Irving John Good? Arthur C. Clarke? Philip J. Davis? Reuben Hersh? Vernor Vinge? Raymond Kurzweil? Apocryphal?
Quote Investigator: In 1965 mathematician, cryptographer, and computer researcher Irving John Good published a speculative article titled “Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine” in the journal “Advances in Computers”. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[ref] 1965, Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine by Irving John Good (Trinity College Oxford), Start Page 31, Quote Page 33, Academic Press Inc., New York. (Verified with scans) [/ref]
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind.
Based on this extrapolation of ascending computer capabilities Good presented the following conclusion with an ominous proviso:
Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
I. J. Good advocated the construction of this powerful machine. His 1965 article began with the following assertion:[ref] 1965, Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine by Irving John Good (Trinity College Oxford), Start Page 31, Quote Page 31, Academic Press Inc., New York. (Verified with scans) [/ref]
The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultraintelligent machine.
Good believed that such a machine would “give the human race a good chance of surviving indefinitely” although he also admitted “the opposite possibility, that the human race will become redundant”. Good’s conclusion contained the following prediction which was not fulfilled in the 1900s:[ref] 1965, Advances in Computers, Volume 6, Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine by Irving John Good (Trinity College Oxford), Start Page 31, Quote Page 78, Academic Press Inc., New York. (Verified with scans) [/ref]
It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.” This will transform society in an unimaginable way.
In 1972 science fiction luminary by Arthur C. Clarke published the collection “Report on Planet Three and Other Speculations” which included a piece titled “The Mind of the Machine”. Clarke reacted to Good’s viewpoint:[ref] 1972, Report on Planet Three and Other Speculations by Arthur C. Clarke, Chapter 13: The Mind of the Machine, Start Page 125, Quote Page 129, Harper & Row, New York. (Verified with hardcopy) [/ref]
Dr. Good has written: “If we build an ultraintelligent machine, we will be playing with fire. We have played with fire before, and it helped to keep the other animals at bay.”
Well, yes—but when the ultraintelligent machine arrives, we may be the “other animals”: and look what has happened to them.
It is Dr. Good’s belief that the very survival of our civilization may depend upon the building of such instrumentalities, because if they are indeed more intelligent than we are, they can answer all our questions and solve all our problems. As he puts it in one elegiac phrase, “The first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need make.”
In 1986 mathematicians Philip J. Davis and Reuben Hersh published “Descartes’ Dream: The World According To Mathematics” which included the following:[ref] 1986, Descartes’ Dream: The World According To Mathematics by Philip J. Davis and Reuben Hersh, Part 5: Mathematics and Ethics, Chapter: The Computer Thinks: An Interpretation in the Medieval Mode, Quote Page 259, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, San Diego, California. (Verified with scans) [/ref]
The first ultra—intelligent machine, says Good, will be the last invention that man need ever make, for the machine will take over, providing us with the super—ultra intelligent machine. In this way, we will have set off an intelligence explosion whose consequences are indescribable.
In 1993 NASA sponsored a symposium titled “Vision 21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace”. Science fiction author and computer scientist Vernor Vinge introduced the term “technological singularity” and predicted a cataclysmic change in human society resulting from the construction of superintelligent agents. Vinge reprinted the passage from Good’s 1965 article that was quoted at the beginning of this article.[ref] 1993, Proceedings of Symposium Vision 21, Held in Westlake, Ohio on March 30-31, 1993, Cosponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, NASA Conference Publication 10129, Article: The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era by Vernor Vinge (San Diego State University), Section: Abstract, Quote Page 13, Published by NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Office of Management, Scientific and Technical Information Program. (Accessed May 7 2018 via archive at ntrs.nasa.gov) [/ref]
In 2005 Ray Kurzweil published “The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology”, and he also reprinted the passage from Good’s 1965 article.[ref] 2005, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil, Chapter 1: The Six Epochs, Quote Page 22, Viking: Penguin Group, New York. (Verified with hard copy) [/ref]
In conclusion, Irving John Good deserves credit for the remarks he made in the 1965 article “Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine”. His article was provocative and memorable; hence, other authors exploring the future of technology such as Arthur C. Clarke and Ray Kurzweil have reprinted excerpts.
Image Notes: Public domain image of two robots standing on a planet with a moon backdrop from kellepics at Pixabay.