Mao Zedong? Zhou Enlai? Eduard Shevardnadze? Andre Malraux? Anonymous Official? Apocryphal?
Question for Quote Investigator: A popular anecdote claims that a high-level U.S. politician once met with a Chinese official during the 1970s, and they began to talk about the French Revolution. When the Chinese official was asked about the impact of this momentous historical event he replied: “It’s too soon to say”.
This response has been attributed to two important Chinese leaders: Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. I am skeptical because I have not found any solid citations. Would you please explore this topic?
Reply from Quote Investigator: This anecdote is difficult to trace because the details of the story vary. This article presents a snapshot of current research.
A fascinating precursor appeared in a lecture delivered in 1939 by New Zealand journalist Guy Hardy Scholefield. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
To understand what is happening in the world to-day we must look back at least as far as the revolt of the North American colonies. A Chinese philosopher protested with genuine surprise that it is still too early to know what was the effect of the French Revolution.
This citation shows that the notably equivocal response was being attributed to an anonymous Chinese philosopher by 1939. QI does not know whether the similarity with the 1970s anecdote was coincidental or not.
The earliest close match for the 1970s anecdote located by QI appeared in a 1978 speech by British politician and historian Alun Gwynne Jones delivered in the House of Lords as recorded in the Hansard:2
. . . a story which Dr. Henry Kissinger tells of an experience which he had in Paris at the time of the negotiations about the Vietnam war. One evening after a long and hard day’s negotiating, he and the other diplomats and politicians were sitting around in the home of their French host.
They were discussing the events of the day when the French ambassador, the host, wishing to lift the level of conversation somewhat, asked whether they could have a short conversation about what had been the effect of the French Revolution on the political development of the world.
He turned first to Henry Kissinger and said: “Secretary of State, could you say a word about the effects of the French Revolution on the political development of the United States?” Henry Kissinger, being an expert in this kind of thing, delivered a beautifully rounded lecture mentioning such names as de Tocqueville and Lafayette and reviewing all the political developments in the United States.
It was an enormous success; indeed, so much so that the French ambassador, much emboldened, turned to the Chinese representative, a very wise and ancient gentleman, sitting next to Henry Kissinger. He said: “Tell me your Excellency, what has been the effect of the French Revolution on the development of your country?” After a brief pause the Chinese gentleman said: “It is too early yet to say.”
I think that that example makes a real point, which is that the Chinese feel themselves to be part of a great historical development.
In 2011 an illuminating citation about this anecdote appeared in the “Financial Times” of London. The article by journalist Richard McGregor stated that the quotation was spoken by the Premiere of China Zhou Enlai. The question about the French Revolution was misinterpreted. Zhou Enlai thought the referent was the recent 1968 student riots in Paris and not the 1789 storming of the Bastille. Hence, Zhou Enlai answered, “Too early to say”.
This claim was based on comments from U.S. diplomat and interpreter Chas Freeman who was present during the exchange:3
. . . Chas Freeman, a retired foreign service officer, sought to correct the long-standing error.
“I distinctly remember the exchange. There was a mis-understanding that was too delicious to invite correction,” said Mr Freeman.
He said Mr Zhou had been confused when asked about the French Revolution and the Paris Commune. “But these were exactly the kinds of terms used by the students to describe what they were up to in 1968 and that is how Zhou understood them.”
The article also presented the viewpoint of sinologist Geremie Barme of the Australian National University:
Dr Barme added that Chinese researchers with access to the foreign ministry archives in Beijing said the records made clear that Mr Zhou was referring to the 1968 riots in Paris. The Chinese archives also record Mr Zhou’s conversation as being with Henry Kissinger.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
In 1979 “The Kansas City Star” of Missouri printed a version of the anecdote which was relayed by Ivor Richard, the British ambassador to the United Nations:4
During the Vietnam peace negotiations, Henry Kissinger and an unnamed China representative found themselves together at a dinner. The host, possibly trying to lighten things up a bit, asked each to assess the impact of the French Revolution on their respective countries.
Kissinger, the verbose academic that he was, spent a half-hour tracing the French influence from the earliest days of the American Revolution through the Industrial Revolution into modern times. When it came time for the Chinese representative to answer, he paused just a second before saying: “It’s too early to tell.”
In 1981 “Newsday” of New York printed the following:5
In terms of policy, we can only repeat what a modern Chinese scholar said when asked about the impact of the French Revolution of almost two centuries ago: “It’s too early to tell.”
In 1984 “The Guardian” of London printed a piece by Martin Walker which contained the following passage crediting Mao instead of Zhou Enlai:6
. . . the answer Chairman Mao is said to have given when asked about the consequences of the French Revolution: “It is too soon to tell.”
In 1984 Indian diplomat by K. Natwar Singh published a collection of essays which included a piece titled “Of Diplomacy and Diplomats”. Singh presented a different version of the anecdote:7
When André Malraux met Chairman Mao Tse-Tung, he asked him, “Tell me, Mr Chairman, what has been the effect of the French Revolution on China?” There was a pause. Then Mao looked Malraux straight in the face and replied, “It is too early to say.”
In 1988 Roger Rapoport published a book review in an Oakland, California newspaper. Rapoport credited Mao:8
While this fascinating book offers a panoramic look at modern China, Theroux is careful not to jump to conclusions. He reserves judgment in much the same way Chairman Mao did when asked his opinion of the French Revolution. “It’s too early to say.”
In May 1989 widely syndicated political columnist George Will wrote the following:9
. . . a 20th century Chinese thinker said when asked the significance of the French Revolution, “Too soon to tell.”
In June 1989 an article in “The Independent” of London credited Zhou Enlai:10
Asked once what he thought the effects of the French Revolution had been, Chou en-Lai replied presciently that it “was too early to say”.
In July 1989 an article in the “Chicago Sun-Times” of Illinois credited Soviet politician Eduard Shevardnadze:11
Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze recently was asked whether he thought the French Revolution had been a good thing. “It’s too early to tell,” he replied.
In 1990 a journalist in the “Financial Times’ of London credited Mao:12
As Mao-Tse Tung said of the results of the French revolution, it’s too early to tell.
In 1993 the “Evening Standard” of London tentatively credited Zhou Enlai:13
When asked what he considered the more important implications of the French Revolution were, Zhou Enlai is alleged to have replied that it was “too early to tell yet”.
In 2011 the “Financial Times” printed a valuable article which contained the testimony of the interpreter Chas Freeman who attended the key meeting as discussed near the beginning of this article.
In conclusion, based on current evidence QI believes that Henry Kissinger and Zhou Enlai were present during the 1970s anecdote. The question about the French Revolution was posed to Zhou Enlai. However, he believed that the inquiry was about the 1968 student riots in Paris and not about the 18th century French Revolution. So Zhou Enlai answered, “It’s Too Early To Tell.” QI believes it is unlikely that Mao Zedong delivered this memorable line.
Image Notes: Painting depicting the Storming of the Tuileries in 1792 during the French Revolution by Jacques Bertaux.
Acknowledgement: Great thanks to Jason Zweig of “The Wall Street Journal” whose inquiry led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Zweig accessed the important 2011 citation in the “Financial Times”. Thanks also to Nigel Rees who examined this topic in “The Cassell Dictionary of Anecdotes” (1999).
- 1939, Cawthron Lecture, Some Problems of the New World Order by G. H. Scholefield, Start Page 1, Quote Page 6, Cawthron Institute of Nelson, New Zealand, Printer R. W. Stiles & Company, Nelson, New Zealand. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- Hansard, UK Parliament, Lords Chamber, Volume 397, Date: December 6, 1978, Title: China: Relations With The United Kingdom, Speaker: Lord Chalfont (Alun Gwynne Jones). (Accessed hansard.parliament.uk on March 31, 2025) link ↩︎
- 2011 June 11, The Financial Times, What Zhou meant by ‘Too early to say’ by Richard McGregor, Quote Page 8, London, England. (Gale Academic OneFile) ↩︎
- 1979 March 18, The Kansas City Star, Many Ironies In Chinese ‘Great Leap’ (Continuation Title: Chinese Police-State Grip Is Easing) by Craig Ladwig (Member of Editorial Staff), Start Page 1J, Quote Page 2J, Column 6, Kansas City, Missouri. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1981 January 20, Newsday, View points: A Parade of Inaugurals Past by Malcolm Moos, Quote Page 41, Column 3, New York, New York. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1984 May 17, The Guardian, Tuchman’s folly by Martin Walker (Book Review of Barbara Tuchman’s “The March of Folly”), Quote Page 18, Column 6, London, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1984, Curtain Raisers: Essays, Reviews, Letters by K. Natwar Singh, Chapter 18: Of Diplomacy and Diplomats, Date: 1979, Quote Page 113, Vikas Publishing House, New Delhi, India. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1988 July 10, Sunday Tribune (Oakland Tribune), Riding rails in China by Roger Rapoport, Quote Page E1, Column 1, Oakland, California. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1989 May 24, The Asheville Citizen, U.S. Example Inspires But The Parallels Do Not Hold by George Will, Quote Page 4A, Column 6, Asheville, North Carolina. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1989 June 15, The Independent, Television: Desert in the revolt by Thomas Sutcliffe, Quote Page 16, Column 8, London, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1989 July 9, Chicago Sun-Times, Europe royalty to shun France’s Bastille bash by Jerome R. Watson, Section: Sunday News, Quote Page 24, Chicago, Illinois. (NewsBank Access World News) ↩︎
- 1990 October 12, The Financial Times, Survey of the North of England: A new landscape rises – results of regeneration in Teesside by Tracy Corrigan, Quote Page 33, London, England. (NewsBank Access World News) ↩︎
- 1993 December 2, Evening Standard, Crawling from the pit of revolution by J. G. Cluff (Book review of Richard Evans’s “Deng Xiaoping and the Making of Modern China”), Quote Page 45, Column 1, London, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎