John Maynard Keynes? Francis Bacon? Ian Dishart Suttie? Carveth Read? Curt John Ducasse? Gerald F. Shove? H. Wildon Carr?

Question for Quote Investigator: Two seemingly contradictory adages have become popular:
(1) It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong
(2) It is better to be definitely wrong than vaguely right
The justification for the first adage is: A vaguely right answer is valuable because it provides a starting point that can be refined and improved over time to obtain a more accurate answer. However, a exactly wrong answer provides no insight and is misleading.
The justification for the second adage is: A definitely wrong answer is valuable because it can be detected. This recognition of failure forces creative thought to formulate new ideas and construct new answers enabling progress. However, a vaguely right answer encourages the lazy acceptance and the persistence of faulty incoherent ideas.
The first adage has been attributed to English economist John Maynard Keynes, but I have never seen a solid citation. The second adage has been credited to Scottish psychiatrist Ian Dishart Suttie, but I am skeptical. Would you please explore the provenance of these two adages?
Reply from Quote Investigator: Tracing these dual notions is difficult because they can be expressed in numerous ways. Below is an overview depicting the evolution of these sayings with attributions and dates. The statement from Francis Bacon is a precursor for the second adage:
1620: Citius emergit Veritas ex errore quam ex confusion (Francis Bacon)
1620: Truth emerges more readily from error than confusion(Francis Bacon rendered into English)
1898: It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong (Carveth Read)
1903: To be only vaguely right is worse than being definitely wrong (Unknown person with initials A. J. O.)
1929: Greater service to the cause of philosophical truth is ever done by being definitely wrong than by being vaguely right (Curt John Ducasse)
1933: It is better to be definitely wrong than vaguely right (Ian D. Suttie)
1936: Mandeville, Malthus, Gesell and Hobson … preferred to see the truth obscurely and imperfectly rather than to maintain error, reached … on hypotheses inappropriate to the facts (John Maynard Keynes)
1942: It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong (Attributed to Wildon Carr by Gerald Shove)
1955: It was better to be roughly right than precisely wrong (K. Smith)
1960: I would prefer to be vaguely right than precisely wrong (Sydney J. Harris)
1966: It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong (Attributed to John Maynard Keynes in “The Accountants Digest”)
1969: It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong (Attributed to John Maynard Keynes by Howard Ross)
1978: It is far better to be clearly and definitely wrong than to be vaguely and indefinitely right (J. Lorne McDougall)
1979: It is better to be precisely wrong than roughly accurate (Edmond A. Murphy)
2009: It was better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong (Attributed to John Maynard Keynes by Anthony Hilton)
Here are details for selected citations in chronological order.
In 1620 English philosopher and statesman Francis Bacon published a manuscript in Latin titled “Novum Organum” which contained a precursor statement for the second adage. The Latin statement is followed below by a rendering into English. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
… citius emergit Veritas ex errore quam ex confusion …
… truth emerges more quickly from error than from confusion …
In 1895 “The Intellectual Rise in Electricity: A History” by Park Benjamin printed Bacon’s statement together with commentary:2
“Truth,” says Bacon, “emerges more readily from error than confusion.” Better a wrong hypothesis than none at all. But mistakes mislead, and erroneous theories obscure the vision for new discovery.
In 1898 British philosopher and logician Carveth Read published “Logic: Deductive and Inductive” which contained a version of the first adage:3
Much of the effect of poetry and eloquence depends upon the elasticity and indirect suggestiveness of common terms. Even in reasoning upon some subjects, it is a mistake to aim at an unattainable precision. It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong. In the criticism of manners, of fine art, or of literature, in politics, religion and moral philosophy, what we are anxious to say is often far from clear to ourselves; and it is better to indicate our meaning approximately, or as we feel about it, than to convey a false meaning …
In 1903 “The Theosophical Review” published an article by a person who was only identified by the initials A. J. O. The article contained a version of the second adage:4
The mind may easily be deceived with shadows, and to be only vaguely right is worse than being definitely wrong. Nothing manly can proceed from those who for Law and Light would substitute shapeless feelings, sentiments and impulses.
In 1929 Professor Curt John Ducasse published “The Philosophy of Art”. Ducasse presented a version of the second adage followed by Bacon’s statement in Latin:5
… greater service to the cause of philosophical truth is ever done by being definitely wrong than by being vaguely right, — citius emergit veritas ex errore, quam ex confusion.
In 1933 Scottish psychiatrist Ian Dishart Suttie published an article in “The Journal of Mental Science”. Suttie communicated a version of the second adage:6
In scientific work it is better to be definitely wrong than vaguely right, for then it is possible to test and correct our ideas. It is Freud’s great merit that he strives always to produce clear and articulated formulae which can be demonstrated to be right or wrong.
In 1936 John Maynard Keynes published his opus “The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money”. Keynes praised thinkers he deemed heretical because they were willing to “see the truth obscurely” instead of using flawed logic to yield generate errors. Keynes remark was similar to the first adage:7
… the brave army of heretics—with Mandeville, Malthus, Gesell and Hobson, who, following their intuitions, have preferred to see the truth obscurely and imperfectly rather than to maintain error, reached indeed with clearness and consistency and by easy logic, but on hypotheses inappropriate to the facts.
In 1942 economist Gerald F. Shove published a piece in “The Economic Journal”. Shove attributed the first adage to British philosopher H. Wildon Carr:8
… not all of us are content to act on the late Prof. Wildon Carr’s admirable motto (which might well have been Marshall’s), “It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong.”
In 1955 “The Chemist and Druggist” journal printed the viewpoint of Mr. K. Smith of Nottingham:9
When analysts worked with bioassayists he suggested that it was better that they should do a large series of approximate estimates. It was better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
In 1960 syndicated newspaper columnist Sydney J. Harris printed the following:10
I would prefer to be vaguely right than precisely wrong.
In 1966 “The Accountants Digest” of Burlington, Vermont reprinted an editorial containing the following attribution to Keynes:11
While the researchers are busy, should we sit back and do nothing, or as little as possible — or should we accept, with Lord Keynes, that “it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong”?
In 1969 Canadian accountant Howard Ross published the book “Financial Statements: A Crusade for Current Values” which presented the following epigraph on the initial page:12
It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong.
A comment attributed to John Maynard Keynes, which, whether he said it or not, should be seized upon as a guiding principle by anyone who wants to produce a better financial statement.
In 1978 J. Lorne McDougall published a column in a Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada newspaper containing an instance of the second adage:13
Life is like that. It calls every day for action based on incomplete knowledge. In such a situation the writer has one major obligation. He must, above all else, be clear. It is far better to be clearly and definitely wrong than to be vaguely and indefinitely right.
In 1979 Edmond A. Murphy published an opinion piece in “The American Journal of Medicine”. Murphy mentioned a version of the second adage although he did not endorse it:14
… that it is better to be precisely wrong than roughly accurate …
In 1992 Robert Skidelsky published the second volume of his three volume biography of John Maynard Keynes. Skidelsky attributed a version of the first adage to Keynes, but he did not use quotation marks. Also, Skidelsky did not provide a citation:15
Just as there was a theory embedded in the vision, so there was a model embedded in the theory. Keynes often said he preferred to be vaguely right than precisely wrong; but like all economists he was prone to the fallacy of misplaced precision. Above all, he wanted to influence policy.
In 2009 columnist Anthony Hilton of the “London Evening Standard” printed the following:16
The economist John Maynard Keynes once observed that it was better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. These days though it is quite the reverse.
The existence of these two divergent adages reminds QI of the following statement popularized by physicist Niels Bohr who labeled it an “old saying”:17
… the so-called “deep truths,” are statements in which the opposite also contains deep truth.
A separate Quote Investigator article about the above statement is available here.
In conclusion, Carveth Read wrote the first adage in his book “Logic: Deductive and Inductive” in 1898. Read is the leading candidate for creator of this saying. A version of the second adage was written by someone using the initials A. J. O. in “The Theosophical Review” in 1903. A. J. O. is the leading candidate for creator of the second adage.
QI has found no direct evidence that John Maynard Keynes used either adage. Keynes did write a statement expressing a similar notion to the first adage in “The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money” in 1936.
Image Notes: Graph of an upward sweeping curve from geralt at Pixabay. The image has been cropped and resized.
Acknowledgement: Great thanks to Barry Ritholtz whose inquiry about the first adage led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Ritholtz noted that the first adage had been attributed to John Maynard Keynes and Carveth Read. Also, thanks to Fred R. Shapiro’s “The New Yale Book of Quotations” which contained the Carveth Read citation.
- 1650 (Original publication date 1620), Novum Organum Scientiarum by Francis Bacon, Liber Secundus Aphorismorum, Section XX (20), Quote Page 200, Ex Officina Adrina Wyngaerden. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
- 1895, The Intellectual Rise in Electricity: A History by Park Benjamin PhD, Chapter 10, Quote Page 311 and 312, Longmans, Green, & Company, London. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
- 1898, Logic: Deductive and Inductive by Carveth Read, Chapter 22: Nomenclature; Definition; Predicables, Quote Page 272, Grant Richards, London. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
- 1903 April 15, The Theosophical Review, Volume 32, Number 188, Readings and Re-Readings: Coleridge’s “Aids To Reflection” by A. J. O., Start Page 161, Quote Page 168, Theosophical Publishing Society, London. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
- 1929, The Philosophy of Art by Curt John Ducasse (Professor at Brown University), Section: Preface, (Date on Preface: May 4, 1929), Quote Page iv, Lincoln Mac Veagh: The Dial Press, New York. (Google Books Full View) link ↩︎
- 1933 January, The Journal of Mental Science, Volume 79, Number 324, A Common Standpoint and Foundation for Psychopathology by Ian D. Suttie (Ian Dishart Suttie), Start Page 18, Quote Page 20, J. & A. Churchill, London. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1936, The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes, Book VI: Short Notes Suggested By the General Theory, Chapter 23: Notes On Mercantilism, the Usury Laws, Stamped Money and Theories of Under-Consumption, Quote Page 371, Macmillan and Company, London. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1942 December, The Economic Journal, Volume 52, Number 208, The Place of Marshall’s Principles in the Development of Economic Theory by G. F. Shove (Gerald Frank Shove), Start Page 294, Quote Page 323, Macmillan and Company, London. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1955 October 1, The Chemist and Druggist, Science Sessions: Chemical Estimation of Calciferol, Comment by Mr. K. Smith of Nottingham, Quote Page 387, Column 3, Official Organ of the Pharmaceutical Society of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Morgan Brothers Publishers, London. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1960 November 15, Akron Beacon Journal, New Ideas Come Hard by Sydney J. Harris, Quote Page 6, Column 6, Akron, Ohio. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1966 December, The Accountants Digest, Volume 32, Issue 2, The Accounts of Tomorrow (Editorial in The South African Chartered Accountant on September 1966), Start Page 112, Quote Page 113, Column 1, L. L. Briggs, Burlington, Vermont. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1969, Financial Statements: A Crusade for Current Values by Howard Ross (Partner in Touche Ross & Company, Canada), (Quotation appears as an epigraph at the beginning of the book), Sir Isaac Pitman, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1978 October 7, The Moncton Times, The price is too steep by J. Lorne McDougall, Quote Page 4, Column 3, Moncton Parish, New Brunswick, Canada. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1979 June, The American Journal of Medicine, Volume 66, Number 6, The Logic of Medicine by Edmond A. Murphy M.D., Start Page 907, Quote Page 907, Technical Publishing Company: A Division of Dun-Donnelley Publishing Corporation, New York.(Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 1992 Copyright, John Maynard Keynes by Robert Skidelsky, Volume 2: The Economist as Saviour 1920-1937, Chapter 15: Firing at the Moon, Quote Page 546, Allen Lane: The Penguin Press, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
- 2009 November 6, London Evening Standard, Don’t put all your faith in models by Anthony Hilton, Quote Page A46, Column 4, London, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
- 1959 (1949 Copyright), Albert Einstein: Philosopher-Scientist, Edited by Paul Arthur Schilpp, Chapter 7: Discussion with Einstein On Epistemological Problems in Atomic Physics by Niels Bohr, Quote Page 240, Harper Torchbooks, Harper & Row, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎