Quote Origin: One Half of What I Have Told You May Be Proved Untrue. Unfortunately, I Cannot Tell You Which Half

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Charles Sidney Burwell? Charles F. Kettering? Helen Clapesattle? Carl Sandburg? Camille Pierre Dadant? Josh Billings? William Osler? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator Educators and researchers know that knowledge in fields like science and medicine is continuously growing and changing. Thus, today’s verities become tomorrow’s fallacies. A lecturer once candidly admitted these weaknesses by saying something like the following:

Half of what we are teaching you is wrong. Unfortunately, we don’t know which half.

This humble message has been attributed to Charles Sidney Burwell who was Dean of the Harvard Medical School, Charles F. Kettering who was the head of research at General Motors Corporation, and Carl Sandburg who was a poet and historian. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: This is a difficult saying to trace because it can be expressed in many ways. The earliest match located by QI appeared in a talk delivered at an agricultural conference in 1917 by Camille Pierre Dadant who was the editor of “American Bee Journal”. Dadant spoke about bees and horticulture while acknowledging the limitations of contemporary scientific insights:1

It is quite probable that half of what I am going to tell you to-day ain’t so, but I don’t know which half. It will be for you to find out. [Laughter.]

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

A precursor occurred during a conversation between biographer James Boswell and the famous lexicographer Samuel Johnson in 1783:2

Talking of an acquaintance of ours, whose narratives, which abounded in curious and interesting topicks, were unhappily found to be very fabulous; I mentioned Lord Mansfield’s having said to me, “Suppose we believe one half of what he tells.”

JOHNSON. “Ay; but we don’t know which half to believe. By his lying we lose not only our reverence for him, but all comfort in his conversation.”

Adages which encourage skepticism have a long history.  For example, in 1831 William Johnson Neale published the novel “Cavendish: Or The Patrician at Sea” in which a character who was a naval officer employed the following adage:3

“The rule with us is, believe nothing you hear, and but half you see.”

A separate Quote Investigator article about the above saying is available here.

In 1874 humorist Josh Billings (pen name of Henry Wheeler Shaw) published “Everybody’s Friend or Josh Billing’s Encyclopedia and Proverbial Philosophy of Wit and Humor” which included two thematically related sayings:4

I honestly beleave it iz better tew know nothing than two know what ain’t so.

Wisdum don’t konsist in knowing more that iz new, but in knowing less that iz false.

Here is the standard spelling for these remarks:

I honestly believe it is better to know nothing than to know what ain’t so.

Wisdom don’t consist in knowing more that is new, but in knowing less that is false

Josh Billings deserves credit for remarks immediately above, and a separate QI article is available here.

In 1890 a beekeeper named E. D. Keeney tentatively attributed a different remark to Josh Billings that was probably inspired by the authentic sayings above:5

I think it was Josh Billings who asked the question, “What’s the use of learning so much, when half you learn ain’t so?” I have thought of it often during the last year, when reading the different articles in bee-periodicals …

QI has been unable to find evidence that Billings made the statement immediately above, but the remark influenced prominent beekeeper Camille Pierre Dadant. In February 1917 Dadant delivered a lecture at an agricultural conference, and he employed the saying under examination as mentioned previously:6

Josh Billings said: “What is the use of knowing so much when half of what we do know ain’t so?” [Laughter]

It is quite probable that half of what I am going to tell you to-day ain’t so, but I don’t know which half. It will be for you to find out. [Laughter.]

In 1919 a thematically related expression about advertising appeared in a speech delivered at a bible conference held in Indiana. Reverend Roy L. Smith spoke about “The Salesmanship of Preaching”, and he ascribed a statement to U.S. merchant John Wanamaker:7

John Wanamaker once said, “I am convinced that about one-half the money I spend for advertising is wasted, but I have never been able to decide which half.”

A separate Quote Investigator article about the above saying is available here.

In April 1944 historian Helen Clapesattle of the University of Minnesota published a book review in “The American Historical Review”. She credited an instance of the saying to an unnamed medical professor:8

The story is told of a well-known professor of medicine who always at the year’s end says to his class: “Gentlemen, I have done my best to give you the latest and most accurate medical facts. But now I must warn you that before you have been long in practice one half of what I have told you may be proved untrue. Unfortunately, gentlemen, I cannot tell you which half.”

In September 1944 a newspaper columnist reported that Charles F. Kettering credited an unnamed medical professor with the saying:9

Charles F. Kettering, General Motors research director and inventor of the automobile self-starter, tells of a friend of his, a professor at a famed medical school, whose every word is written down by his eager young students. On graduating day, when he delivers his last lecture he generally says this to the class:

“I’ve been lecturing to you boys on medicine for the last four years—but I’m afraid that half of what I told you is wrong. The trouble is, I don’t know which half.”

In 1948 Carl Sandburg published a novel titled “Remembrance Rock” which contained an instance:10

The elder Rolstadt, after talking about the restlessness of the world of science in its search for new facts and fresh light, told of a well-known professor at a medical college speaking to his class at the end of the year and saying: “Young gentlemen, you are well aware, I believe, I have labored and done my best to give you the latest and most accurate medical facts. Now however the time has come I must warn you that before you have been long in practice one half of what I have told you may be proved untrue. Unfortunately, gentlemen, I cannot tell you which half.”

In 1952 the medical journal “The Lancet” published an address delivered by G. W. Pickering who was a Professor of Medicine at the University of London. Pickering credited the saying to a Dean of Harvard University:11

As the Dean of Harvard said at a Harvard dinner which I attended: “I tell my students that in ten years’ time half of what you are taught will have been shown to be wrong, and the trouble is that neither I nor any of your teachers know which half.”

In 1968 a syndicated columnist attributed the saying to Charles Sidney Burwell who was the Dean of the Harvard Medical School between 1935 and 1949:12

Some years ago, Dr. Sidney Burwell, was addressing the entering class at Harvard Medical School and said: “Gentlemen, in the next four years here at school, we will teach you as much as we possibly can of the latest theories and interpretations of disease and all of its varieties and insidious forms. But medical science is progressing so rapidly that by the time you have finished your four-year course, one-half of what we tell you will have been, by that time, proven incorrect, and unfortunately, we cannot tell you which half it’s going to be.”

In 1971 an article in the “Bulletin of the History of Medicine” attributed the saying to prominent medical educator William Osler who was one of the founders of Johns Hopkins Hospital:13

It is said that Osler once reminded a graduating class that half of what they had just been taught would be abandoned within fifty years, but unfortunately no one knew which half. But he did not argue from this that either half should have been omitted.

In 1977 doctors Henry K. Beecher and ‎Mark D. Altschule published “Medicine at Harvard: The First Three Hundred Years”. The authors attributed the saying to Burwell. The work contained extensive footnotes. Sadly, no footnote accompanied this ascription:14

He will be remembered forever for his statement to a graduating class on the occasion of their final formal convocation: “Half of what we have taught you is wrong. Unfortunately we do not know which half.” After his retirement as Dean, assumed infallibility became more common in high places.

In 1982 “The New England Journal of Medicine” printed a book review crediting Burwell with the saying:15

As Dean C. Sidney Burwell told a graduating class at Harvard Medical School: “Half of what we have taught you is wrong. Unfortunately we do not know which half.” This is unquestionably true in such a young field as neonatology, and many of the practices described are now outdated.

In conclusion, based on the 1917 citation the earliest use of this saying occurred in a speech by beekeeper Camille Pierre Dadant. The saying transitioned to the domain of medical education by 1944 when it was attributed to an unidentified professor of medicine. In 1952 medical doctor G. W. Pickering stated that he heard the saying directly from a Harvard dean during a dinner. QI conjectures that Pickering was referring to Charles Sidney Burwell who was the Dean of the Harvard Medical School up to 1949. Charles F. Kettering and Carl Sandburg both used the expression, but neither assumed credit.

Image Notes: Public domain illustration of multi-colored question marks from geralt at Pixabay. Image has been cropped and resized.

Acknowledgement: Great thanks to Jonathan Lighter and Marc Sacks whose comments led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Special thanks to researcher Barry Popik whose exploration of a related expression about advertising led him to identify the Boswell precursor and to locate pertinent citations beginning in 1953. Thanks to  Kelly Locke who pointed out the related saying: “Believe nothing you hear, and but half you see”.

Update History: On October 15, 2024 the format of the bibliographical notes was updated. On October 20, 2024 the 1831 and 1919 citations were added to the article together with cross-links to other QI articles.

  1. 1917, The Twenty-Second Annual Report of the Illinois Farmers’ Institute: A Handbook of Agriculture, Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Annual Meeting, Held in Streator, Illinois on February 21, 22, and 23, 1917, Friday Afternoon Session on February 23, 1917, The Usefulness of Bees in Horticulture and the Value of Honey as a Diet by Mr. C. P. Dadant, Start Page 176, Quote Page 177, Illinois State Journal Company, Springfield, Illinois. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  2. 1830, The Life of Samuel Johnson by James Boswell, Year: 1783, Quote Page 532, Column 1, Published by John Sharpe, London. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  3. 1831, Cavendish: Or The Patrician at Sea by Anonymous (William Johnson Neale), Volume 1 of 3, Chapter 5, Quote Page 59, Henry Colburn and Richard Bentley, London. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  4. 1874, Everybody’s Friend, Or; Josh Billing’s Encyclopedia and Proverbial Philosophy of Wit and Humor, Section: Affurisms: Sollum Thoughts, Quote Page 286, American Publishing Company, Hartford, Connecticut. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  5. 1890 August, Gleanings in Bee Culture, Keeney’s Comb-Spacer: A Device To Get Rid of Burr-Combs Thick Top-Bars, and Honey-Boards by E. D. Keeney, Quote Page 556, A. I. Root Company, Medina, Ohio. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  6. 1917, The Twenty-Second Annual Report of the Illinois Farmers’ Institute: A Handbook of Agriculture, Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Annual Meeting, Held in Streator, Illinois on February 21, 22, and 23, 1917, Friday Afternoon Session on February 23, 1917, The Usefulness of Bees in Horticulture and the Value of Honey as a Diet by Mr. C. P. Dadant, Start Page 176, Quote Page 177, Illinois State Journal Company, Springfield, Illinois. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  7. 1919, Winona Echoes: Addresses Delivered at the Winona Bible Conference, Held in Winona Lake, Indiana in August 1919, The Salesmanship of Preaching by Reverend Roy L. Smith, Start Page 333, Quote Page 333, Published by Authority of Winona Publishing Society. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
  8. 1944 April, The American Historical Review, Volume 49, Number 3, Book Review by Helen Clapesattle (University of Minnesota) of the book “A Hundred Years of Medicine”, Quote Page 455, Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Historical Association. (JSTOR) link ↩︎
  9. 1944 September 10, The Courier-Journal, Section: Roto Magazine, Off the Cuff by Ed Edstrom, Quote Page 26, Column 2, Louisville, Kentucky. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
  10. 1948 Copyright, Remembrance Rock by Carl Sandburg, Epilogue: Storm and Stars, Chapter 4: Floodlights on the Capitol Dome, Quote Page 1015, Harcourt, Brace & World, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
  11. 1952 November 8, The Lancet, Opportunity and the Universities by G. W. Pickering (Professor of Medicine in the University of London at St. Mary’s Hospital), Note: An address delivered at the inaugural session of the Medical School of the University of Birmingham on Oct. 6, 1952, Start Page 895, Quote Page 896, Column 2, Published by Elsevier. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
  12. 1968 April 18, The Ada Weekly News, The Bible Speaks by Lawrence W. Althouse, Quote Page 4, Column 3, Ada, Oklahoma. (The newspaper text used the misspelling “insideious”) (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
  13. 1971 November-December, Bulletin of the History of Medicine, Volume 45, Number 6, “The Fielding H. Garrison Lecture”: The Medical Reputation of Benjamin Rush: Contrasts over Two Centuries by Richard Harrison Shryock, Start Page 507, Quote Page 548, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland. (ProQuest) ↩︎
  14. 1977, Medicine at Harvard: The First Three Hundred Years by Henry K. Beecher and ‎Mark D. Altschule, Chapter 9: David Linn Edsall, Dean of Deans, 1918-1935, Quote Page 211, The University Press of New England, Hanover, New Hampshire. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
  15. 1982 May 13, The New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 306, Number 19, Section: Book Reviews, Book review title: Born at Risk, Book review by Barry T. Smith M.D of Harvard Medical School, Start Page 1185, Quote Page 1186, Boston, Massachusetts. (ProQuest) ↩︎