Quote Origin: We Cannot Predict the Future, But We Can Invent It

Dennis Gabor? Abraham Lincoln? Ilya Prigogine? Alan Kay? Steven Lisberger? Peter Drucker? Forrest C. Shaklee? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: I have seen several different versions of an adage about prediction and invention. Here are some examples:

  • The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented.
  • We cannot predict the future, but we can invent it.
  • The way to cope with the future is to create it.
  • The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
  • The best way to predict the future is to create it.
  • You cannot predict the future, but you can create it.

These sayings are not identical in meaning, but I think they fit together naturally as a group. Could you explore the origin of these expressions?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest evidence known to QI appeared in 1963 in the book “Inventing the Future” written by Dennis Gabor1 who was later awarded a Nobel Prize in Physics for his work in holography. Boldface has been added to the following passage and some excerpts further below:2

We are still the masters of our fate. Rational thinking, even assisted by any conceivable electronic computors, cannot predict the future. All it can do is to map out the probability space as it appears at the present and which will be different tomorrow when one of the infinity of possible states will have materialized. Technological and social inventions are broadening this probability space all the time; it is now incomparably larger than it was before the industrial revolution—for good or for evil.

The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. It was man’s ability to invent which has made human society what it is. The mental processes of inventions are still mysterious. They are rational but not logical, that is to say, not deductive.

In March 1963 the book was reviewed in the periodical New Scientist by the editor and writer Nigel Calder who found the saying memorable enough to include a rephrased version in his review:3

His basic approach is that we cannot predict the future, but we can invent it, hence his title. He is essentially optimistic.

In 1968 Orville Freeman, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, employed the same concise version of the saying during a government conference, and he credited Gabor:4

Dennis Gabor once said, “We cannot predict the future, but we can invent it.” And it was Wilbert Moore, the great sociologist, who told us that “Revolutions thrive on utopian images, and without such images they will fail.”

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: We Cannot Predict the Future, But We Can Invent It”

If We Should Have to Leave Our Bleached Bones on These Desert Sands in Vain, Then Beware the Anger of the Legions.

Marcus Flavinius? Jean Lartéguy? Jean Pouget? Roger Frey? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigate: I would like your help in determining the authenticity of an eloquent letter that was supposedly sent by Marcus Flavinius, a centurion, to his cousin in Rome. Flavinius was fighting in a military campaign overseas in the 2nd Century AD, and he stated that he and his fellow warriors were willing to shed their blood protecting the glory of the Empire. But he now feared that back in Rome there was conspiracy and treachery. He wanted assurance that the citizens supported the campaign, and he ended the note with a warning:

If it should be otherwise, if we should have to leave our bleached bones on these desert sands in vain, then beware the fury of the Legions.

Apparently it has been difficult to locate any historical record of a person named Marcus Flavinius. Is this letter legitimate?

Quote Investigator: The letter was probably a fake. The earliest known appearance of the text was in the epigraph of a bestselling French novel titled “Les Centurions” by Jean Lartéguy in 1960. The book was about the experiences of French military men in Vietnam and Algeria, and it was translated into English and published as “The Centurions” in 1962. By 1966 the letter had been reprinted without a source citation in the reference collection: “Dictionary of Military and Naval Quotations”.

Yet, Jean Lartéguy later claimed that he had been given fabricated information which he included in “Les Centurions”. He discussed this topic in his 1976 book “La Guerre Nue” which was translated into English and published as “The Face of War: Reflections on Men and Combat” in 1979. The supposed Roman letter from antiquity was part of the false information.

The text of the letter in French as it appeared in “Les Centurions” [LCJL] has been appended near the bottom of this post. Here is the English language version published in the 1962 edition of “The Centurions” [TCJL]:

We had been told, on leaving our native soil, that we were going to defend the sacred rights conferred on us by so many of our citizens settled overseas, so many years of our presence, so many benefits brought by us to populations in need of our assistance and our civilization.

We were able to verify that all this was true, and, because it was true, we did not hesitate to shed our quota of blood, to sacrifice our youth and our hopes. We regretted nothing, but whereas we over here are inspired by this frame of mind, I am told that in Rome factions and conspiracies are rife, that treachery flourishes, and that many people in their uncertainty and confusion lend a ready ear to the dire temptations of relinquishment and vilify our action.

I cannot believe that all this is true and yet recent wars have shown how pernicious such a state of mind could be and to where it could lead.

Make haste to reassure me, I beg you, and tell me that our fellow-citizens understand us, support us and protect us as we ourselves are protecting the glory of the Empire.

If it should be otherwise, if we should have to leave our bleached bones on these desert sands in vain, then beware of the anger of the Legions!

Marcus Flavinius,
Centurion in the 2nd Cohort of the Augusta Legion,
to his cousin Tertullus in Rome

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “If We Should Have to Leave Our Bleached Bones on These Desert Sands in Vain, Then Beware the Anger of the Legions.”

Some People Feel the Rain. Others Just Get Wet

Bob Dylan? Bob Marley? Roger Miller? Donald Freeman? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: I love the following quote, and have used it on my blog:

Some people feel the rain. Others just get wet.

After researching the origin of the saying, it still remains unclear. Two famous musicians named Bob have each been credited: Bob Dylan and Bob Marley. I would like to list the correct source on my blog. Could you examine this question?

Quote Investigator: It is unlikely that Bob Dylan or Bob Marley crafted this expression. The wordsmith was probably another musician.

Roger Miller was a popular country singer and song writer in the U.S. who was best known for the hits “King of the Road” and “Dang Me”. In 1972 he was the star and host of a late-night television special on the ABC network titled “Roger Miller with His Friends and His Music”. A reviewer stated that Miller employed the line during the telecast. Boldface has been added to excerpts:[1]1972 December 31, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, Section G: TV Weekly Log, “King of the Road” Roger Miller Wears No Special Labels Except He’s Talented, Quote Page 5, Column 4, Lubbock, … Continue reading

Miller’s wit is deeply philosophical in the same way. It’s the second thought that counts, just as it did with Will Rogers. One line on the ABC late-night special exemplifies this type of humor-based-on-tragic-truth: “Some people feel the rain; others just get wet.”

This was the earliest evidence known to QI. The program was recorded in 1972, and the review was published on December 31, 1972; however, the program was actually broadcast the next day on January 1, 1973 according to the “Lubbock Avalanche-Journal” of Lubbock, Texas.

In December 1973 Donald Freeman who was the TV-Radio editor at “The San Diego Union” in California wrote column with the theme: “looking back at 1973”. Freeman presented a series of anecdotes and laugh-lines from the concluding year, and he ascribed the line to Roger Miller:[2] 1973 December 21, San Diego Union, Donald Freeman: TV-Radio Editor, Page C-13, Column 1, San Diego, California, (GenealogyBank)

And there was philosophy from Roger Miller, who noted: “Some people feel the rain. Others just get wet.”

In March 1978 Freeman mentioned the saying in his column again. He must have found it noteworthy, and he repeated the attribution to Miller:[3] 1978 March 09, San Diego Union, Don Freeman: TV-Radio Editor, Page D-19, Column 1, San Diego, California, (GenealogyBank)

A touch of philosophy from Roger Miller: “Some people feel the rain — others just get wet”

In September 1978 the quote was reprinted as an epigraph in a syndicated newspaper column about a popular card game called “Aces on Bridge”:[4] 1978 September 20, Times-Picayune, Aces on Bridge by Ira G. Corn, Section 2: Page 2, [GNB Page 24], New Orleans, Louisiana. (GenealogyBank)

“Some people feel the rain. Others just get wet.”
— Roger Miller.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Some People Feel the Rain. Others Just Get Wet”

References

References
↑1 1972 December 31, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, Section G: TV Weekly Log, “King of the Road” Roger Miller Wears No Special Labels Except He’s Talented, Quote Page 5, Column 4, Lubbock, Texas. (Newspapers_com)
↑2 1973 December 21, San Diego Union, Donald Freeman: TV-Radio Editor, Page C-13, Column 1, San Diego, California, (GenealogyBank)
↑3 1978 March 09, San Diego Union, Don Freeman: TV-Radio Editor, Page D-19, Column 1, San Diego, California, (GenealogyBank)
↑4 1978 September 20, Times-Picayune, Aces on Bridge by Ira G. Corn, Section 2: Page 2, [GNB Page 24], New Orleans, Louisiana. (GenealogyBank)

Quote Origin: It’s Easy to Quit Smoking. I’ve Done It a Thousand Times

Mark Twain? W. C. Fields? Harris Dickson? Barracuda Pete? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: I mentioned a joke credited to Mark Twain to a friend recently:

It’s easy to quit smoking. I’ve done it hundreds of times.

She said that the jest was actually created by the famous comedian W. C. Fields and not Twain. Also, she claimed the original version was about drinking and not smoking:

It’s easy to quit drinking. I’ve done it a thousand times.

The results of my internet searches were confusing. The phrasing of the comical remark varies; for example, here is another quotation attributed to Twain:

Giving up smoking is the easiest thing in the world. I know because I’ve done it thousands of times.

No one seems to know when or where these statements were made. Could you explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Mark Twain did write about quitting smoking, but there is no substantive evidence that he made this particular joke. W. C. Fields did deliver a version of the gag about stopping drinking in a comedy routine called “The Temperance Lecture” which was broadcast to radio listeners by 1938. However, the drinking joke was in circulation years earlier.

The earliest evidence located by QI for this humorous schema was in a 1905 novel titled “Duke of Devil-May-Care” by Harris Dickson. The domain was gambling instead of smoking or drinking. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1 2

“Noel,” he said, “I thought you’d quit playing poker?”

Duke smiled back blandly. “I have; I’ve quit more’n a thousand times, every time the game breaks up. Shucks, boy, it’s dead easy to quit playing poker. But I must have a little sport when I go to town—that don’t count. I’ve got to tear down the gates and take the bridles off for a day or so; my system needs it.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: It’s Easy to Quit Smoking. I’ve Done It a Thousand Times”

Lose As If You Like It, and Win As If You Are Used to It

Ralph Waldo Emerson? Eric Mark Golnik? Thomas Hitchcock, Jr.? Thomas Hitchcock, Sr.?  F. Ambrose Clark? Rosalind Russell? Jock Whitney? Desi Arnaz? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: There is a quotation about sportsmanship that I would like to learn more about:

Win as if you were used to it, lose as if you enjoyed it for a change.

I have seen these words credited to Ralph Waldo Emerson, Eric Mark Golnik, and anonymous. Could you examine this saying?

Quote Investigator: QI has found no compelling evidence linking the coinage of the saying to Emerson or Golnik. The earliest relevant citation located by QI was a precursor printed in The Times of London in 1920. An article about the Tennis Amateur Championship praised a player named E. L. Phillips [TCPH]:

Mr. Phillips has learned the most difficult thing in all games, to lose as if he liked it, and is therefore even a pleasure to play against, in spite of the fact that he often wins.

The excerpt above presented part of the saying. A more complete version appeared in a 1929 book in the domain of horse racing titled:  “Between the Flags: The Recollections of a Gentleman Rider”. The author placed the statement between quotation marks indicating that the adage was already in circulation without attribution [BFHP]:

In racing, the rough and the smooth are so quickly interchangeable that the only path safe from the ridiculous, is the one guarded by “Win as if you are used to it. Lose as if you liked it.”

In 1942 the Edwardsville Intelligencer, a newspaper in Illinois, published the maxim as a freestanding sentence without ascription, i.e., as filler material. The word “it” in the phrase “like it” was apparently accidentally omitted [LLEI]:

Lose as if you like, and win as if you were used to it.

In April 1943 a Texas newspaper assigned the adage to an individual [LRTH]:

Lose as if you like it, and win as if you were used to it — Thomas Hitchcock.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Lose As If You Like It, and Win As If You Are Used to It”

No One Can Win at Roulette Unless He Steals Money from the Table While the Croupier Isn’t Looking

Albert Einstein? Nick the Greek? Nicholas Dandolos? Ted Thackrey, Jr.? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: According to a legend in the gambling world Albert Einstein once visited a Las Vegas casino and after observing the action around the roulette wheel he said:

You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.

Any truth to this story?

Quote Investigator: QI believes this quotation can be traced back to an article and a book by a controversial reporter named Ted Thackrey, Jr. In 1968 the Toledo Blade newspaper of Ohio published a series of articles by Thackrey under the title “Secrets of a Master Gambler”. The fourth article discussed a colorful gambler named Nick the Greek who died in 1966 and whose full name was Nicholas Andrea Dandolos. A version of the saying attributed to Einstein was included [AETT]:

Indeed, Albert Einstein once made the flat statement no one could possibly win at roulette “unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.”

But during the little mathematician’s visit to Las Vegas the Greek stopped off briefly at a roulette table, bought a handful of chips, plunked them down on red — won — and let them ride for two more spins, on which red also appeared.

Then he cashed in, pocketed his winning and grinned at the scientist.

Also in 1968 Thackrey published the book “Gambling Secrets of Nick the Greek” which gave a more elaborate account of the supposed interactions of the famous gambler and Einstein [AEBG]:

Just how or when the gambler and the scientist happened to become acquainted was a matter that neither man ever bothered to explain.

According to Thackrey the event at the roulette wheel occurred when Dandolos was showing Einstein around the city [AEBG]:

So when the great mathematician decided to make a brief stopover in the gambling capital during a coast-to-coast journey, it seemed only natural that The Greek should be waiting at the airport to greet him and conduct him on a special tour of the city’s principal points of interest.

In the book the description of the roulette anecdote was extended, and after Dandolos won three times Einstein was apologetic [AEBG]:

Then he cashed in, pocketed his winnings, and grinned at the scientist.
“Any questions?”
“One,” said Einstein.
“And it is . . ?”
“I was wondering if you would be kind enough to wash my mouth out with soap?”

Humorous and outlandish details were presented as true by Thackrey [AEBG]:

Realizing that most of his gambling friends wouldn’t understand who Einstein was if he told them, Nick introduced the scientific genius as “Little Al from Princeton—controls a lot of the action around Jersey.”

In the book Dandolos and Einstein discussed the odds of various games, and Einstein wondered why someone would play a game like Chuck-A-Luck with such poor winning odds. Dandolos was also unable to understand the psychology of such gamblers.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “No One Can Win at Roulette Unless He Steals Money from the Table While the Croupier Isn’t Looking”

Would You Ever Ask a Man that Question?

Hillary Clinton? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: I saw on Facebook recently a supposed quotation from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. While visiting some country in Central Asia she was asked by a reporter about fashion and she replied:

Would you ever ask a man that question?

No details were given about when or where this remark was made. Is this a real quote?

Quote Investigator: The official U.S. State Department website has a transcript for Hillary Clinton’s visit to Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on December 2, 2010. The following interchange is listed [HCKG]:

MODERATOR 1: Okay. Which designers do you prefer?
SECRETARY CLINTON: What designers of clothes?
MODERATOR 1: Yes.
SECRETARY CLINTON: Would you ever ask a man that question? (Laughter.) (Applause.)
MODERATOR 1: Probably not. Probably not. (Applause.)
MODERATOR 2: How many hours do you sleep?
SECRETARY CLINTON: That’s my answer.
MODERATOR 1: Yeah, I got it. I got it. That was a tough one.

In conclusion, the quotation is accurate, and the interaction took place in 2010 in Kyrgyzstan.

(Thanks to Brandi Sperry whose tweet inspired this exploration, and thanks to James Callan who notified QI of Sperry’s interrogative.)

[HCKG] U.S. Department of State website, Transcript, Townterview Hosted by KTR, Remarks: Hillary Rodham Clinton – Secretary of State, KTR Studio: Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Date: December 2, 2010. (Accessed at state.gov on September 6, 2012) link

Anecdote: It Will Take Them Ten Years to Prove Me Wrong

Winston Churchill? Paul S. Nadler? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: I heard this story many years ago at an economics convention.  I’ve contacted the Churchill Archive and a couple of renowned Churchill scholars, and so far the answer seems to be “apocryphal,” as with so many great quotes attributed to the Great Quote Magnet. But it does fit his character. Here goes:

As Chancellor of the Exchequer in the mid-1920s, Churchill asked his chief economist what would be required to produce a good estimate of the total cost of World War I to Britain.  The economist replied that it would take ten years by the best means available, whereupon Churchill promised his answer to the Prime Minister that same day.  He explained:  “If I give him my best guess this afternoon, it will take ten years for anyone to prove me wrong.”

Can you uncover something about this anecdote?

Quote Investigator: QI has found a few examples of stories that fit this general template. The earliest was published in Coronet magazine in 1945 and Winston Churchill was the primary character. However, the setting was World War 2 and not World War 1 [CRWC]:

During the early days of his prime ministership, Winston Churchill’s war expenditures aroused an opposition member of Parliament to demand a strict accounting of the vast sums involved. Well aware that such an accounting would be almost impossible to make within the time set, the MP sat back to wait for the fiasco. Churchill, however, blandly promised to have the figures ready the very next day, and true to his word he did. At any rate, he read off a series of figures that ran into 103,429,009 pounds, eight shillings and sixpence. The opposition was promptly silenced.

The session over, a friend asked Churchill how he had worked the miracle. “Quite simple,” Churchill confessed. “I made those figures up as I went along. It will take the opposition at least three months and a score of clerks to prove me wrong—if they care to try it!

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Anecdote: It Will Take Them Ten Years to Prove Me Wrong”

Life Is a Journey, Not a Destination

Ralph Waldo Emerson? Lynn H. Hough? Aerosmith? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: Ralph Waldo Emerson is often credited with the following:

Life is a journey, not a destination.

I’ve searched the RWE.org database without luck and did a text search through over 1100 pages of his essays. I believe this is a misattribution. Any insight you have into the lineage of this quote would be much appreciated.

Reply from Quote Investigator: An exact match for the expression above has not been found in the oeuvre of Ralph Waldo Emerson. Yet, Emerson did write a thematically related remark:1

To finish the moment, to find the journey’s end in every step of the road, to live the greatest number of good hours, is wisdom.

This sentence suggested a psychological vantage point in which the intermediate advances of the journey were representative of the completion of the journey. This is arguably a distinct statement from the questioner’s saying which is listed in “The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs” without attachment to a specific person.2

The earliest close match located by QI appeared in 1920 in a periodical called “The Christian Advocate”. The phrase was used by the theologian Lynn H. Hough within his outline for a Sunday School Lesson discussing a letter from Simon Peter. Bold face has been added to the phrase here and some phrases below:3

He wanted his friends to realize that life is a journey and not a destination; that the heart must be set upon those matters of character which are eternal and not upon those matters of sensation which pass away.

Interesting precursors of the expression were in circulation in the previous century. In 1854 “The Sunday at Home: A Family Magazine for Sabbath Reading” printed a “Page for the Young” with the following advice:4

You should learn in early youth that your life is a journey, not a rest. You are travelling to the promised land, from the cradle to the grave.

In 1855 another religious text used a variant phrase and provided an explanation:5

All life is a journey, not a home; it is a road, not the country; and those transient enjoyments which you have in this life, lawful in their way,—those incidental and evanescent pleasures which you may sip,—are not home; they are little inns only upon the road-side of life, where you are refreshed for a moment, that you may take again the pilgrim-staff and journey on, seeking what is still before you—the rest that remaineth for the people of God.

A decade later the passage above was reprinted in a collection entitled “A Cyclopaedia of Illustrations of Moral and Religious Truths”; however, it was labeled ANON.6

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Life Is a Journey, Not a Destination”

Advice: Substitute ‘Damn’ Every Time You’re Inclined to Write ‘Very’

Mark Twain? William Allen White? Franklin P. Adams? Brock Pemberton? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: I’ve been quoting an editor-friend’s advice for years, and suddenly tonight I see it online attributed to Mark Twain:

Substitute ‘damn’ every time you’re inclined to write ‘very’; your editor will delete it and the writing will be just as it should be.

If that’s really Twain, what work is it from, please? It’s all over the Internet on quote sites.

Quote Investigator: There is no substantive evidence that Mark Twain said this. It is not listed on the important Twain Quotes website edited by Barbara Schmidt.[1] TwainQuotes.com website edited by Barbara Schmidt. [Mark Twain Quotations, Newspaper Collections, & Related Resources] (Searched August 29, 2012) link

In the earliest citation located by QI the humorous advice was credited to William Allen White who was a prominent newspaper editor based in Emporia, Kansas. Here is the tale as told in 1935 by a columnist in a Seattle, Washington newspaper:[2] 1935 October 18, Seattle Daily Times, Strolling Around the Town, Second Main News Section: Front Page [GNB Page 37], Column 3 and 4, Seattle, Washington. (GenealogyBank)

William Allen White’s visit here, en route to the Philippines, recalled the story of the famous Kansas editor and publisher’s meeting several years ago with a group of fledgling newspaper men in Lawrence. Kas. The “cubs” listened eagerly to everything “the Sage of Emporia” had to say and besought him to give them some advice about news writing.

“I never give advice,” said Mr. White, “but there is one thing I wish you would do when you sit down to write news stories, and that is: Never use the word, ‘very.’ It is the weakest word in the English language; doesn’t mean anything. If you feel the urge of ‘very’ coming on, just write the word, ‘damn,’ in the place of ‘very.’ The editor will strike out the word, ‘damn,’ and you will have a good sentence.”

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Advice: Substitute ‘Damn’ Every Time You’re Inclined to Write ‘Very’”

References

References
↑1 TwainQuotes.com website edited by Barbara Schmidt. [Mark Twain Quotations, Newspaper Collections, & Related Resources] (Searched August 29, 2012) link
↑2 1935 October 18, Seattle Daily Times, Strolling Around the Town, Second Main News Section: Front Page [GNB Page 37], Column 3 and 4, Seattle, Washington. (GenealogyBank)