Quote Investigator® – Tracing Quotations

Quote Origin: When You Have Eliminated the Impossible Whatever Remains, However Improbable, Must Be the Truth

Arthur Conan Doyle? Edgar Allan Poe? Dorothy L. Sayers? Apocryphal?

Picture of a magnifying glass on a wooden table from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: A famous fictional detective once explained the methodology for solving mysteries. The sleuth should gather facts and systematically eliminate hypotheses that are impossible. When a single hypothesis remains, however improbable, it must be the truth.

The description of this approach has been attributed to Arthur Conan Doyle’s detective Sherlock Holmes, Edgar Allan Poe’s ratiocinator C. Auguste Dupin, and Dorothy L. Sayers’s sleuth Lord Peter Wimsey.

I am confused because I have not seen a proper analysis with citations. Would you please help me to find the correct phrasing and the true originator?

Reply from Quote Investigator: This is a difficult task because many phrasings are possible. The earliest match known to QI appeared in the short story “The Fate of the Evangeline” by Arthur Conan Doyle which appeared in the periodical “The Boy’s Own Paper” of London in 1885. This tale did not include the character Sherlock Holmes. Interestingly, the saying was credited to C. Auguste Dupin who was the fictional mystery solver of U.S. short story master Edgar Allan Poe. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

“It would be well,” the “Scotsman” concluded, “if those who express opinions upon such subjects would bear in mind those simple rules as to the analysis of evidence laid down by Auguste Dupin. ‘Exclude the impossible,’ he remarks in one of Poe’s immortal stories, ‘and what is left, however improbable, must be the truth.’

Researchers have been unable to find this statement in the writings of Poe. Hence, the credit remains with Doyle himself although he may have been inspired to formulate the saying after reading Poe’s detective tales.

Doyle presented the expression multiple times in his works. Others noticed and highlighted the saying. Here is an overview with dates:

1885: Exclude the impossible and what is left, however improbable, must be the truth (The Fate of the Evangeline by A. Conan Doyle)

1890: When you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth (The Sign of the Four by A. Conan Doyle)

1890: Eliminate all other factors, and the one which remains must be the truth (The Sign of the Four by A. Conan Doyle)

1892: When you have excluded the impossible , whatever remains , however improbable, must be the truth (The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet by A. Conan Doyle)

1896: Eliminate the impossible, and what is left, however improbable, must be the truth (Attributed to Sherlock Holmes within Beyond the Verge by De Witt C. Chipman)

1908: When all other contingencies fail, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth (The Adventure of the Bruce-Partington Plans by A. Conan Doyle)

1930: When you have eliminated the impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be true (Attributed to Sherlock Holmes and Auguste Dupin within Strong Poison by Dorothy L. Sayers)

Below are the details for additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: I Have Lived a Thousand Lives. I Have Loved a Thousand Loves . . . Because I Read

George R. R. Martin? Gloria Swanson? C. S. Lewis? A. A. Pape? Vada B. Reese? Apocryphal?

Detail of painting titled “Romeo and Juliet” by Frank Dicksee circa 1884

Question for Quote Investigator: A best-selling author once stated:

I have lived a thousand lives. I have loved a thousand loves.

This extraordinary achievement had been accomplished vicariously via reading. Fantasy and science fiction author George R. R. Martin has received credit for this statement. Martin is best known for creating the worlds of “Game of Thrones” and “Wild Cards”. Would you please help me to find a citation?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 2013 Texas A&M University held a two-day gathering honoring George R. R. Martin who had previously donated his manuscripts, books, and collectibles to the school’s Cushing Library. The festivities included a screening of the first episode of the upcoming third season of “Game of Thrones”. Martin spoke to the audience about his life. Boldface added the excepts by QI:¹

The 64-year-old Martin described growing up poor but being able to go on fantastic adventures by reading science fiction and fantasy.

“That’s where I am today and why I’m here today, because of my love of books,” Martin said. “I was born in Bayonne, New Jersey. I grew up in the projects. I never went anywhere. But I have lived a thousand lives. I have loved a thousand loves. I’ve wandered distant worlds and seen the end of time because I read.”

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: You Have Not Lived Today Until You Have Done Something for Someone Who Can Never Repay You

John Bunyan? Paul Bunyan? Jacob Morton Braude? Frank Look? Eugene P. Bertin? Frank Ney? Titus? Anonymous?

**Picture of food bundles for charity from Unsplash**

Question for Quote Investigator: Altruism has been championed with the following saying:

You have not lived today until you have done something for someone who can never repay you.

This statement has been credited to the 17^th-century Puritan preacher John Bunyan who was best known for authoring the religious allegory “The Pilgrim’s Progress”. The statement has also been ascribed to the North American lumberjack folk hero Paul Bunyan. However, I am skeptical. I have never seen a solid citation. Also, the phrasing sounds too modern for John Bunyan. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: QI has found no substantive evidence supporting the attributions to John Bunyan or Paul Bunyan. QI conjectures that the incorrect linkage to John Bunyan occurred because individuals misread the text of a 1962 collection titled “Lifetime Speaker’s Encyclopedia” by Jacob Morton Braude.

Most of the quotations in the book were accompanied with attributions. But anonymous quotations specified no author. Here were four contiguous items. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

2483. You have not lived today until you have done something for someone who can never repay you.

2484. He who bestows his goods upon the poor, Shall have as much again; and ten times more. —John Bunyan

2485, Every man who will not have softening of the heart must at last have softening of the brain. —G. K. Chesterton

2486. Give freely to him that deserveth well, and asketh nothing; and that is a way of giving to thyself. —Thomas Fuller

Here is a scan showing part of a book page.

The first quotation was anonymous, and the second was credited to John Bunyan. Unfortunately, some readers incorrectly assigned both of these quotations to John Bunyan. This mistake corresponds to a known error mechanism in which an inattentive reader credits a statement to a well-known person whose name appears nearby.

The ascription to Paul Bunyan was probably caused by confusion between similar names.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: We Have Each Continued To Believe That the Other Will Do Better Tomorrow

Robert Mitchum? Gloria Pitzer? Lloyd Robson? Apocryphal?

Two golden rings symbolizing marriage from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: A movie star was once asked about the impressive longevity of his marriage, and he replied that the two partners displayed mutual forbearance. Each partner believed that the other would do better tomorrow.

This statement has been attributed to Golden-Age Hollywood actor Robert Mitchum, but I do not know the precise phrasing, and I have not seen a solid citation. Would you please help?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Robert Mitchum starred in many films including The Sundowners (1960), Cape Fear (1962), and Ryan’s Daughter (1970). In March 1971 “Reader’s Digest” magazine published the following item under the title “Marriage Counsel”. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Screen actor Robert Mitchum, asked what had made his marriage of 30 years last when so many had failed, replied, “Mutual forbearance. We have each continued to believe that the other will do better tomorrow.”
—“The David Frost Show,” Westinghouse Broadcasting Co.

QI has not seen the episode of “The David Frost Show” containing the quotation; hence, the accuracy of this information is dependent on the veracity of the item in the “Reader’s Digest”.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups

George Carlin? Elsie Robinson? Eddie Schwartz? Jan M. Carroll? Gordie Spear? Anonymous?

Group of silhouettes representing a crowd from Pixabay

Question for Quote Investigator: When foolish people group together the results are often terrible. Here are two versions of a cautionary adage:

(1) Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
(2) Never underestimate the power of stupid people in a large group.

This saying has been credited to U.S. comedian George Carlin, but I have not seen a solid citation, and I am skeptical of this attribution. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: There is no substantive evidence that George Carlin wrote or spoke this statement. Carlin received credit in 2000, but the saying entered circulation decades earlier.

QI believes that the statement evolved over time. In 1930 the widely syndicated columnist by Elsie Robinson published the following partially matching statement with flawed grammar. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Don’t underrate “single track minds.” Don’t underestimate the power of stupid, stubborn people with one idea can-and often does-put it all over a brilliant citizen with a million.

On April 28, 1959 a full match appeared in a column published in the “Minneapolis Morning Tribune” of Minnesota:²

Day Brightener: Eddie Schwartz is distributing cards bearing this motto: Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups.

The fact that the saying was on a card indicated that the originator was anonymous. Two days later the saying appeared in a column by Gordie Spear in a Miles City, Montana newspaper:³

In closing, let me remind you—Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: AI Researchers Are Trying To Reach the Moon by Climbing the Tallest Trees

Hubert Dreyfus? Stuart Dreyfus? Gary Marcus? Dave Akin? Ernest Davis? Aesop?

Picture of a full moon between tree branches from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have been remarkable, but detractors contend that current approaches are inadequate and progress will soon reach a plateau.

Critics of AI research have used the following vivid analogy: You cannot reach the moon by climbing a tall tree or a ladder. This type of criticism has been attributed to the philosopher Hubert Dreyfus and the cognitive scientist Gary Marcus, but I do not know the precise phrasing, and I do not have a citation. Would you please help?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1965 Hubert Dreyfus published a sharply critical report titled “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence” for the RAND Corporation, a prominent think tank. Dreyfus asserted that human-level intelligence required properties such as “fringe consciousness” and “ambiguity tolerance” which could not be implemented with digital computers.

Hence, Dreyfus insisted that AI researchers using digital computers would fail in their attempt to build systems displaying human-level intelligence. Dreyfus used two striking analogies to illustrate the pointlessness of these efforts. Boldface added to excepts by QI:¹

An alchemist would surely have considered it rather pessimistic and petty to insist that, since the creation of quicksilver, he had produced many beautifully colored solutions but not a speck of gold; he would probably have considered such a critic extremely unfair. Similarly, the person who is hypnotized by the moon and is inching up those last branches toward the top of the tree would consider it reactionary of someone to shake the tree and yell, “Come down!”

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Prediction About AI Systems: The Range of Problems They Can Handle Will Be Coextensive With the Range To Which the Human Mind Has Been Applied

Herbert A. Simon? Allen Newell? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: In the 1950s a pair of prominent researchers made several provocative predictions about artificial intelligence. The researchers believed that a computer program would become the world chess champion within a decade. They also believed that most psychological theories in the future would take the form of computer programs.

Today, achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the controversial goal of trillion dollar companies. The 1950s researchers envisioned AI systems whose ability to handle problems was “coextensive with the range to which the human mind has been applied”.

Would you please help me identify the researchers and determine the precise predictions?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Herbert A. Simon, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1978, delivered a speech in 1957 at a meeting of the Operations Research Society of America. Simon’s address was based on a paper that he co-authored with computer scientist Allen Newell and published in 1958. The paper included the following four predictions:¹

1. That within ten years a digital computer will be the world’s chess champion, unless the rules bar it from competition.

2. That within ten years a digital computer will discover and prove an important new mathematical theorem.

3. That within ten years a digital computer will write music that will be accepted by critics as possessing considerable aesthetic value.

4. That within ten years most theories in psychology will take the form of computer programs, or of qualitative statements about the characteristics of computer programs.

Simon and Newell also made a more general prediction in their 1958 article. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:

. . . there are now in the world machines that think, that learn, and that create. Moreover, their ability to do these things is going to increase rapidly until—in a visible future—the range of problems they can handle will be coextensive with the range to which the human mind has been applied.

Regarding the first prediction, a computer did not beat the world chess champion in 1958; however, in 1997 the Deep Blue chess computer did beat world chess champion Garry Kasparov in a six-game match.²

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: I Admire and Crave Competence In Any Field From Adultery to Zoology

H. L. Mencken? Alistair Cooke? Apocryphal?

**Picture of wood type used in letterpress printing from Unsplash**

Question for Quote Investigator: A prominent journalist once celebrated the display of competence in any discipline from A to Z by saying something like the following:

I admire and crave competence, just simple competence, in any field from adultery to zoology.

The statement has been attributed to the famous curmudgeon H. L. Mencken, but I have been unable to find a citation. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: H. L. Mencken did communicate this notion within the preface to his 1943 book titled “Heathen Days 1890-1936”. He used the distinctive phrase “from adultery to zoology”. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Indeed, I simply can’t imagine competence as anything save admirable, for it is very rare in this world, and especially in this great Republic, and those who have it in some measure, in any art or craft from adultery to zoology, are the only human beings I can think of who will be worth the oil it will take to fry them in Hell.

The concise version of this statement appeared in the 1999 citation presented further below. Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Behave Like a Duck, Stay Calm On the Surface But Paddle Like Crazy Underneath

Michael Caine? Raymond Clapper? Stephen Tallents? Bing Crosby? Japanese Saying? Anonymous?

Picture of a duck paddling from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: The following memorable advice uses a vivid simile:

Behave like a duck—keep calm and serene on the surface but paddle like crazy underneath.

British actor Michael Caine has received credit for this saying. Would you please explore the provenance of this clever figurative language?

Reply from Quote Investigator: This engaging simile is difficult to trace because it can be expressed in many ways. Michael Caine has used it, but he did not create it. The earliest match located by QI appeared in November 1934 within an article by widely distributed U.S. columnist Raymond Clapper. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Some New Dealers suspect that the captains of industry who are now singing belated hallelujahs to Mr. Roosevelt are practicing what the Japanese call “duck diplomacy.”

Duck diplomacy in Japan means that you float along placidly on the surface, but underneath you are paddling like the dickens with your feet.

Based on current evidence the simile originated in Japan, and the creator remains anonymous. A variant expression refers to a swan instead of a duck. Here is an overview with dates:

1934 Nov: Diplomacy in Japan – duck – float along placidly on the surface, but underneath you are paddling like the dickens with your feet

1935 Oct: Politicians – duck – appear to be sitting calmly on the water, inactive, but underneath they are paddling like the dickens

1938 May: International policy of Japan – duck – unruffled above water, but paddling like the devil below it

1939 Jun: Japanese politicians – duck – calm on the surface, but paddling like the deuce below

1955 Jun: Bing Crosby – duck – keep calm and unruffled on the surface but paddle like the devil underneath

1956 Feb: Harrods department store – duck – gliding over the surface with dignity and calm, but paddling like hell underneath

1973 Oct: School board – swan – unruffled, complacent on the surface, but paddling like the very dickens underneath

1976 May: Michael Caine on acting – duck – calm on the surface, but paddling like hell underneath

1983 Apr: Royal servant – swan – gliding on the lake . . . underneath, they’re paddling like crazy

Detailed citations are presented below.

Quote Origin: All Art Is Propaganda

Upton Sinclair? W. E. B. Du Bois? George Orwell? George Bernard Shaw? Ann Petry? Morris Edmund Speare? Richard Hunt? Ludwig Lewisohn? Edmund Wilson? Anonymous?

Illustration of two megaphones from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: Advocates often extoll their visions with strong-willed certainty. Insistent artists are accused of preaching and propagandizing. Yet, this criticism is sometimes provocatively embraced. Here are three assertions:

(1) All art is propaganda.
(2) All great art and literature is propaganda.
(3) All truly great art is propaganda.

This first adage has been attributed to muckraking U.S. activist Upton Sinclair, pioneering U.S. sociologist W. E. B. Du Bois, and influential English writer George Orwell. The second adage has been credited to Irish playwright George Bernard Shaw. The third adage has been ascribed to U.S. novelist Ann Petry. I am having trouble tracing the provenance of these sayings. Would you please help me to find solid citations?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Upton Sinclair, W. E. B. Du Bois, and George Orwell did employ the first saying. Also, George Bernard Shaw and Ann Petry did use the second and third sayings, respectively. Detailed citations for this group are given further below. However, the origin of this family of statements is older.

The earliest match found by QI appeared in “The National Magazine: An Illustrated American Monthly” of Boston, Massachusetts in 1916. The periodical printed a letter from Richard Hunt who was a poet and poetry magazine editor. Hunt favored poetry that was uplifting and highlighted beauty and happiness. In the following passage the phrase “an Eastman kodak” referred to a photograph. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

An Eastman kodak can show us the picture of a ragged child with starvation and joylessness on its face—and so can poetry. But poetry can do more; it can show the child’s soul as it leaps up laughing, free from the ugliness of poverty and the life that has no happiness. People have a right to be happy!

They have a right to everything which can make them happy. But how can they be happy till they see each other as poetry, instead of as an Eastman kodak sees them? Poetry, like all art, is propaganda; it keeps showing more and more people pictures of the part of them where their aspirations are.

I work with poetry because I feel that here is a thing which will eventually free me and all other people from the misery and oppression of ugliness.

Thus, Richard Hunt viewed poetry and all art as a vehicle for positive propaganda which would lead to the betterment of humankind.

A wide variety of people have used the saying under examination. Here is an overview with dates:

1916: Poet and editor Richard Hunt
1923: Professor of English Morris Edmund Speare
1924: Literary critic Ludwig Lewisohn
1925: Political activist Upton Sinclair
1926: Sociologist and activist W. E. B. Du Bois
1932: Poet and literary scholar William Ellery Leonard
1933: Playwright George Bernard Shaw (All great art and literature is propaganda)
1939: Novelist and essayist George Orwell
1950: Novelist and journalist Ann Petry (All truly great art is propaganda)

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.