Michael Caine? Raymond Clapper? Stephen Tallents? Bing Crosby? Japanese Saying? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: The following memorable advice uses a vivid simile:
Behave like a duck—keep calm and serene on the surface but paddle like crazy underneath.
British actor Michael Caine has received credit for this saying. Would you please explore the provenance of this clever figurative language?
Reply from Quote Investigator: This engaging simile is difficult to trace because it can be expressed in many ways. Michael Caine has used it, but he did not create it. The earliest match located by QI appeared in November 1934 within an article by widely distributed U.S. columnist Raymond Clapper. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
Some New Dealers suspect that the captains of industry who are now singing belated hallelujahs to Mr. Roosevelt are practicing what the Japanese call “duck diplomacy.”
Duck diplomacy in Japan means that you float along placidly on the surface, but underneath you are paddling like the dickens with your feet.
Based on current evidence the simile originated in Japan, and the creator remains anonymous. A variant expression refers to a swan instead of a duck. Here is an overview with dates:
1934 Nov: Diplomacy in Japan – duck – float along placidly on the surface, but underneath you are paddling like the dickens with your feet
1935 Oct: Politicians – duck – appear to be sitting calmly on the water, inactive, but underneath they are paddling like the dickens
1938 May: International policy of Japan – duck – unruffled above water, but paddling like the devil below it
1939 Jun: Japanese politicians – duck – calm on the surface, but paddling like the deuce below
1955 Jun: Bing Crosby – duck – keep calm and unruffled on the surface but paddle like the devil underneath
1956 Feb: Harrods department store – duck – gliding over the surface with dignity and calm, but paddling like hell underneath
1973 Oct: School board – swan – unruffled, complacent on the surface, but paddling like the very dickens underneath
1976 May: Michael Caine on acting – duck – calm on the surface, but paddling like hell underneath
1983 Apr: Royal servant – swan – gliding on the lake . . . underneath, they’re paddling like crazy
Detailed citations are presented below.
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