Robert Blatchford? Arthur Bugs Baer? Roy K. Moulton? Robert de Saint-Jean? Ford Madox Ford? Georges Clemenceau? P. L. Garvin? Anonymous?
Question for Quote Investigator: The nature of modern warfare is changing rapidly with new weaponry based on drones and machine learning. Yet, military planners are immersed in studying past battles. Here are two versions of a pertinent maxim:
(1) Generals are always preparing to fight the last war.
(2) The military always prepares for the previous war.
Would you please explore the provenance of this saying?
Reply from Quote Investigator: This adage can be expressed in many ways; hence, it is difficult to trace. Below is an overview summarizing the evolution of this saying:
1919 Nov: The ordinary statesman or military man is generally obsessed by bygone ideas and methods. He always prepares for the last war (Robert Blatchford)
1920 Dec: The national motto is: In time of peace prepare for war. We are still preparing for the last war (Arthur “Bugs” Baer)
1923 Jan: The trouble with statesmen who come over here from Europe is that they all come over to fight the last war (Roy K. Moulton)
1927 Feb: A huge fleet is always preparing for the last war, always blind to the probabilities of the future (Anonymous)
1928 Aug: Military correspondents are always preparing for the last war (Pseudonym Civilian)
1929 Jan: There is a tendency in many armies to spend the peace time studying how to fight the last war (Anonymous)
1930 Jan: Naval experts … invariably go on preparing for the “last war” (Anonymous)
1930 Feb: We are always preparing for the last war (Attributed to “very eminent sailor”)
1930 Mar: The war for which the generals prepare is always the last war (Attributed to Ford Madox Ford)
1930 Sep: Our generals always prepared for the previous war (Attributed to unnamed author of a war novel)
1933 Mar: The war the generals always prepare for is the last war (Anonymous)
1933 Apr: All generals always prepare for the last war (Anonymous)
1933 Oct: War always finds the generals preparing for the last war (P. L. Garvin)
1933 Oct: Comme les généraux qui préparent toujours la dernière guerre (Robert de Saint-Jean)
1938: The military always fight the last war over again (Attributed to Georges Clemenceau)
1940 Apr: Generals always prepare for the previous war (Anonymous)
Below are details for selected citations in chronological order.
In 1919 “The Clarion” newspaper of London, England published an opinion piece by English journalist Robert Blatchford about military spending which contained the following. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
The ordinary statesman or military man is generally obsessed by bygone ideas and methods. He always prepares for the last war, and it is necessary to prepare for the next. For instance, the conservative idea would be to build greater and greater battleships, with bigger and bigger guns. But Sir Percy Scott declares that the super-Dreadnought is obsolete.
In 1920 humorist Arthur “Bugs” Baer presented a motto together with a comment which overlapped the proverb under examination:2
The national motto is: In time of peace prepare for war. We are still preparing for the last war. We now have more binoculars and field glasses than any nation in the world, showing we ain’t even scared of Mars.
In 1923 newspaper columnist Roy K. Moulton wrote about visitors coming to the U.S.:3
The trouble with statesmen who come over here from Europe is that they all come over to fight the last war, and we don’t mind saying that the last war is a very tender and embarrassing subject in this neck of the woods.
In 1927 the “Daily Mirror” of London presented a naval version of the saying:4
The “safety first” school of high taxes and a huge fleet is always preparing for the last war, always blind to the probabilities of the future. Yet, as Lord Oxford says, the traditional instruments of warfare are many of them obsolete …
In 1928 the “Daily Mirror” of London printed a letter to the editor from a person using the pseudonym Civilian which contained the following:5
Military correspondents are always preparing for the last war. Which of them warned us about the trench stalemate on the Western front?
In 1929 “The Military Engineer” journal printed a piece by J. L. Schley which contained an instance referring to “many armies”:6
It has been said critically that there is a tendency in many armies to spend the peace time studying how to fight the last war. Nevertheless, our experiences must have their bearing on our plans for the future, although, in our training, we must visualize the probable future enemies and theaters of operations.
In January 1930 the “Manchester Evening News” of England printed a lengthy instance tailored to the Royal Navy:7
Naval experts, whose job keeps them in a groove, are reluctant to admit that circumstances have radically changed. They invariably go on preparing for the “last war.” At present, as a great trading nation, our primary interest is to preserve peace and to work for the complete outlawry of war.
In February 1930 a newspaper in Southampton, England attributed a concise instance to a “very eminent sailor”:8
We were always thinking of the next war in terms of the last. As a very eminent sailor said to the speaker not long ago: “We are always preparing for the last war.”
In March 1930 a newspaper in Great Falls, Montana attributed an instance of the saying to the prominent English novelist Ford Madox Ford. QI was unable to find the saying in the book “No Enemy”:9
NO COUNTRY HAS EVER BEEN PREPARED ADEQUATELY FOR ANY WAR. And, what is more, no country ever will be. No two wars are alike. “The war for which the generals prepare is always the last war,” said Ford Madox Ford in his book, “No Enemy.”
In September 1930 “The Graphic” newspaper of London printed attributed an instance to an unnamed war novelist:10
That peculiarly British state of mind which allows tradition to triumph over experience must be very interesting to the intelligent foreigner. The author of one of the numerous war novels acutely remarked that our generals always prepared for the previous war. In the same way, we always prepare for weather conditions which have ceased to exist—if they ever did.
In March 1933 the “Long Beach Press-Telegram” of California printed an instance with an anonymous attribution:11
There is a saying that the war the generals always prepare for is the last war.
In April 1933 “The Detroit Free Press” printed a concise instance:12
As the long, disastrous months began to prove the axiom that all generals always prepare for the last war, the tide began to turn against the beribboned “brass hats” of the Old Army, and civilians began to conduct the war.
In October 1933 “The Kansas City Star” of Missouri attributed an instance to British editor P. L. Garvin:13
Commenting on Mr. Lloyd George’s Memoirs, P. L. Garvin, distinguished editor of the London Observer, remarks on the stupidity of the British war department which insisted on providing shrapnel which had been useful in the Boer War, when the need was for high explosive shells. “War,” he says, “always finds the generals preparing for the last war.”
Also, in October 1933 a French version of the saying appeared in an article by journalist Robert de Saint-Jean in the pages of “La Revue Hebdomadaire” (“The Weekly Review”). The French passage below is followed by an English translation:14
Il est vrai que les plus grands esprits, lorsqu’ils ont cédé à la tentation dangereuse de prédire, ont entassé les erreurs, le plus souvent parce qu’ils construisaient le futur avec des images du passé (comme les généraux qui préparent toujours la dernière guerre) …
It is true that the greatest minds, when they have succumbed to the dangerous temptation of predicting the future, have piled up errors, most often because they constructed the future with images of the past (like generals who always prepare for the last war) …
In 1938 the saying was attributed to French statesman Georges Clemenceau:15
If Clemenceau was right when he observed that the military always fight the last war over again, I do not anticipate that in the next war it will be found that matters in this respect have changed much …
In 1940 a concise anonymous instance appeared in “The Kansas City Star” of Missouri:16
It has been observed a number of times that generals always prepare for the previous war and that markets have that same tendency.
In conclusion, Robert Blatchford penned a strong match for this proverb in 1919 although this formulation was not concise. The saying evolved during subsequent decades. A version using the word “generals” was credited to Ford Madox Ford in March 1930 although QI has not found substantive support for this attribution. A concise version using “general” was called an axiom in April 1933.
Image Notes: Non-military drone flying above a foggy scene from Ian Usher at Unsplash. The image has been cropped and resized.
Acknowledgements: Great thanks to Fred Shapiro, Bill Mullaney, Ira Rosofsky whose inquiries led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Many thanks to Charles Doyle who accessed the 1933 citation in “La Revue Hebdomadaire”. Also, thanks to “The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs” which explored this proverb and presented valuable citations beginning in 1934. Additional thanks to researcher Barry Popik who examined this proverb and presented helpful citations beginning in 1923. Also, thanks to members of the Project Wombat group including discussants: Anne, Darryl Eschete, Katherine Harper, Michael J. Lowrey, and T. F. Mills.
- 1919 November 7, The Clarion, Of Bloated Armaments by Robert Blatchford, Quote Page 1, Column 4, London, England. (British Newspaper Archive) ↩︎
- 1920 December 31, The Washington Times, Mr. B. Baer on Taxicabs of War by (Arthur “Bugs” Baer), Quote Page 16, Column 4, Washington, District of Columbia. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1923 January 13, Wilmington Morning News, Much Ado About Nothing, Registered in U.S. Patent Office by Roy K. Moulton, Quote Page 4, Column 8, Wilmington, Delaware. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1927 February 23, Daily Mirror, War and Waste, Quote Page 7, Column 1, London, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1928 August 22, Daily Mirror, What Our Readers Have To Say, Letter from: Civilian, Quote Page 13, Column 3, London, England. (British Newspaper Archive) ↩︎
- 1929 January-February, The Military Engineer, Volume 21, Number 115, Some Notes on the World War by J. L. Schley (Lieutenant Colonel, Corps of Engineers), Start Page 55, Quote Page 55, Column 1, Society of American Military Engineers, Alexandria, Virginia. (Verified on paper) link ↩︎
- 1930 January 27, Manchester Evening News, Naval Cuts, Quote Page 6, Column 3, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1930 February 17, Southern Daily Echo, How To Stop New Naval Rivalry, Quote Page 7, Column 3, Southampton, Hampshire, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1930 March 22, The Great Falls Leader, Preparedness, Quote Page 4, Column 1, Great Falls, Montana. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1930 September 6, The Graphic, Week after Week, Quote Page 10 (372), Column 1, London, England. (British Newspaper Archive) ↩︎
- 1933 March 24, Long Beach Press-Telegram, Hit and Miss by Harold Williams, Quote Page B12, Column 5, Long Beach, California. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1933 April 30, The Detroit Free Press, North Sea Gold Salvaging Revives Mysteries of Kitchener’s Life and Death: A Strange Tale of Revenge Among Legends About Lord, Section 2, Quote Page 10, Column 2, Detroit, Michigan. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1933 October 15, The Kansas City Star, Fateful Years – 1914 and 1933: Some Random Thoughts, Quote Page 8D, Column 3, Kansas City, Missouri. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1933 Octobre 21, La Revue Hebdomadaire (The Weekly Review), Numéro 42, Article: La Vie Littéraire by Robert de Saint-Jean, Start Page 359, Quote Page 362, A La Librairie Plon, Paris. (BNF Gallica) ↩︎
- 1938, World of Action by Valentine Williams, Chapter 15: Sir Henry Wilson, Quote Page 208, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, Massachusetts. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1940 April 21, The Kansas City Star, Business News and Comment by David B. Park (The Star’s Financial Editor), Quote Page 9D, Column 3, Kansas City, Missouri. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎