Risk Comes from Not Knowing What You’re Doing

Warren Buffett? Jim Rasmussen? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: The investment record of Warren Buffett has been astonishingly successful. His reputation for sagacity means that his tongue can transform a prosaic remark into an adage of wry plainspoken wisdom such as the following:

Risk comes from not knowing what you’re going.

I have seen low quality citations in secondary sources from the 2010s. Can you help me to find a good citation for this comment?

Quote Investigator: In 1993 Warren Buffett spoke to graduate students at Columbia University’s Business School in New York City. Reporter Jim Rasmussen wrote about the event in January 1994 in the “Omaha World-Herald” of Nebraska.

A student asked Buffett how he evaluated investments and risk, and Buffett used the Washington Post Company as an example of a safe investment circa 1973. He stated that the company’s market value at that time was underestimated because it was substantially lower than the value of the properties it owned. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI: 1

And it was being run by honest and able people who all had a significant part of their net worth in the business. It was ungodly safe. It wouldn’t have bothered me to put my whole net worth in it. Not in the least.

Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.

Interestingly, “The Washington Post” and other newspaper and media organizations have become riskier assets in modern times because of internet induced turmoil. Amazon leader Jeff Bezos purchased the paper in 2013.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading Risk Comes from Not Knowing What You’re Doing


  1. 1994 January 2, Omaha World-Herald, Section: Business, Billionaire Talks Strategy With Students Columbia University Group Hears From Famous Alumnus Berkshire Hathaway by Jim Rasmussen (Herald Staff Writer), Quote Page 17S, Omaha, Nebraska. (The article text in the database misspelled “knowing” as “knowning”) (NewsBank Access World News)

The Chains of Habit Are Too Light To Be Felt Until They Are Too Heavy To Be Broken

Warren Buffett? Samuel Johnson? Maria Edgeworth? Bertrand Russell? Anonymous?

edgeworth01Dear Quote Investigator: I recall seeing a lecture by the famed investor Warren Buffett during which he cautioned his audience to avoid falling into self-destructive behavior patterns. He used this eloquent analysis:

The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.

While searching for a source I found some other versions of the statement. Here are two that are credited to the brilliant dictionary-maker Samuel Johnson:

The chains of habit are too weak to be felt until they are too strong to be broken

The diminutive chains of habit are seldom heavy enough to be felt until they are too strong to be broken.

I was unable to find a precise citation to Dr. Johnson’s works. Could you examine this adage?

Quote Investigator: Investor Warren Buffett did use this phrase more than once during speeches, but he did not claim credit for originating the saying. Detailed citations are given further below.

The expression has a long history, and the famous lexicographer and man of letters Samuel Johnson did write a prolix passage that was transformed and simplified in an evolutionary process that ultimately produced the concise modern aphorism used by Buffett.

In 1748 Johnson published an allegorical fable about the path to the Temple of Happiness titled “The Vision of Theodore”. The story warned readers using a symbolic figure named Habit who would bind the unwary in chains. A bound individual would be taken to a grim destination called the caverns of Despair. The following excerpt displayed a conceptual match to the modern saying. In addition, Johnson used the phrase “too strong to be broken” which was retained in some modern instances. Boldface has been added below: 1

It was the peculiar artifice of Habit not to suffer her power to be felt at first. Those whom she led, she had the address of appearing only to attend, but was continually doubling her chains upon her companions; which were so slender in themselves, and so silently fastened, that while the attention was engaged by other objects, they were not easily perceived. Each link grew tighter as it had been longer worn, and when, by continual additions, they became so heavy as to be felt, they were very frequently too strong to be broken.

In the early 1800s an influential Irish writer named Maria Edgeworth crafted a compact version of the sentiment expressed by Samuel Johnson. Her book “Moral Tales for Young People” (second edition 1806) included a story called “Forester”, and in one scene the title character picked up a pair of scissors and twirled them on his finger absentmindedly. The character believed that this habit was undesirable: 2

He was rather ashamed to perceive that he had not yet cured himself of such a silly habit. “I thought the lesson I got at the brewery,” said he, “would have cured me for ever of this foolish trick; but the diminutive chains of habit, as somebody says, are scarcely ever heavy enough to be felt, till they are too strong to be broken.

Maria Edgeworth placed a footnote asterisk after the phrase “chains of habit”, and in the footnote she referenced “Dr. Johnson’s Vision of Theodore.” Edgeworth’s concise summary statement was clearly derived from Johnson’s story, but her expression was distinctive and did not appear directly in the fable’s text. Her forthright acknowledgement of Johnson probably facilitated some later confusion.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading The Chains of Habit Are Too Light To Be Felt Until They Are Too Heavy To Be Broken


  1. 1748 April, The Gentleman’s Magazine, Volume 18, “The Vision of Theodore, The Hermit of Teneriffe, Found in His Cell” (by Samuel Johnson), Start Page 159, Quote Page 160, Printed by E. Cave, St John’s Gate, London. (Google Books full view) link
  2. 1806, Moral Tales For Young People by Miss Edgeworth (Maria Edgeworth), Volume 1, Second Edition, Forester, Quote Page 86, Printed for J. Johnson, London. (Google Books full view) link

Gold Gets Dug Out of the Ground; Then We Melt It Down, Dig Another Hole, Bury It Again

Warren Buffett? Frank Fellinger? Apocryphal? Anonymous?

buffettgold01Dear Quote Investigator: The funniest and most perceptive comment about the precious metal gold is attributed to the super-investor Warren Buffett:

Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.

Did Buffett really say this?

Quote Investigator: The earliest evidence known to QI of this quotation in a major newspaper was printed in The Times of London in July 2003: 1

Warren Buffett, the renowned investor, famously dismissed gold in a speech given at Harvard in 1998. He said: “It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

The five year gap between 1998 and 2003 weakens the probative value of this citation. QI has not yet located a transcript of the supposed 1998 speech. A statement from Buffett himself on this topic would be desirable.

So, QI reached out to the accomplished financial journalist Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal who contacted the personal assistant of Warren Buffett with an enquiry about the quotation. The assistant conferred with Buffett and sent the following reply: 2

I double-checked this with Warren. He never writes out prepared speeches. But he has said things like this in the past.

This statement supported the attribution and corroborated multiple citations that name Buffett as originator of the expression; however, the answer was still not definitive. A cite with a date closer to 1998 giving more details of the speech would be welcomed by QI.

Pronouncements about gold and silver that conform to this theme have a very long history. In 1877 a newspaper in Galveston, Texas wrote about the “The Monetary Problem” using similar vocabulary and tropes. Remarkably, this passage from more than 135 years ago also included a puzzled alien creature: 3

Look at the actual history of our metallic money; see at what great cost we procure it from its ores, coin it, pass it from hand to hand, finally to bury it again in the vault of some bank. The dust of centuries rests upon coin laid away in the Bank of England. A hundred millions are now buried under the Treasury building in Washington, and probably ever will be together with much more, for should the government ever accumulate enough to offer to redeem the greenback at par, nobody would present the greenbacks for redemption. The paper, being the more convenient money, would be kept and the gold and silver left to slumber where we have been at such pains to store it.

If a being from another world should come among us to study our habits, how he would be puzzled as he saw us with infinite labor obtain from deep in the earth a shining substance, zealously guard it to an establishment where it was cut into small pieces, and then hide the pieces where they could be neither seen nor touched; occasionally he would observe an expression of fear and anxiety upon our faces, we would rush wildly about, drag out our precious pieces and hide them elsewhere, and yet drag them out again and yet hide them elsewhere.

Thanks to top researcher Suzanne Watkins who found the marvelous citation above.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading Gold Gets Dug Out of the Ground; Then We Melt It Down, Dig Another Hole, Bury It Again


  1. 2003 July 21, The Times (UK), Section: Business, “Demand for global listing helps to put new gloss on gold”, Quote Page 21, London, England. (NewsBank Access World News)
  2. Personal communication via email from Jason Zweig to Garson O’Toole dated May 21, 2013. The message contained the forwarded message from Debbie Bosanek, Assistant to Warren Buffett.
  3. 1877 August 9, Galveston Daily News, The Monetary Problem, Page unnumbered (final page), Column 5, Galveston, Texas. (NewspaperArchive)

Look Around the Poker Table; If You Can’t See the Sucker, You’re It

Warren Buffett? Michael Wolff? Amarillo Slim? Poker Proverb? Whispering Saul?

Dear Quote Investigator: There is a quotation I have seen in several books and periodicals aimed at investors. Here is one version:

If you have been in a poker game for a while, and you still don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.

These words are sometimes labeled an “old saying” and sometimes attributed to the legendary super-investor Warren Buffett. What do you think?

Quote Investigator: Warren Buffett did use a version of this quotation in a letter he sent to the shareholders of his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The letter was dated February 29, 1988, and it summarized business activity in 1987. Buffett discussed a metaphorical figure called “Mr. Market” and indicated that a skilled investor should have knowledge that is superior to that of “Mr. Market” [BHWB]:

Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game.  As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”

However, Buffett did not claim that he originated the saying; instead, he suggested it was an aphorism used by poker players. QI has located four instances of the saying in 1979 and these appear to be the earliest currently known though earlier examples are likely to exist.

In 1979 the book “The Aggressive Conservative Investor” used a statement of the advice as an epigraph for chapter ten where it was identified as a “Poker Proverb” [ACPP]:

If after ten minutes at the poker table you do not know who the patsy is—you are the patsy.


In June of 1979 in the Atlantic Monthly a story about investing titled “Smart People, Smart Money” included a version of the saying in the summary paragraph that prefaced the article. The words were credited to an individual with the alias “Whispering Saul” [AMWS]:

A stockbroker introduces his financial advisers, such sages as Billy the Shooter and Father Abraham and the wise Whispering Saul, who reminds us, “If you sit in on a poker game and don’t see a sucker, get up. You’re the sucker.”

Here are some additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading Look Around the Poker Table; If You Can’t See the Sucker, You’re It

Go for a Business that Any Idiot Can Run

Warren Buffett? Peter Lynch?

Dear Quote Investigator: In 2008 I read an interview with the super-investor Warren Buffett in which he said you should put your money into a company that can be run by an idiot because eventually it will be run by an idiot. But that advice sounded familiar to me. Did someone offer this recommendation before Buffett?

Quote Investigator: You are correct that similar advice antedates the 2008 comment from Buffett; however, Buffett was not asserting originality. He credited the idea to a generic speaker identified as: “they”.

Continue reading Go for a Business that Any Idiot Can Run