Winston Churchill? Otto von Bismarck? Charles de Talleyrand? Klemens von Metternich? Jozef Pilsudski? Willson Woodside? Seweryn Bialer? Paul Johnson? Thomas L. Friedman? John Lukacs? Anonymous?
Question for Quote Investigator: The Russian government’s actions have repeatedly had far‑reaching effects on the rest of the world. Yet, predicting Russia’s future behavior has always been difficult. Here is a saying which highlights this uncertainty:
Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks.
This notion has been attributed to German statesman Klemens von Metternich, French diplomat Charles de Talleyrand, German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, British statesman Winston Churchill, and others. I am skeptical of all these ascriptions because I have never seen a solid citation. Would you please explore this topic?
Reply from Quote Investigator: This is a difficult statement to trace because it can be expressed in many ways. Here is an overview with dates and attributions:
1946 Jun: Always remember that Russia is never as strong, or as weak, as she appears. (Attributed to unnamed European statesman by Willson Woodside)
1949 Oct: Russia is never as strong and never as weak as she seems. (Attributed to Józef Piłsudski in the “Galway Observer” newspaper of Ireland)
1981 Summer: Russia is never as strong as she looks, Russia is never as weak as she looks. (Attributed to unnamed European statesman by Seweryn Bialer)
1983: Russia is never as strong as she looks. Russia is never as weak as she looks. (Called a wise diplomatic saying by Paul Johnson)
1985 Feb: Russia is never as strong — and never as weak — as she looks. (Attributed to French ambassador to imperial St Petersburg by Graham Barrett)
1991 Sep: Russia is never as strong or as weak as it appears. (Attributed to Otto von Bismarck by Thomas L. Friedman)
1992 Feb: Russia is never as strong, or as weak, as it might seem. (Attributed to Otto von Bismarck by John Lukacs)
1994 Feb: Russia is never as strong as it seems, but it also is never as weak as it seems. (Attributed to Charles de Talleyrand by Bernard D. Kaplan)
1996 Mar: Russia is never as strong as it looks. Russia is never as weak as it looks. (Attributed to Charles de Talleyrand by Paul Johnson)
1999 May: While Russia is never as strong as it looks, it is never as weak as it looks either. (Attributed to Klemens von Metternich by Paul Johnson)
2001 Jul: Russia is never as strong as it seems nor as weak as it seems. (Attributed to Winston Churchill in the “Tulsa World” newspaper of Oklahoma)
The ascriptions to famous historical figures started to appear in the 1990s. The length of this delay indicated that this evidence was very weak. QI has not yet found substantive evidence supporting the attributions to Otto von Bismarck, Charles de Talleyrand, Klemens von Metternich, or Winston Churchill.
On the other hand, QI has focused research on English instances of the expression; hence, it is conceivable that earlier examples appeared in German, French, Polish, or another language. Future researchers may uncover helpful citations.
Below are details for selected citations in chronological order.
In 1880 a remark using a similar template occurred in a Lichfield, England newspaper. The statement was applied to religious non-conformists in England. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
The Nonconformists of the country were, he said, never so strong and never so weak as now. Their strength was in their political influence, their weakness in their religious decay.
In 1946 “Saturday Night: The Canadian Illustrated Weekly” printed a column by journalist Willson Woodside who later because a professor of political science at the University of Guelph. Woodside attributed the remark to an unnamed European statesman:2
One of the best-known and best-liked European statesmen reminded me in a forceful phrase two years ago to “always remember that Russia is never as strong, or as weak, as she appears.” There is a danger, I know, in dwelling on Russian weaknesses.
In 1947 Willson Woodside used the expression again in a piece published in “Saturday Night”. This time he called the statement an “old saying”:3
… some delegates may judge Russia to be, not as strong as she would like to have us believe, but weaker than she really is. An old saying has it: “Russia is never as weak, or as strong, as she appears.”
In 1948 Willson Woodside used the expression a third time in the pages of “Saturday Night”:4
Here I recall the maxim quoted to me in 1944 by a statesman now living within the Soviet sphere: “Always remember, Russia is never as strong, or as weak, as she looks.”
In 1949 the “Galway Observer” of Galway, Ireland attributed the saying to Józef Piłsudski, the first Marshal of Poland who had died in 1935:5
It was Marshal Pilsudski who said that “Russia is never as strong and never as weak as she seems.” Because she has the atomic bomb, we have to assume that she is not as she seemed a few years ago.
In 1981 the journal “Foreign Affairs” published “The Harsh Decade: Soviet Policies in the 1980s” by Seweryn Bialer, a Professor of Political Science at Columbia University. Bialer attributed the saying to an unnamed European statesman:6
The new situation illustrated the adage coined by a European statesman in the interwar period: “Russia is never as strong as she looks, Russia is never as weak as she looks.” Today, Soviet developments are riddled with paradox. The Soviet Union exhibits both strengths and weaknesses, assets and liabilities …
In 1983 British journalist Paul Johnson published “A History of the Modern World: From 1917 to the 1980s”. Johnson stated that Adolf Hitler incorrectly assessed the military resilience of Russia when he launched his invasion during WWII:7
The truth is, he grievously underestimated Russian military capacity. There is an old and wise diplomatic saying: ‘Russia is never as strong as she looks. Russia is never as weak as she looks.’ Hitler ignored it. He was not alone in his contempt for the Red Army. As noted, the British and French general staffs rated its performance below Poland’s.
In September 1983 Seweryn Bialer wrote an opinion piece which appeared in Scripps-Howard newspapers. Bialer suggested that the saying was circulating in the 1930s although he did not give a precise attribution or citation:8
As a European statesman in the 1930s once said. “Russia is never as strong as she looks. Russia is never as weak as she looks.” The same is true today.
In 1985 “The Age” newspaper of Melbourne, Australia printed a piece Graham Barrett which contained the following:9
As a French ambassador to imperial St Petersburg once said, “Russia is never as strong — and never as weak — as she looks.”
In 1991 columnist Thomas L. Friedman of “The New York Times” attributed the saying to Otto von Bismarck who had died in 1898:10
Bismarck once observed that Russia is never as strong or as weak as it appears. For Washington, however, dealing with that problem should be at least a few years down the road.
In February 1992 “American Heritage” magazine published an article by John Lukacs, Professor of History at Chestnut Hill College, Philadelphia. Lukacs attributed the saying to Bismarck:11
They ought to keep in mind also what Bismarck was reputed to have said on one occasion: that Russia is never as strong, or as weak, as it might seem.
In Fall 1992 John Lukacs published a piece in “Foreign Affairs” which also credited Bismarck:12
Yet there is reason to believe that they know something akin to what Bismarck had once put into words: that Russia is never as strong—or as weak—as it seems.
In 1994 Bernard D. Kaplan published an opinion piece in the Hearst Newspapers which attributed the saying to Charles de Talleyrand who had died in 1838:13
“Russia is never as strong as it seems,” the famed 19th century French statesman Charles de Talleyrand once observed. “But it also is never as weak as it seems.”
In 1996 Paul Johnson published an article in “The Spectator” of London which attributed the saying to Charles de Talleyrand:14
One should never forget Talleyrand’s adage: ‘Russia is never as strong as it looks. Russia is never as weak as it looks.’ Weak or strong, the bear is always a dangerous animal.
In 1999 Paul Johnson authored another article in “The Spectator”, but he switched the attribution to Klemens von Metternich who had died in 1859:15
I respect Metternich’s old maxim that, while Russia is never as strong as it looks, it is never as weak as it looks either.
In March 2001 “The Independent” newspaper of London printed the following:16
Nevertheless, it is worth remembering Bismarck’s old adage, recently cited by Mikhail Gorbachev, that “Russia is never as strong or as weak as it looks”.
In July 2001 an editorial in the “Tulsa World” newspaper of Oklahoma attributed the saying to Winston Churchill who had died in 1965:17
Winston Churchill once said that Russia is never as strong as it seems nor as weak as it seems. That’s a nugget of wisdom that U.S. leaders would be wise to heed.
In 2006 UPI International Intelligence published an article by Mark N. Katz who was a Professor of Government and Politics at George Mason University. Katz expressed uncertainty about the provenance of the saying:18
Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks. This quotation, or ones similar to it, have been attributed to Talleyrand, Metternich, and Churchill. In May 2002, Putin pronounced a modified version of it (which he attributed to Churchill): Russia was never so strong as it wants to be and never so weak as it is thought to be.
In 2008, Richard M. Langworth, who is an expert on Winston Churchill quotations published “Churchill By Himself: The Definitive Collection of Quotations”. The quotation did not appear in the book.19
In conclusion, the earliest instances of this saying found by QI appeared in articles by Canadian journalist Willson Woodside from 1946, 1947, and 1948. Woodside stated that he heard the saying from an unnamed European statesman in 1944. Woodside called the saying a maxim which indicated that it was already circulating.
The first Marshal of Poland Józef Piłsudski who died in 1935 received credit for the saying in 1949 by an Irish news correspondent, but no citation was given. Currently, there is no solid support for attributions to famous historical figures such as Otto von Bismarck, Charles de Talleyrand, Klemens von Metternich, and Winston Churchill.
Image Notes: Picture of Moscow at night from Serge Kutuzov at Unsplash. The image has been cropped and resized.
Acknowledgement: Great thanks to Jonas Vils whose inquiry led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration.
- 1880 March 5, The Lichfield Mercury, The Bishop of Lichfield’s Primary Charge, Quote Page 3, Column 3, Lichfield, Staffordshire, England. (British Newspaper Archive) ↩︎
- 1946 June 1, Saturday Night: The Canadian Illustrated Weekly, Volume 61, Number 39, Strike Situation Not Revolutionary; Hopeful Factors in World Plight by Willson Woodside, Start Page 14, Quote Page 15, Column 2, Toronto, Canada. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1947 April 19, Saturday Night: The Canadian Illustrated Weekly, Volume 62, Number 33, U.S. Policy on a World Front From Lake Success to Moscow by Willson Woodside, Start Page 14, Quote Page 15, Column 4, Toronto, Canada. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1948 February 14, Saturday Night: The Canadian Illustrated Weekly, Volume 63, Number 19, Soviets Count on U.S. Collapse How About Own Economy? by Willson Woodside, Start Page 12, Quote Page 12, Column 2, Toronto, Canada. (ProQuest) ↩︎
- 1949 October 15, Galway Observer, Russia’s Atom Bomb by Our Special European Correspondent, Quote Page 4, Column 6, Galway, Republic of Ireland. (British Newspaper Archive) ↩︎
- 1981 Summer, Foreign Affairs, The Harsh Decade: Soviet Policies in the 1980s by Seweryn Bialer, Start Page 999, Quote Page 1000, Council on Foreign Relations Inc., New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1983 Copyright, A History of the Modern World: From 1917 to the 1980s by Paul Johnson, Chapter 11: The Watershed Year, Quote Page 376, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1983 September 8, The Republic, Can’t Judge Soviets by Their Cover by Seweryn Bialer, Quote Page 4, Column 4, Columbus, Indiana. (Newspapers_com) link ↩︎
- 1985 February 23, The Age, Yalta viewed 40 years later by Graham Barrett, Quote Page 13, Column 7, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. (Newspapers_com) link ↩︎
- 1991 September 8, The New York Times, The World: Will the U.S. Miss Its Partner, The Kremlin? by Thomas L. Friedman, Quote Page E2, Column 6, New York. (ProQuest) ↩︎
- 1992 February-March, American Heritage, America and Russia, Americans and Russians by John Lukacs, Start Page 64, Quote Page 71, Column 2, American Heritage: A Division of Forbes Inc., New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1992 Fall, Foreign Affairs, Finland Vindicated by John Lukacs, Start Page 50, Quote Page 63, Council on Foreign Relations Inc., New York. (ProQuest) ↩︎
- 1994 February 24, Wisconsin State Journal, The Russians are coming — again by Bernard D. Kaplan (Hearst Newspapers), Quote Page 8A, Column 1, Madison, Wisconsin. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1996 March 23, The Spectator, Volume 276, Number 8749, And Another Thing: As world storm-clouds gather, time to light a candle in Britain by Paul Johnson, Quote Page 24, Column 1, London, England. (ProQuest) ↩︎
- 1999 May 22, The Spectator, Thank God for a young Churchill in another age of Munich by Paul Johnson, Quote Page 24, London, England. (ProQuest) ↩︎
- 2001 March 30, The Independent, Putin’s star undimmed by disaster of economy by Patrick Cockburn in Moscow, Quote Page 14, Column 8, London, England. (Newspapers_com) link ↩︎
- 2001 July 24, Tulsa World, Editorial: Help Russia, Quote Page A12, Column 1, Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Newspapers_com) link ↩︎
- 2006 July 10, UPI International Intelligence, Policy Watch: Is Russia strong or weak? by Mark N. Katz, United Press International, Inc., Boca Raton, Florida. (NewsBank Access World News) ↩︎
- 2008, Churchill By Himself: The Definitive Collection of Quotations by Winston S. Churchill, Compiled and Edited by Richard M. Langworth, Phrase: “never as strong” is absent, Phrase: “never as weak” is absent, PublicAffairs, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎