Quote Investigator® – Page 17

Quote Origin: Predicted Nine Out of the Last Five Recessions

Paul Samuelson? Economists? Wall Street Indexes? Katharyn Duff? Lawrence Summers? Niall Ferguson?

Question for Quote Investigator: Predicting the fluctuations of the economy is enormously difficult. Many economists have forecast recessions that never occurred. Here are three comical expressions:

(1) Economists have predicted 11 of the last 5 recessions.
(2) The markets projected twelve of the last eight recessions.
(3) Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions.

Would you please explore the provenance of this family of quips?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest match known to QI appeared in “Newsweek” magazine in September 1966 within a column by prominent U.S. economist Paul Samuelson. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

… stock prices do show more ups and downs than gross national product or business indicators generally. To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.

QI conjectures that Samuelson’s remark initiated an efflorescence of related comments which appeared during subsequent months and years.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Please Accept Our Apologies. We Were Roaring Drunk On Petroleum

Kurt Vonnegut? Jacqueline Blais? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: A prominent writer was unhappy that the world was not rapidly phasing out the use of fossil fuels. So the wit wrote a sardonic explanation for future generations. Here are two versions:

(1) We were roaring drunk on petroleum.
(2) We were rolling drunk on petroleum.

These words have been attributed to U.S. novelist and essayist Kurt Vonnegut. Would you please help me to find a citation and to determine the correct phrasing?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Kurt Vonnegut expressed this idea on multiple occasions. In February 2006 Vonnegut attended the Connecticut Forum in Hartford Connecticut, and he participated in a panel discussion with fellow writers. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Asked about a reference in his most recent book to the world’s dependence on oil, he offered this message to future generations: “Please accept our apologies. We were roaring drunk on petroleum. … My reading of history [is] the only fun most human beings have ever had … has been driving automobiles. … Eventually we will run out of fossil fuels. I think the world is ending.”

Thus, Kurt Vonnegut deserves credit for this saying. The ellipses above appeared in the original newspaper text.

The variant with “rolling” instead of “roaring” entered circulation by 2008, but Vonnegut died in 2007, and QI has found no direct evidence that he employed the variant.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Writing, At Least a Craft and At Its Best an Art, Aspiring To the Unique, Is the Most Difficult of All To Learn

Jacques Barzun? Morris Philipson? Apocryphal?

Vermeer’s painting of “Lady Writing a Letter with Her Maid”

Question for Quote Investigator: There are several roles in the domain of publishing. A prominent thinker has asserted that writing “is the most difficult of all to learn”. The thinker also said writing is “at least a craft and at its best an art”.

These remarks have been attributed to French-American historian Jacques Barzun and U.S. publisher Morris Philipson. I have not been able to find a citation. Who do you think deserves credit? Would you please help?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The answer to this inquiry reveals an intriguing misquotation mechanism. The quotation of interest was crafted by Morris Philipson who was the Director of The University of Chicago Press for more than thirty years. Philipson wrote the foreword to a collection of essays by Jacques Barzun titled “On Writing, Editing, and Publishing: Essays Explicative and Hortatory”.

The quotation appeared within the foreword, but QI conjectures that a careless person looked only at the name of the main author of the collection and assigned the quotation to Barzun. Here is an excerpt from the foreword by Philipson. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Publishing, being a business, offers the most objective conditions for teaching and for evaluating how successfully the trainee is learning his job; editing, too, less sharply defined but seeking to be a profession, offers some opportunities for knowing whether one is learning one’s trade; but writing, at least a craft and at its best an art, aspiring to the unique, is the most difficult of all to learn.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Nothing That Makes Us Happy Is an Illusion

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe? Jules Verne? Friedrich Nietzsche? Apocryphal?

“Portrait of the Young Goethe” by Angelica Kauffmann circa 1787

Question for Quote Investigator: A character in a novel by the prominent German poet and novelist Johann Wolfgang von Goethe presented a radical stance on happiness and illusion. Here are two versions:

(1) Nothing which makes us happy is an illusion?
(2) Can that be a delusion which makes us happy?

The pioneering French science fiction author Jules Verne said something similar. Would you please help me to find precise citations?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Johann Wolfgang von Goethe published the epistolary novel “Die Leiden des jungen Werthers” (“The Sorrows of Young Werther”) in 1774. The main character Werther fell in love with Charlotte, but she was already committed to a relationship with Albert; hence, Werther’s connection to Charlotte was required to remain platonic.

During one episode in the novel, Werther sent a servant to speak with Charlotte. Goethe signaled Werther’s infatuation with Charlotte by describing his reaction to the servant upon his return. Werther felt joy by simply seeing the servant because he knew that Charlotte had also gazed upon the servant. Werther mentioned this unusual reaction to a friend named Wilhelm:¹

Es war mir so wohl in seiner Gegenwart — Bewahre dich Gott, daß du darüber nicht lachst Wilhelm, sind das Phantomen, wenn es uns wohl wird?

Here is one possible translation into English:

I felt so happy in his presence, God forbid that you should laugh at this Wilhelm, are these things phantasms if they make us feel good?

The following translation appeared in 1784:²

… I was so happy to see him! Beware of laughing at me, my good friend: nothing which makes us happy is an illusion.

In 1868 another translation appeared:³

His presence made me so happy! Beware of laughing at me, Wilhelm. Can that be a delusion which makes us happy?

Below are additional selected citations.

Quote Origin: I Don’t Think the Human Race Will Survive the Next Thousand Years, Unless We Spread Into Space

Stephen Hawking? Alvin Toffler? David Deutsch? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: Humankind currently inhabits only one small fragile planet, and the perils on Earth continue to grow. A prominent physicist once insisted that humankind must expand into space in order to survive the next thousand years.

I am not sure of the exact phrasing. Would you please help me to determine the name of the physicist and the phrasing employed for this warning?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 2001 “The Daily Telegraph” of London published an interview with cosmologist Stephen Hawking. He was asked about the threats facing humanity. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

“… in the long term, I am more worried about biology. Nuclear weapons need large facilities, but genetic engineering can be done in a small lab. You can’t regulate every lab in the world.

“The danger is that either by accident or design, we create a virus that destroys us. I don’t think the human race will survive the next thousand years, unless we spread into space. There are too many accidents that can befall life on a single planet.”

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: It Will Become Clear That the Internet’s Impact on the Economy Has Been No Greater Than the Fax Machine’s

Paul Krugman? Herman Kahn? Steven D. Levitt? Stephen J. Dubner? Apocryphal?

Abstract representation of digital communications from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: Predicting the technological future is enormously difficult. Will society ever have flying cars, home robots, or cities on Mars? The opinions of enthusiasts, skeptics, and experts are highly variable. The record of most prognosticators has been poor. Apparently, during the 1990s when the internet was embryonic a prominent economist said:

It will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.

Would you please help me to identify the economist and find a citation?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In June 1998 Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman published a piece in “Red Herring” magazine titled “Why most economists’ predictions are wrong”. Krugman discussed the overly optimistic predictions of futurist Herman Kahn:¹

An example: though Kahn was skeptical that housecleaning robots would be available by 1984, he regarded them as more or less a sure thing by 2000.

Krugman’s article presented the following thesis:

The truth is that we live in an age not of extraordinary progress but of technological disappointment. And that’s why the future is not what it used to be.

Krugman took a skeptical stance about the transformational nature of the internet. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law”—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: The Worst Tempered People I’ve Ever Met Were People Who Knew They Were Wrong

David Letterman? Wilson Mizner? Edward Dean Sullivan? Apocryphal?

Theater masks depicting Comedy and Tragedy

Question for Quote Investigator: People who are angry and irritable often conceal a secret. They know they are mistaken about something vital. Here is a germane saying:

The worst tempered people I have ever met were people who knew they were wrong.

This saying has been attributed to comedian and television host David Letterman. Yet, I think it is older because it has also been credited to playwright and wit Wilson Mizner. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Wilson Mizner died in 1933, and two years later Edward Dean Sullivan published a biography titled “The Fabulous Wilson Mizner” which included a section of quips called “Miznerisms”. The following four items appeared in this section. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

I’ve had several years in Hollywood and I still think the movie heroes are in the audience.

A fellow who is always declaring he’s no fool, usually has his suspicions.

The worst tempered people I’ve ever met were people who knew they were wrong.

Some of the greatest love affairs I’ve known have involved one actor, unassisted.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: One More Drink, and I’m Under the Host

Dorothy Parker? Bennett Cerf? Richard Martin Stern? Playboy’s Party Jokes? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: The famous wit Dorothy Parker had trouble controlling her use of alcohol. According to legend she was asked about her experiences at a party, and she replied:

One more drink and I’d have been under the host!

Parker’s line was a ribald variant of the idiom “drink (someone) under the table”. Parker has also been credited with a more elaborate verse on this topic. Here is an example:

I cannot drink martinis
Only one or two at the most
After three I’m under the table
After four I’m under my host

I am skeptical. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1937 a thematic precursor appeared in a widely distributed gossip column called “In New York” by George Ross. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

At Mario’s Mirador, they were discussing liquor and its effect on the human anatomy. “Two drinks,” declared one, “and I’m under the table.” “That’s nothing,” a rival boasted, “two drinks and the table’s under me.”

In 1944 publisher and raconteur Bennett Cerf released the book “Try and Stop Me” which included a section about Dorothy Parker containing several anecdotes:²

Somebody asked her if she had enjoyed a cocktail party at which she was seen. “Enjoyed it!” she purred. “One more drink and I’d have been under the host!”

At a society dinner she entered the dining room alongside a beautiful and catty lady-playwright. The playwright stepped aside. “Age before beauty,” she said sweetly. “Pearls before swine,” responded Miss Parker, just as sweetly, and sailed in to as hearty a dinner as ever she ate.

Thus, Dorothy Parker was the first person to employ the quip with the phrase “under the host”.

A separate Quote Investigator article about the “pearls before swine” quip is available here.

The first instance of the verse known to QI appeared in 1954 within a section of “Playboy” magazine called “Playboy’s Party Jokes”. The creator was anonymous, and Dorothy Parker was not mentioned:³

Martinis, my girl, are deceiving:
Take two at the very most.
Take three and you’re under the table.
Take four and you’re under the host.

QI believes that Dorothy Parker is the leading candidate for author of the line ascribed to her by Bennett Cerf. QI conjectures that the verse was inspired by the line; however, the creator remains anonymous.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Fame Is Proof That The People Are Gullible

Ralph Waldo Emerson? Elbert Hubbard? Anonymous?

Red carpet symbolizing fame from Unsplash

Question for Quote Investigator: New forms of celebrity have been created in recent years. TikTok and YouTube have produced influencers. Yet, popularity has become remarkably transient. I am reminded of the following harsh comment:

(1) Fame is proof that the people are gullible.
(2) Fame is proof that people are gullible.

This saying has been attributed to nineteenth-century transcendentalist Ralph Waldo Emerson. However, I have not seen a solid citation. Would you please help me uncover evidence?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest match known to QI appeared in 1897 within “The Philistine: A Periodical of Protest” which was edited and largely written by essayist and aphorist Elbert Hubbard. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

“Fame is proof that the people are gullible,” said Emerson. And so a vast fortune is usually proof that the owner has discovered a weakness of humanity and bet on it.

Thus, Elbert Hubbard credited Ralph Waldo Emerson. Yet, researchers have examined the writings and speeches of Emerson and have been unable to locate this statement. So the creator remains anonymous.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: People Have Become the Tools of Their Tools

Henry David Thoreau? Winston Churchill? Marshall McLuhan? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: Automation has been occurring for centuries, but the modern age has taken the trend to new extremes. The culture of humanity has shifted dramatically because of the tools created by technology. Here are two versions of a pertinent adage:

(1) People have become the tools of their tools.
(2) Men have become the tools of their tools.

This saying has been credited to U.S. naturalist and essayist Henry David Thoreau. Also, I think media theorist Marshall McLuhan said something similar. Would you please help me to find a citation?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1854 Henry David Thoreau published “Walden” which included the following passage. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

But lo! men have become the tools of their tools. The man who independently plucked the fruits when he was hungry is become a farmer; and he who stood under a tree for shelter, a housekeeper. We now no longer camp as for a night, but have settled down on earth and forgotten heaven.

Thus, Thoreau was writing about agriculture and domiciles which were two early examples of the influence of technology on culture.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.