Tag: Vernor Vinge

The First Ultraintelligent Machine Is the Last Invention That Humanity Need Ever Make

Irving John Good? Arthur C. Clarke? Philip J. Davis? Reuben Hersh? Vernor Vinge? Raymond Kurzweil? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: A prominent computer researcher in the 1950s or 1960s predicted that humanity would create a superintelligent machine sometime during the twentieth century. The researcher believed that this machine would be humanity’s last invention. Would you please tell me the name of this person and help me to find a citation?

Quote Investigator: In 1965 mathematician, cryptographer, and computer researcher Irving John Good published a speculative article titled “Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine” in the journal “Advances in Computers”. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[1]1965, Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine by Irving John Good (Trinity College Oxford), Start Page 31, Quote Page 33, Academic Press Inc., New … Continue reading

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind.

Based on this extrapolation of ascending computer capabilities Good presented the following conclusion with an ominous proviso:

Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading The First Ultraintelligent Machine Is the Last Invention That Humanity Need Ever Make

References

References
↑1 1965, Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine by Irving John Good (Trinity College Oxford), Start Page 31, Quote Page 33, Academic Press Inc., New York. (Verified with scans)

Within Thirty Years, We Will Have the Technological Means To Create Superhuman Intelligence. Shortly After, the Human Era Will Be Ended

Quotation: Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

Creator: Vernor Vinge, prize-winning science fiction author; retired professor of computer science at San Diego State University

Context: In 1993 NASA sponsored a symposium titled “Vision 21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace”. Vernor Vinge introduced the term “technological singularity” and predicted a cataclysmic change in human society resulting from the construction of superintelligent agents by 2023:[1]1993, Proceedings of Symposium Vision 21, Held in Westlake, Ohio on March 30-31, 1993, Cosponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, NASA Conference Publication … Continue reading

Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.

Vinge outlined four pathways that lead toward surpassing human intelligence:

  • The development of computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is “yes, we can”, then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.
  • Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
  • Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
  • Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.

Related Article: If We’re Lucky, Robots Might Decide To Keep Us as Pets

References

References
↑1 1993, Proceedings of Symposium Vision 21, Held in Westlake, Ohio on March 30-31, 1993, Cosponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, NASA Conference Publication 10129, Article: The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era by Vernor Vinge (San Diego State University), Section: Abstract, Quote Page 11, Published by NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Office of Management, Scientific and Technical Information Program. (Accessed May 7 2018 via archive at ntrs.nasa.gov)