Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? K. K. Steincke? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous?
Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Here are five examples:
- It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
- Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
- It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
- It’s dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
- Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Would you please tell me who I should credit?
Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest evidence known to QI appeared in the fourth volume titled “Farvel Og Tak” (“Goodbye and Thanks”) which was released in 1948. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. The saying appeared in a section with this title:
Og saa til Slut et Par parlamentariske Sprogblomster
And finally a couple of parliamentary howlers
The saying was spoken during the parliamentary year 1937-1938, and no attribution was specified. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:
Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”. More information about Danish citations for this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article.
The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A”. This early citation and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke:
Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future.
In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable:
“Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great.
Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Continue reading It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future