Vernor Vinge? Hans Moravec? Irving John Good? Apocryphal?
Question for Quote Investigator: The creation of entities with superhuman intelligence would mark a new epoch in human history. Systems which outperform humans in tasks such determining 3D protein structures or playing the boardgame Go already exist. But these AI systems display narrow expertise.
The advent of systems with general superhuman capabilities would be earthshattering. Technological growth might accelerate beyond human conception. This transition period has been called the singularity. While contemplating this topic a professor wrote:
Falling into the singularity is admittedly a frightening thing, but now we might regard ourselves as caterpillars who will soon be butterflies.
The professor also wrote:
We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth.
These statements have been attributed to the computer scientist and science fiction author Vernor Vinge. Would you please help me to find citations?
Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1983 Vernor Vinge wrote an opinion piece for “Omni” magazine which included the following passage. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
The evolution of human intelligence took millions of years. We will devise an equivalent advance in a fraction of that time. We will soon create intelligences greater than our own.
When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding.
The final paragraph of Vinge’s 1983 article stated the following:
Falling into the singularity is admittedly a frightening thing, but now we might regard ourselves as caterpillars who will soon be butterflies and, when we look to the stars, take that vast silence as evidence of other races already transformed.
In March 1993 a symposium called “VISION-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace” took place in Westlake, Ohio. Vernor Vinge delivered a paper titled “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era”. Vinge presented a sobering prediction about technological advancement:2
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
The year 2023 occurred thirty years after Vinge’s article appeared. Vinge also discussed the monumental changes he believed would soon engulf humanity:
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
In 1965 the mathematician Irving John Good published an article titled “Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine” which included thematically related observations about superhuman intelligence:3
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind …
QI has created a separate article discussing the quotation above which is located here.
In 1984 roboticist by Hans Moravec published an article titled “Locomotion, Vision, and Intelligence”, and he made a similar point about the importance of superhuman intelligence:4
Machines as intelligent as humans will, in their generality, be capable of superhuman feats and will be able to do the science and engineering to build yet more powerful successors. I leave (almost certainly futile) speculation about the future evolution of this process for a future essay. It is clear to me we are on the threshold of a change in the universe comparable to the transition from nonlife to life.
QI has created a separate article about the quotation crafted by Hans Moravec which is located here.
The Winter 1993 issue of “Whole Earth Review” published an article by Vernor Vinge titled “Technological Singularity” which contained the following passage:5
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence.
In conclusion, Vernor Vinge crafted a quotation which presented a hopeful viewpoint about cataclysmic changes which he believed were going to occur within a few decades. Vinge wrote about the singularity on several occasions, e.g., in an “Omni” magazine article in 1983 and in a “VISION-21” symposium article in 1993.
Image Notes: Picture of a butterfly near a purple-petaled flower from Gary Bendig at Unsplash. The image has been cropped and resized.
Acknowledgement: Great thanks to the anonymous person whose inquiry led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration.
- 1983 January, Omni, Volume 5, Number 4, First Word by Vernor Vinge, Quote Page 10, Omni Publications International, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1993, VISION-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace, Symposium held March 30-31, 1993, The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era by Vernor Vinge (Department of Mathematical Sciences, San Diego State University), Start Page 11, Quote Page 11 and 12, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Office of Management, NASA Conference Publication 10129. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1965, Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine by Irving John Good (Trinity College Oxford), Start Page 31, Quote Page 33, Academic Press Inc., New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1984 Copyright, Robotics Research: The First International Symposium, Edited by Michael Brady and Richard Paul, Locomotion, Vision, and Intelligence by Hans P. Moravec, Start Page 215, Quote Page 223, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1993 Winter, Whole Earth Review, Technological Singularity by Vernor Vinge, Start Page 88, Quote Page 89, Column 1, Point Foundation, Sausalito, California. (Verified with scans) ↩︎