John Maynard Keynes? Bertrand Russell? Herman Kahn? Apocryphal?
Picture of two clock faces from Unsplash
Question for Quote Investigator: The ongoing developments in artificial intelligence and robotics remind me of a remark attributed to the famous English economist John Maynard Keynes. Apparently, he predicted that technological advancements would allow society to adapt a fifteen-hour work week. Would you please help me to find a citation?
Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1930 John Maynard Keynes published an essay titled “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” in “The Nation and Athenaeum”. He predicted a massive increase in the standard of living during the upcoming century due to progress in science and engineering:1
I would predict that the standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be between four and eight times as high as it is to-day.
Keynes believed that society would decrease the length of the average work week in response to these advances. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:2
For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for ourselves than is usual with the rich to-day, only too glad to have small duties and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter—to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible.
Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Eddie Cantor? Hedda Hopper?Milton Berle? Johnny Desmond? Army Archerd? Anonymous?
Picture of the famous Hollywood sign from Unsplash
Question for Quote Investigator: Years of hard work performed in obscurity are usually required before achieving fame. A humorously contradictory saying reflects this viewpoint. Here are three versions:
(1) It took me five years to become an overnight success. (2) It took her ten years to become an overnight sensation. (3) It takes twenty years to make an overnight success
This saying has been attributed to U.S. comedian Eddie Cantor and U.S. newspaper columnist Hedda Hopper. Yet, I have not been able to find a solid citation. Would you please explore the provenance of this remark?
Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest strong match located by QI appeared in the gossip column of Hedda Hopper in November 1945. Hopper specified an anonymous attribution. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
Who was it said Hollywood is the place where it takes five years to become an overnight success?
Hedda Hopper was a significant popularizer of this comical saying, but the creator remains unknown. Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Mark Twain? Will Rogers? Tom Sims? Arthur Godfrey? Anonymous?
Picture of tree-lined pathway from Unsplash
Question for Quote Investigator: You must stay active and alert to have a fulfilling life. Two famous U.S. humorists, Mark Twain and Will Rogers, have been credited with the following remark:
Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.
Yet, I have been unable to find any solid citations pointing to either Twain or Rogers. Would you please explore the provenance of this saying?
Reply from Quote Investigator: QI has found no substantive evidence supporting the attributions to Mark Twain and Will Rogers. The earliest citations which credit them appeared many years after their deaths.
The earliest match found by QI occurred in March 1925 within a syndicated column titled “Tom Sims Says” which was printed in newspapers such as “The Sheboygan Press” of Wisconsin1 and “The Indianapolis Times” of Indiana.2 The column contained miscellaneous jokes and observations. Here were three items. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:
The straight and narrow path is plenty wide for its traffic.
Even if you are on the right track you will get run over if you just sit there.
Love is blind. But there is always some friend who thinks he is an eye doctor.
Based on this evidence QI believes Tom Sims is the most likely creator of this quip.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Søren Kierkegaard? Carl Rogers? John Rowan? Howard Sasportas? Walter Lowrie? Anonymous?
Illustration representing confusion about self-identity from Pixabay
Question for Quote Investigator: Unhappy people often feel compelled to wear a social mask and to live inauthentic lives. Danish theologian and existentialist philosopher Søren Kierkegaard has been credited with the following remark:
The most common form of despair is not being who you are.
I have been unable to find a citation and have become skeptical of this attribution. Would you please explore the provenance of this statement?
Reply from Quote Investigator: QI believes that this statement evolved over time from passages written by Søren Kierkegaard in his 1849 book “Sygdommen til Døden” (“The Sickness unto Death”). An English translation by Walter Lowrie was published in 1941. Kierkegaard discussed despair extensively in the book. The following sentences contained the central idea of the quotation although the expression was somewhat convoluted. Boldface added to excerpt s by QI:1
A despairing man wants despairingly to be himself. But if he despairingly wants to be himself, he will not want to get rid of himself. Yes, so it seems; but if one inspects more closely, one perceives that after all the contradiction is the same. That self which he despairingly wills to be is a self which he is not (for to will to be that self which one truly is, is indeed the opposite of despair); what he really wills is to tear his self away from the Power which constituted it.
The central idea was also expressed in the following passage:2
This form of despair is: in despair at not willing to be oneself; or still lower, in despair at not willing to be a self; or lowest of all, in despair at willing to be another than himself.
In 1956 the influential U.S. psychologist Carl Rogers published an article in the journal “Pastoral Psychology”. Rogers wrote a paraphrase of the viewpoint expressed by Søren Kierkegaard:3
In this connection I have been astonished to find how accurately the Danish philosopher, Soren Kierkegaard, pictured the dilemma of the individual more than a century ago, with keen psychological insight. He points out that the most common despair is to be in despair at not choosing, or willing, to be one’s self; but that the deepest form of despair is to choose “to be another than himself.” On the other hand “to will to be that self which one truly is, is indeed the opposite of despair,” and this choice is the deepest responsibility of man.
This text was further paraphrased to yield the popular modern expression as indicated further below.
Question for Quote Investigator: Several newspapers including “The New York Times”, “The Chicago Tribune”, and “The Orlando Sentinel” have sued OpenAI and Microsoft. The newspapers have claimed that the companies trained their artificial intelligence (AI) systems on millions of copyrighted articles without permission.1
This protectiveness is understandable, but the influential economist Tyler Cowen has expressed a provocative counterpoint. Apparently, Cowen said the following:
You’re an idiot if you’re not writing for the AIs.
Would you please help me to find a citation?
Reply from Quote Investigator: Podcaster Dwarkesh Patel interviewed Professor of Economics Tyler Cowen of George Mason University in October 2024. The video was uploaded to YouTube in January 2025. Patel mentioned that he had used the Claude AI system to help him prepare for the interview. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:2
Dwarkesh Patel: When I was preparing to interview you, I asked Claude to take your persona, and compared to other people I tried this with, it actually works really well with you.
Tyler Cowen: Because I’ve written a lot on the internet.
Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. That’s why.
Tyler Cowen: This is my immortality, right?
Dwarkesh Patel: That’s right.
Thus, Cowen suggested that the processing of written words by an AI system provides a type of enduring cybernetic life. Later in the interview he said the following:3
Tyler Cowen: No one is writing or recording for the AIs very much. But if you believe even a modest version of this progress. Like I’m modest in what I believe relative to you and many of you. You should be doing this. You’re an idiot if you’re not writing for the AIs. They’re a big part of your audience, and their purchasing power, we’ll see but, over time it will accumulate.
In conclusion, Tyler Cowen deserves credit for this quotation which he spoke during an interview with Dwarkesh Patel in October 2024.
Image Notes: Public domain fanciful picture of two robots reading.
2024 April 30, The New York Times (Online), 8 Daily Newspapers Sue OpenAI and Microsoft Over A.I. by Katie Robertson, New York, New York. (ProQuest) link↩︎
YouTube video, Title: Tyler Cowen – The #1 Bottleneck to AI Progress is Humans, Uploaded on January 9, 2025, Uploaded by: Dwarkesh Patel, (Quotation starts at 34 minutes 45 seconds of 60 minutes 33 seconds) (Accessed on youtube.com on January 22, 2025) link↩︎
YouTube video, Title: Tyler Cowen – The #1 Bottleneck to AI Progress is Humans, Uploaded on January 9, 2025, Uploaded by: Dwarkesh Patel, (Quotation starts at 35 minutes 50 seconds of 60 minutes 33 seconds) (Accessed on youtube.com on January 22, 2025) link↩︎
David Lynch? Margaret Atwood?Jacob Riis? Grant E. Hamilton? Wendy Wasserstein? Anonymous?
1908 cartoon by Grant E. Hamilton from Judge magazine
Question for Quote Investigator: The following saying encourages an optimistic focus on what matters in life:
Keep your eye on the doughnut, not the hole.
The influential U.S. movie director David Lynch and the prominent Canadian novelist Margaret Atwood have both employed this expression, but I think it predates them. Would you please explore this topic?
Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1999 “The Toronto Star” published an interview with David Lynch during which he spoke a version of the saying. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
“You have to fall in love and do what you love and then take what comes after that, which you can’t control anyway.
“That way, if things don’t work out after, you at least feel you’ve been true to yourself. Keep your eye on the doughnut, rather than the hole.”
The saying has a long history, and the phrasing has evolved over time. The seed of the expression appeared as a four-line verse titled “Their Points of View” published in “The Sun” newspaper of New York in April 1904:2
’Twixt optimist and pessimist The difference is droll; The optimist the doughnut sees— The pessimist the hole.
In July 1907, journalist and activist Jacob Riis delivered an address before the National Education Association, and he repeated the four-line verse. His commentary included a partial match for the quotation. He used the word “keep”:3
“Keep your eye on the doughnut, and let there be no pessimist in an editorial chair. If I ever find one I shall recommend Roosevelt’s prescription for the useless student: ‘The man ought to have his head knocked off.’
In November 1907, Jacob Riis addressed the students at the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks, North Dakota. He spoke again about doughnuts and holes:4
The speaker averred that he was considerable of an optimist. The pessimist sees only the hole in the center of the doughnut, but the optimist sees the doughnut itself. Keep your eyes on the doughnuts. Keep your eyes on the tangible and there will be plenty of encouragement to go ahead.
In February 1908, the first strong match located by QI appeared in the caption of a one-panel cartoon by Grant E. Hamilton published in “Judge” magazine. The cartoon depicted three human figures and a doughnut. The figures represented Uncle Sam, Capital, and Labor. The caption presented the remark delivered by Uncle Sam to the other two figures:5
DON’T LOOK AT THE HOLE, KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE DOUGHNUT.
The doughnut represented prosperity with the emblazoned phrases “Big Crops” and “Natural Resources”. However, the hole represented gloom with the phrase “Business Depression”.
In March 1908, the cartoon was mentioned in newspapers such as the “Boston Evening Transcript” of Massachusetts:6
Some of the speakers found their text in the cartoon, reproduced from Judge, showing a huge doughnut, with the words: “Don’t look at the hole; keep your eyes on the doughnut.” This cartoon, in colored print, accompanied the bills of fare.
Also in March 1908, the cartoon was reprinted in other journals such as the “The Literary Digest”7 and “Leslie’s Weekly” of New York.8
In June 1908, a close match to the modern saying appeared in an item published in “The Home Missionary” of New York”. The attribution was anonymous:9
A prosperity association is touring the country in the interests of hopefulness in business matters. Their emblem is that most toothsome of New England products, the doughnut, and under the picture is the motto, “Keep your eye on the doughnut, and not on the hole.” — Dr. Richards.
Also in June 1908, “The Daily Missoulian” of Montana printed the following as a filler item:10
Keep your eye on the doughnut; don’t worry about the hole.
In December, the “Daily Kennebec Journal” of Augusta, Maine published an article containing the following version of the saying:11
Keep your eye on the doughnut, never mind the hole.
In May 1924, “The Pearl City News” of Illinois printed the following verse:12
As you ramble on thru life, Brother. Whatever be your goal. Keep your eye upon the doughnut. And not upon the hole.
In 1959, the “Wheeling Herald” of Illinois printed the following close match using “one’s” instead of “your”:13
The trite comment about it being a wise goal to keep one’s eye on the donut and not on the hole is proving especially true …
In 1974, the “Encyclopedia of Graffiti” contained the following item:14
OPTIMISM
As you ramble on through life, brother Whatever be your goal Keep your eye on the doughnut Not upon the hole.
(Men’s room, Market Diner, New York City—a traditional wall inscription)
In 1996, an entry in “The International Thesaurus of Quotations” credited a U.S. playwright with a variant:15
As I ramble through life, whatever be my goal, I will unfortunately always keep my eye upon the doughnut and not upon the whole. WENDY WASSERSTEIN, “To Live and Diet,” Bachelor Girls (1990)
In November 1999, “The Toronto Star” of Canada printed an interview with David Lynch during which he used the expression as mentioned at the beginning of this article:16
“That way, if things don’t work out after, you at least feel you’ve been true to yourself. Keep your eye on the doughnut, rather than the hole.”
In December 1999, a journalist with the “Evening Standard” of London, England spoke to David Lynch and reported the following comment from the auteur:17
“There’s the doughnut and there is the hole and you have got to keep your eye on the doughnut and not the hole. There are so many things that happen outside the film-making process that are not under your control. And they do funny things to you and can interrupt the mechanism”.
In 2000 Margaret Atwood published the novel “The Blind Assassin”, and she included an instance of the 1924 four-line verse:18
What came back to me then was the sign that used to be in the window of the Downyflake Doughnut stand, at the Sunnyside Amusement Park, in — what was it? – the summer of 1935:
As you ramble on through life. Brother, Whatever be your goal, Keep your eye upon the doughnut. And not upon the hole.
A paradox, the doughnut hole. Empty space, once, but now they’ve learned to market even that.
In 2001, the “Daily News” attributed the saying to Lynch:19
David Lynch has a favorite expression — words to live by, if you will — that he delivers with complete sincerity: “Keep your eye on the doughnut and not on the hole.” The hole is all the distractions that come from being David Lynch, the director …
In conclusion, this saying evolved over time. In April 1904, the seed of the expression appeared in a four-line verse published in “The Sun” newspaper. In February 1908, a match appeared in the caption of a cartoon by Grant E. Hamilton published in “Judge” magazine. In June 1908, a close match to the modern saying appeared in “The Home Missionary”.
Image Notes: Reprint of the doughnut cartoon by Grant E. Hamilton from “The Literary Digest” on March 7, 1908. The original cartoon appeared in “Judge” magazine on February 22, 1908. The available scan from “The Literary Digest” was more legible than the scan from “Judge”.
Acknowledgement: Great thanks to Edward Banatt whose inquiry led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Also, thanks to “The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs” compiled by Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro which contains an entry for this saying. The first citation was the June 1908 issue of “The Home Missionary”. In addition, thanks to researcher Barry Popik who has a webpage about “‘Keep Your Eye Upon the Donut’ (Optimist’s Creed)” which lists the 1904 citation in “The Sun” together with an August 14, 1924 citation for the four-line verse and other helpful citations.
1999 November 27, The Saturday Star (The Toronto Star), Director’s really mild at heart by Peter Howell (Movie Critic), Quote Page J3, Column 1, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1904 April 15, The Sun, Their Points of View, Quote Page 6, Column 5, New York, New York. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1907 July 24, The Redwood Gazette, Jacob Riis, Optimist, Quote Page 2, Column 3, Redwood Falls, Minnesota. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1907 November 7, The Grand Forks Daily Herald, Jacob Riis At The University, Quote Page 6, Column 3, Grand Forks, North Dakota. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1908 February 22, Judge, Volume 54, Number 1375, Cartoon by Grant E. Hamilton, Caption: Don’t Look At the Hole, Keep Your Eye On the Doughnut, Quote Page 7 and 8, Judge Company, New York. (Internet Archive Full View) link↩︎
1908 March 4, Boston Evening Transcript, Dinner Was Well Planned, Quote Page 5, Column 6, Boston, Massachusetts. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1908 March 7, The Literary Digest, Topics In Brief, Cartoon by Grant E. Hamilton, Caption: Don’t Look At the Hole, Keep Your Eye On the Doughnut, Cartoon reprinted from Judge magazine, Quote Page 326, Funk & Wagnalls Company, New York. (Google Books Gull View) link↩︎
1908 March 19, Leslie’s Weekly, Speakers and a Cartoon That Stirred Boston Banqueters, Quote Page 272, Published by The Judge Company, New York. (Google Books Full View) link↩︎
1908 June, The Home Missionary, Volume 82, Number 3, Splinters from Speeches, Quote Page 472, Column 1, Congregational Home Missionary Society, New York. (Internet Archive Full View) link↩︎
1908 June 7, The Daily Missoulian, (Filler item), Quote Page 6, Column 3, Missoula, Montana. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1921 December 22, Daily Kennebec Journal, The Hole Or the Doughnut?, Quote Page 6, Column 2, Augusta, Maine. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1924 May 8, The Pearl City News, General News, Quote Page 1, Column 4, Pearl City, Illinois. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1959 December 24, Wheeling Herald, Long Grove Residents Plan Candlelight Carol Service by Emma Keiler, Quote Page 6, Column 4 and 5, Wheeling, Illinois. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1980 (Copyright 1974), Encyclopedia of Graffiti, Collected by Robert Reisner and Lorraine Wechsler, Section: Optimism, Quote Page 258, (Reprint of 1974 edition from Macmillan, New York), Galahad Books, New York. (Verified on paper) ↩︎
1996, The International Thesaurus of Quotations, Compiled by Eugene Ehrlich and Marshall DeBruhl, (Revised and Updated), Topic: Eating, Quote Page 180, Column 2, HarperResource: HarperCollins, New York. (Verified on paper) ↩︎
1999 November 27, The Saturday Star (The Toronto Star), Director’s really mild at heart by Peter Howell (Movie Critic), Quote Page J3, Column 1, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
1999 December 1, Evening Standard, Wizard of Weird: Interview of David Lynch by Andrew Billen, (Continuation title: ‘You’ve got to keep your eye on the doughnut, not the hole’), Start Page 29, Quote Page 30, Column 4, London, England. (Newspapers_com) ↩︎
2000, The Blind Assassin by Margaret Atwood, Chapter: The eggshell hat, Quote Page 310, Nan A. Talese: An Imprint of Doubleday: A Division of Random House, New York. (Verified with scans) ↩︎
2001 October 7, Daily News, The view from ‘Mulholland Drive’, Section: Showtime, Quote Page 4, Column 1, New York, New York. (Newspapers_com) link↩︎
Question for Quote Investigator: Children are independent beings who cannot be rigidly controlled by the expectations and desires of parents. Children need unconditional love. The prominent Chilean-American writer Isabel Allende once made this point while comparing children with trees. Would you please help me to find a citation?
Reply from Quote Investigator: In 2008 Isabel Allende published the memoir “La Suma de Los Días” (“The Sum of Our Days”) which contained the following passage. Translated from the Spanish by Margaret Sayers Peden. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
In passing, I gave her a bit of advice that had I put in practice myself would have saved a fortune in therapists: Accept the children the way we accept trees—with gratitude, because they are a blessing—but do not have expectations or desires. You don’t expect trees to change, you love them as they are.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Alex Blechman? Ray Bradbury? Neal Stephenson? Mark Zuckerberg? Abe Murray? Anonymous?
Depiction of a mysterious crystal sphere from Unsplash.
Question for Quote Investigator: Science fiction is filled with cautionary fables and dystopian visions such as the murderous HAL 9000 computer of the movie “2001”, the relentless T-800 robot of the movie “The Terminator”, the disorienting cyberspace of the short story “Burning Chrome” by William Gibson, and the frenetic metaverse of the book “Snow Crash” by Neal Stephenson. Oddly, the current generation of technologists seem intent on bringing these visions to life.
Apparently, a humorist once described a joyful technologist who was celebrating the creation of the “Torment Nexus” even though the “Torment Nexus” was originally the frightening subject of an alarming science fiction story. Would you please help me to find a citation?
Reply from Quote Investigator: On November 28, 2021 writer Alex Blechman transmitted the following acerbic tweet. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
Sci-Fi Author: In my book I invented the Torment Nexus as a cautionary tale
Tech Company: At long last, we have created the Torment Nexus from classic sci-fi novel Don’t Create The Torment Nexus
Alex Blechman’s profile on X-twitter stated the following as of January 2025:2
Writer, game designer x Staff Writer @TheOnion & @ClickHole Stuff for Jackbox Games, High On Life, Starship Troopers: TC, Saints Row, other places
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Mark Twain? James Ross Clemens?Lowell Gleason? Roger Durrett? Apocryphal? Anonymous?
Picture of a box of cigars from Unsplash
Question for Quote Investigator: Mark Twain enjoyed smoking cigars. The following three closely related quips have been attributed to the famed humorist:
(1) If I cannot smoke in heaven, I shall not go there. (2) If there are no cigars in heaven, I shall not go. (3) If there is smoking in heaven, I want to go there.
I have not been able to find a solid citation. Would you please explore whether Twain employed any of these remarks?
Reply from Quote Investigator: Mark Twain died in 1910. In 1929 James Ross Clemens who was Twain’s cousin published “Some Reminiscences of Mark Twain” in the “Overland Monthly” of San Francisco, California. The following passage discussed Twain’s writing habits and credited him with an instance of the quip. Boldface added to excepts by QI:1
When bedtime overtook him at his desk working on a story he would leave the last sentence unfinished so as to preserve the continuity of thought when work was begun again the following morning. Three thousand words he considered a full day’s work.
His favorite nightmare he declared was being forbidden by his doctor to smoke. Dr. Sam Johnson used to say that he could not visualize the state of being dead because he could not imagine himself in a state where he would not receive letters and Mark was in much the same frame of mind as regards cigars. “If there is smoking in Heaven I want to go there,” he would fervidly exclaim.
Thus, there is substantive evidence that Mark Twain used the third expression listed above, but QI has not yet found substantive evidence that Twain used the first or second expressions. On the other hand, all three statements are semantically similar; hence, it is possible that he used more than one.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Question for Quote Investigator: Distinguishing between true friends and fair-weather friends can be difficult. A former U.S. president stated that he cherished most those who remained friends when he was facing adversity. They relieved the gloom of his darkest hours.
Apparently, Ulysses S. Grant said something like this. Would you please help me to find the correct phrasing together with a citation?
Reply from Quote Investigator: In January 1869 several newspapers reported comments made by Ulysses S. Grant to a journalist of “The World” in New York. Grant was asked his opinion of Elihu B. Washburne. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
Washburne was my friend when I needed friends—when it was no advantage to be my friend, and when I had very few friends anywhere—scarcely any outside of the army. My friends are very numerous now. I often wonder how many of them would remain my friends if my position and patronage were taken away from me.
The friends of my adversity I shall always cherish most. I can better trust those who helped to relieve the gloom of my dark hours than those who are so ready to enjoy with me the sunshine of my prosperity. The newspapers cannot alienate me from Washburne by any abuse of him or ridicule of his supposed influence with and over me.
Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.
