There Are Three Kinds of Lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Mark Twain? Benjamin Disraeli? St. Swithin? Eliza Gutch? Charles Dilke? Charles Stewart Parnell? Robert Giffen? Arthur James Balfour? Francis Bacon? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: Statistical analysis can provide deep insights into an issue. Yet, carelessness or duplicity can generate misleading results. A popular cynical adage communicates this mistrust:

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

These words have been attributed to prominent humorist Mark Twain, British statesman Benjamin Disraeli, and others. Do you know who should receive credit? Would you please explore this topic?

Quote Investigator: Mark Twain did include this saying in an installment of his autobiography which he published in 1907; however, he did not claim to be the originator; instead, Twain credited Benjamin Disraeli. Yet, there is no substantive evidence that Disraeli crafted this remark. He died in 1881, and the remark was attributed to him posthumously by 1895.

Tracing this saying is a complex task because the expression evolved over time. Changes were incremental, and there was no single originator who deserved credit. Here is an overview showing key phrases, dates, and attributions.

1882 Apr 04: three classes—liars, great liars, and scientific witnesses (Attributed to “well-known Judge”)

1885 Jun 27: three sorts of liars, the common or garden liar … the damnable liar … and lastly the expert (Attributed to “counsel”)

1885 Nov 26: grouped witnesses into three classes: simple liars, damned liars, and experts (Attributed to “well-known lawyer”)

1886 Apr 10: three kinds of liars who testify in courts: “Lawyers, liars and experts” (Attributed to “distinguished judge”)

1889 Aug 12: There are liars, and d—-d liars and experts (Attributed to “eminent judge”)

1891 Jun 13: three kinds of falsehood: the first is a ‘fib,’ the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics (Anonymous)

1891 Oct 10: There are three degrees of falsehood: the first is a fib, the second is a lie, and then come statistics (Anonymous)

1891 Oct 14: there were three degrees of untruth—a fib, a lie, and statistics (Charles Dilke)

1891 Oct 19: false statements might be arranged according to their degree under three heads, fibs, lies, and statistics. (Attributed to Charles Dilke)

1891 Oct 28: Mr. Parnell’s dictum respecting fibs, lies, and statistics (Attributed to Charles Stewart Parnell)

1891 Nov 07: classifies falsehood under three heads: 1, the fib; 2, the lie; 3, statistics (Attributed to Mark Twain)

1892: three degrees of unveracity—“Lies, d——d lies, and statistics.” (Attributed to “some wit”)

1892 Jan: There are lies, there are outrageous lies, and there are statistics (Anonymous)

1892 Feb: three degrees in liars: the liar simple, the d — d liar, and the expert witness (Anonymous)

1892 Jun 28: three kinds of unveracity—namely, lies, damned lies, and statistics (Arthur James Balfour)

1895 July 27: three degrees of veracity—viz., lies d—d lies, and statistics (Attributed to Lord Beaconsfield, i.e., Benjamin Disraeli)

1907 Jul 5: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics (Attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain)

QI gives great thanks to previous researchers particularly Stephen Goranson and Peter M. Lee who located many of the citations mentioned above.

Below are selected citations in chronological order.

The notion of splitting lies into three different categories has a long history although the groupings have varied. The influential 13th century philosopher and theologian Thomas Aquinas discussed lying in his famous work “Summa Theologica” which was written in Latin. Here is an English rendering of the title of a pertinent section:^[1]1922, The “Summa Theologica” of St. Thomas Aquinas, Part II, Second Part, Literally Translated by Fathers of the English Dominican Province, Question 110, Article 2, Quote Page 88, Burn … Continue reading

Whether Lies Are Sufficiently Divided Into Officious, Jocose and Mischievous Lies?

Aquinas concluded that this division was inadequate, and he presented a different framework.

The prominent English philosopher Francis Bacon who died in 1626 wrote about lying within an essay titled “Simulation and Dissimulation”. He also presented a tripartite analysis:^[2]1701, The Essays, Or Councils, Civil and Moral of Sir. Francis Bacon, Essay VI: Of Simulation and Dissimulation, Start Page 12, Quote Page 13, Printed by E. Holt for Henry Herringman, London. (Google … Continue reading

There are three degrees of this hiding and veiling of Mans self. The first, Closeness, Reservation, and Secrecy; when a Man leaveth himself without observation, or without hold to be taken what he is. the Second Dissimulation in the negative, when a Man lets fall Signs and Arguments, that he is not that he is. and the third Simulation in the Affirmative, when a man industriously and expressly feigns and pretends to be that he is not.

In 1874 Alfred Nevin published “Notes: Exegetical, Practical and Devotional, on the Book of Exodus”, and he echoed Aquinas by mentioning three kinds of lies:^[3]1874, Notes: Exegetical, Practical and Devotional, on the Book of Exodus by Alfred Nevin, Third Edition, Chapter 19, Quote Page 241 and 242, Claxton, Remsen & Haffelfinger, Philadelphia, … Continue reading

Lies are commonly distinguished into three kinds: First, there are malicious or pernicious lies, or lies the design of which is to do mischief. These are universally condemned. Secondly, there are jocose lies, or lies told for the purpose of amusement and merriment. However common these are, and however lightly they are thought of, a strict moralist will condemn them also, because truth is too sacred to be trifled with. Thirdly, there are officious lies, which are so called because they are intended to promote the benefit of others.

In 1882 “The Times” of London printed a tripartite analysis of lying. The testimony of scientific witnesses was viewed skeptically:^[4] 1882 April 4, The Times, Parliamentary Summary, Quote Page 9, Column 3, London, England. (Newspapers_com)

The evidence of experts is apt to be listened to with incredulity, and the saying of a well-known Judge that liars might be divided into three classes—liars, great liars, and scientific witnesses—recommends itself to many.

In May 1885 “The Saturday Review” of London presented a different analysis of lying:^[5] 1885 May 16, The Saturday Review, Liberationism in Scotland, Quote Page 649, Column 2, Published at the Office of The Saturday Review, London. (Google Books Full View) link

Brag is bad, but fibs are worse; and a mixture of brag and fibs is worst of all; and this is what we find in the Liberationist statistics, as exhibited in the Society’s “Case for Disestablishment, 1884.”

In June 1885 “The Accountant” periodical of London presented another tripartite analysis of lying. The testimony of experts was lambasted:^[6]1885 June 27, The Accountant: A Medium of Communication Between Accountants in All Parts of the United Kingdom, (Untitled short item), Quote Page 15, Column 2, Office of “The Accountant”, … Continue reading

An expert in a sewage case described a particular river in which sewage was allowed to flow, a stream of crystalline purity. Whereupon counsel on the other side was heard to explain to his client that there were three sorts of liars, the common or garden liar to be found anywhere and everywhere, the damnable liar who is fortunately rather a rara avis in decent society, and lastly the expert, who when giving evidence is always splendidly mendacious, and altogether surpassing either of the other classes already instanced.

In November 1885 the science journal “Nature” of London printed a similar categorization of liars:^[7] 1885 November 26, Nature, Volume 33, The Whole Duty of a Chemist, Start Page 73, Quote Page 74, Macmillan and Company, London. (Google Books Full View) link

A well-known lawyer, now a judge, once grouped witnesses into three classes: simple liars, damned liars, and experts. He did not mean that the expert uttered things which he knew to be untrue, but that by the emphasis which he laid on certain statements, and by what has been defined as a highly cultivated faculty of evasion, the effect was actually worse than if he had.

On April 9, 1886 “The Central Law Journal” of St. Louis, Missouri printed an expurgated version of the categorization. The word “damned” was replaced by dashes:^[8] 1886 April 9, The Central Law Journal, Volume 22, Number 15, Jetsam and Flotsam, Quote Page 359, Column 2, William H. Stevenson, St. Louis, Missouri. (Google Books Full View) link

A distinguished judge of this State says there are three kinds of liars who testify in courts: “Liars, —— liars and experts.” That is sound, even if profane.—Albany Law Journal.

On April 10, 1886 “The Kansas Law Journal” of Topeka, Kansas printed an instance that criticized lawyers:^[9]1886 April 10, The Kansas Law Journal: A Weekly Record of the Law and Lawyers of Kansas, Volume 3, Number 9, Notes, Quote Page 143, George W. Crane & Company, Printers and Publishers, Topeka, … Continue reading

A certain distinguished judge says there are three kinds of liars who testify in courts: “Lawyers, liars and experts.” That is sound, even if profane.

In 1888 a piece in “The Medical and Surgical Reporter” of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania referred back to the analysis given in “The Times” of London:^[10] 1888 January 14, The Medical and Surgical Reporter, Volume 58, Number 2, News and Miscellany: Humor, Quote Page 66, Column 1, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Google Books Full View) link

An English judge is said to have laid it down from the bench in 1882 (see Times report, October 4 of that year) that “liars may be divided into three classes: Liars, great liars, scientific witnesses.”

On August 12, 1889 the “Pall Mall Gazette” of London printed an instance:^[11] 1889 August 12, Pall Mall Gazette, Retrying the Maybrick Case: A Judicial Opinion of “Expert’ Witnesses, Quote Page 7, Column 1, London, England. (British Newspaper Archive)

An eminent judge is said to have expressed his opinion of paid witnesses as follows:–“There are liars, and d—-d liars and experts.” The Maybrick case was principally settled by experts, and the judge may have had the opinion as above.

A speaker at a meeting of the New York State Stenographers’ Association in 1889 presented the following analysis with three categories:^[12]1889, Proceedings of the New York State Stenographers’ Association, at the Fourteenth Annual Meeting Held at the Crossman House, Alexandria, Jefferson Co., August 20th and 21st, 1889, Stenographic … Continue reading

I have a friend, an old and respected lawyer, who says that after fifty years active practice at the bar he has adopted the following declination of a certain class of witnesses: positive, liar; comparative, great big liar (or words to that effect); superlative, expert witness.

On June 13, 1891 “The National Observer” of London published a letter from T. Mackay about lying. This is the first instance known to QI in this family of sayings that employed the word “statistics”. The attribution was anonymous:^[13]1891 June 13, The National Observer, Letter to the Editor, Letter title: National Pensions, Letter date: June 8, 1891, Letter from: T. Mackay, Start Page 93, Quote Page 93, Column 2, London, England. … Continue reading

Sir,—It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a ‘fib,’ the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics that the advocate of national pensions relies.

On June 27, 1891 “The Preston Herald” of Lancashire, England printed a similar statement:^[14] 1891 June 27, The Preston Herald, Trifles, Quote Page 11, Column 6, Lancashire, England. (British Newspaper Archive)

There are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a “fib,” the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics.

On October 10, 1891 the literary journal “Notes and Queries” of London published an inquiry on this topic from prominent English folklorist Eliza Gutch who used the pseudonym St. Swithin:^[15]1891 October 10, Notes and Queries: A Medium of Intercommunication for Literary Men, General Readers, Etc., Section: Queries, Quote Page 288, Published by John G. Francis at the Office of Notes and … Continue reading

DEGREES OF FALSEHOOD,—Who was it who said, “There are three degrees of falsehood: the first is a fib, the second is a lie, and then come statistics”?
ST. SWITHIN.

On October 14, 1891 the English politician Charles Dilke attended a protest meeting of slate quarrymen in Wales. The following day “The Morning Post” of London reported that Dilke used an instance of the expression during his speech:^[16] 1891 October 15, The Morning Post, Sir Charles Dilke at Festiniog, Quote Page 2, Column 2, London, England. (British Newspaper Archive)

Sir Charles Dilke, on rising to support a motion in favour of boards of conciliation, was received with cheers, mingled with hisses. He alluded incidentally to the Church Congress, and observed that the speeches of the bishops on the disestablishment question reminded him that there were three degrees of untruth—a fib, a lie, and statistics.

On the same day the story and quotation above appeared in other newspapers such as the “South Wales Echo” of Cardiff, Wales.^[17] 1891 October 15, South Wales Echo, Quote Page 2, Column 8, Glamorgan, Wales. (British Newspaper Archive) During subsequent days the story continued to appear. For example, on October 19, 1891 “The Bristol Mercury” credited Dilke with a similar remark:^[18] 1891 October 19, The Bristol Mercury and Daily Post, The Wellington Division, Quote Page 5, Column 4, Bristol, England. (British Newspaper Archive)

Sir Charles Dilke was saying the other day that false statements might be arranged according to their degree under three heads, fibs, lies, and statistics.

On October 28, 1891 a letter printed in the “The Yorkshire Post” of England discussed correct and incorrect methods for counting the number of attendees at Roman Catholic religious services. The letter writer attributed an instance of the saying to Irish politician Charles Stewart Parnell:^[19]1891 October 28, Yorkshire Post and Leeds Intelligencer, The Religious Census in Liverpool, (Letter to the Editor of The Yorkshire Post), Quote Page 3, Column 7, West Yorkshire, England. (British … Continue reading

Thus real information would be afforded as the relative numbers of worshippers, and Mr. Parnell’s dictum respecting fibs, lies, and statistics might—in one instance at least—be falsified.

On November 7, 1891 a letter printed in the “The British Medical Journal” of London attributed an instance to Mark Twain:^[20]1891 November 7, The British Medical Journal, Topic: Efficient Vaccination, Letter from Allen McCulloch (Public Vaccinator, Tarporley District, Nantwich Union), Quote Page 1020, Column 1, Published … Continue reading

Mark Twain classifies falsehood under three heads: 1, the fib; 2, the lie; 3, statistics.

In 1892 Cornelia A. H. Crosse published “Red-Letter Days of My Life”, and she ascribed an instance to an anonymous wit:^[21]1892, Red-Letter Days of My Life by Mrs. Andrew Crosse (Cornelia A. H. Crosse), Volume 2 of 2, Chapter: Old Memories Interviewed, Quote Page 328, Richard Bentley & Son, London. (Google Books Full … Continue reading

It has been said by some wit that there are three degrees of unveracity—“Lies, d——d lies, and statistics.” The science has had a good many hard things said of the use that Buckle and other authors have made of it in the arbitrary classification of facts.

In January 1892 statistician Robert Giffen delivered a paper at the Australasian Association for the Advancement of Science. He astutely commented on the evolution of this family of sayings:^[22]June 1892, The Economic Journal: The Journal of the British Economic Association, Volume 2, Number 6, On International Statistical Comparisons by Robert Giffen, (Paper read at the meeting of the … Continue reading

An old jest runs to the effect that there are three degrees of comparison among liars. There are liars, there are outrageous liars, and there are scientific experts. This has lately been adapted to throw dirt upon statistics. There are three degrees of comparison, it is said, in lying. There are lies, there are outrageous lies, and there are statistics. Statisticians can afford to laugh at and profit by jests at their expense.

Versions of the saying which criticized “expert witnesses” continued to circulate in February 1892. “The Travelers Record” of Hartford, Connecticut printed the following:^[23] 1892 February, The Travelers Record, Volume 27, Number 11, Comparative Liars, Quote Page 8, Column 1, Published by The Travelers Insurance Company, Hartford, Connecticut. (Google Books Full View) link

A saying was current in Lincoln’s Inn years ago of a judge who recognized three degrees in liars: the liar simple, the d—d liar, and the expert witness. The point lies in the fact that expert witnesses are allowed to give evidence as to what is their opinion, and hence are out of the reach of an indictment for perjury, which always hangs over the head of the ordinary witness, who can testify to facts only.

On June 28, 1892 British politician Arthur Balfour used an instance during a speech in Manchester, England. The following day “The Leeds Mercury” reported on his remark:^[24] 1892 June 29, The Leeds Mercury, Politics and Society, Quote Page 5, Column 2, West Yorkshire, England. (The British Newspaper Archive)

Mr. Arthur Balfour is reverting to his old habits of wild and reckless assertions. Last night he made what his friends would doubtless call a stinging speech to his constituents at Manchester. He began by a contemptuous reference to his opponent, Professor Munro; and in dealing with the statistics of the latter had the good taste to say that there were three kinds of unveracity–namely, lies, damned lies, and statistics.

In July 1892 “The Pall Mall Gazette” of London credited an instance to Arthur James Balfour:^[25] 1892 July 6, The Pall Mall Gazette, How Large Will It Be, Quote Page 1, Column 2, London, England. (British Newspaper Archive)

What is the outcome of yesterday’s results? One thinks at once of Mr. Balfour’s categories of untruths, “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” when one reads the amusing contradictions and audacious misrepresentations in the Unionist papers.

In 1893 an article by Perry H. Millard M.D. in “Annals of Surgery” in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania aimed a barb at medical experts:^[26]1893 July to December, Annals of Surgery, Volume 18, Some Critical Observations Upon Certain Forms of Spinal Injury by Perry H. Millard M.D. (Professor of the Principles of Surgery and Medical … Continue reading

We are not disposed to criticise Judge Storey too sharply in dividing unreliable witnesses into three classes, as follows: “Liars, blanked liars, and medical experts.”

In July 1895 “The Standard” of London printed a letter from W. P. Treloar who attributed an instance to Lord Beaconsfield, i.e., Benjamin Disraeli.^[27] 1895 July 27, The Standard, Sunday Opening in the City (Letter to the Editor of The Standard from W. P. Treloar), Quote Page 2, Column 6, London, England. (Gale 19th Century British Newspapers) The same letter also appeared in “The Times” of London:^[28]1895 July 27, The Times, Sunday Opening In The City, (Letter to the Editor of The Times from W. P. Treloar), Quote Page 10, Column 3, London, England. (The Times Digital Archive from Gale Cengage … Continue reading

Mr. Peake says that the figures quoted by me disguise plain facts. I think Lord Beaconsfield said that there were three degrees of veracity—viz., lies d—d lies, and statistics.

In August 1895 “The Sun” of New York City also attributed the expression to Benjamin Disraeli:^[29] 1895 August 5, The Sun, Give’em Ten-Acre Farms, Quote Page 5, Column 1, New York, New York. (Fulton History)

The Earl of Beaconsfield used to say that there were three grades of veracity, lies, damned lies, and statistics.

In 1907 Mark Twain (Samuel Clemens) published an installment of his autobiography in “The North American Review”, and he attributed the saying to Disraeli:^[30]1907 July 5, The North American Review, Volume 186, Number 618, Chapters From My Autobiography — XX by Mark Twain, Start Page 465, Quote Page 470 and 471, The North American Review Publishing … Continue reading

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

In conclusion, the target quotation is a member of a large and evolving collection of sayings with incremental changes occurring over decades. The quotation cannot be credited to single creator. Eliza Gutch and Mark Twain did employ versions of this saying, but both disclaimed credit. Charles Dilke and Arthur Balfour used instances, but only after closely matching statements were in circulation. Tracing this collection of remarks is a complex task, and future researchers will probably uncover illuminating citations.

Image Notes: Illustration depicting statistical information from geralt at Pixabay. Image has been resized and cropped.

(Great thanks to Simon Lancaster, Tom Darais, Richard Vaughn, Sharon Ishika Ghose, Stuart Firestein, Jeff Braemer, Edward Banatt, and Michael Vinegrad whose inquiries and remarks led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. As mentioned previously QI owes a debt of gratitude to researchers Stephen Goranson and Peter M. Lee who located many of the citations mentioned above. Thanks to Laurence Horn who told QI about the connection to Thomas Aquinas. Thanks to Nigel Rees whose 2013 newsletter mentioned the 1895 attribution to Disraeli. Additional thanks to Jesse Sheidlower and Grant Barrett who accessed and verified the 1891 citation in “The National Observer”. Also, thanks to Grant Barrett who verified the 1891 citation in “The Preston Herald”.)

Update History: On June 23, 2022 the citation dated November 7, 1891 was added to the article.