Search results for: it is difficult to make predictions

It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future

Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? K. K. Steincke? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous? Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Here are five examples: It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future. …

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Prediction About AI Systems: The Range of Problems They Can Handle Will Be Coextensive With the Range To Which the Human Mind Has Been Applied

Herbert A. Simon? Allen Newell? Apocryphal? Question for Quote Investigator: In the 1950s a pair of prominent researchers made several provocative predictions about artificial intelligence. The researchers believed that a computer program would become the world chess champion within a decade. They also believed that most psychological theories in the future would take the form …

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Quote Origin: The Book Publishing Industry Is Going To Be Wiped Off the Face of the Earth Soon

Matthew Yglesias? William Deresiewicz? Apocryphal? Question for Quote Investigator: Predicting the technological future is extremely difficult. In 2007 Amazon corporation introduced the Kindle ebook reader, and ebooks grew rapidly in popularity during the following years. Commentators envisioned dramatic upheavals in the book world. One influential pundit projected that publishers were going to be wiped out. …

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Quote Origin: It Will Become Clear That the Internet’s Impact on the Economy Has Been No Greater Than the Fax Machine’s

Paul Krugman? Herman Kahn? Steven D. Levitt? Stephen J. Dubner? Apocryphal? Question for Quote Investigator: Predicting the technological future is enormously difficult. Will society ever have flying cars, home robots, or cities on Mars? The opinions of enthusiasts, skeptics, and experts are highly variable. The record of most prognosticators has been poor. Apparently, during the …

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We Can Never Run Out of Energy or Matter. But We Can All Too Easily Run Out of Brains

Arthur C. Clarke? Gerard K. O’Neill? Apocryphal Dear Quote Investigator: The famous science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke was optimistic concerning the ability of human ingenuity to transcend current limitations. He believed that future technologies would overcome raw material shortages. The only constraint he feared was a lack of engaged human brains. Would you please …

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People Tend To Overestimate What Can Be Done In One Year And To Underestimate What Can Be Done In Five Or Ten Years

Bill Gates? Arthur C. Clarke? J. C. R. Licklider? Roy Amara? Alfred Mayo? George H. Heilmeier? Manfred Kochen? Raymond Kurzweil? Anonymous? Dear Quote investigator: Predicting the technological future of mankind is enormously difficult. One recurring flaw in such projections has been identified. Here are three versions: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology …

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Books Will Soon Be Obsolete in the Schools

Thomas Edison? Apocryphal? Dear Quote Investigator: Ebooks have surged in popularity since Amazon introduced the Kindle and Apple released the iPad. Some futurists believe that paper books will be phased out and replaced by electronic books. But I came across a fascinating false prediction made by the most important innovator of the previous century: Books …

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