972 Reprint (1966 Copyright), The Worlds of Robert A. Heinlein by Robert A. Heinlein, Introduction: Pandora’s Box, Start Page 7, Quote Page 28, Ace Books: A Division of Charter Communications, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
  4. 1982 Copyright, Value Conflicts in Health Care Delivery, Edited by Bart Gruzalski and ‎Carl Nelson, Chapter 12: Technology Assessment in Medical Care: Appraisal and Conflict Resolution by Seymour Perry, Start Page 193, Quote Page 194, Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge, Massachusetts: A Division of Harper & Row, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
  5. Website: Locus Magazine, Article title: Cory Doctorow: Cold Equations and Moral Hazard, Article author: Cory Doctorow, Date on website: March 2, 2014, Website description: Science fiction news and commentary. (Accessed locusmag.com on July 18, 2025) link ↩︎
  6. 2022, Terraform: Watch / Worlds / Burn, Edited by Brian Merchant and ‎Claire L. Evans, Introduction: You Are a Luddite by Cory Doctorow, Unnumbered Page, MCD and FSG Originals: Farrar, Straus and Giroux Ebook: Macmillan. (Google Books Preview) ↩︎