Vernor Vinge? Hans Moravec? Irving John Good? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: The creation of entities with superhuman intelligence would mark a new epoch in human history. Systems which outperform humans in tasks such determining 3D protein structures or playing the boardgame Go already exist. But these AI systems display narrow expertise.
The advent of systems with general superhuman capabilities would be earthshattering. Technological growth might accelerate beyond human conception. This transition period has been called the singularity. While contemplating this topic a professor wrote:
Falling into the singularity is admittedly a frightening thing, but now we might regard ourselves as caterpillars who will soon be butterflies.
The professor also wrote:
We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth.
These statements have been attributed to the computer scientist and science fiction author Vernor Vinge. Would you please help me to find citations?
Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1983 Vernor Vinge wrote an opinion piece for “Omni” magazine which included the following passage. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
The evolution of human intelligence took millions of years. We will devise an equivalent advance in a fraction of that time. We will soon create intelligences greater than our own.
When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding.
The final paragraph of Vinge’s 1983 article stated the following:
Falling into the singularity is admittedly a frightening thing, but now we might regard ourselves as caterpillars who will soon be butterflies and, when we look to the stars, take that vast silence as evidence of other races already transformed.
In March 1993 a symposium called “VISION-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace” took place in Westlake, Ohio. Vernor Vinge delivered a paper titled “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era”. Vinge presented a sobering prediction about technological advancement:2
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
The year 2023 occurred thirty years after Vinge’s article appeared. Vinge also discussed the monumental changes he believed would soon engulf humanity:
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Continue reading “Quote Origin: Falling Into the Singularity is Admittedly a Frightening Thing, But Now We Might Regard Ourselves as Caterpillars Who Will Soon Be Butterflies”







