Winston Churchill? Paul S. Nadler? Apocryphal?
Question for Quote Investigator: I heard this story many years ago at an economics convention. I’ve contacted the Churchill Archive and a couple of renowned Churchill scholars, and so far the answer seems to be “apocryphal,” as with so many great quotes attributed to the Great Quote Magnet. But it does fit his character. Here goes:
As Chancellor of the Exchequer in the mid-1920s, Churchill asked his chief economist what would be required to produce a good estimate of the total cost of World War I to Britain. The economist replied that it would take ten years by the best means available, whereupon Churchill promised his answer to the Prime Minister that same day. He explained: “If I give him my best guess this afternoon, it will take ten years for anyone to prove me wrong.”
Can you uncover something about this anecdote?
Reply from Quote Investigator: QI has found a few examples of stories that fit this general template. The earliest was published in Coronet magazine in 1945 and Winston Churchill was the primary character. However, the setting was World War 2 and not World War 1:1
During the early days of his prime ministership, Winston Churchill’s war expenditures aroused an opposition member of Parliament to demand a strict accounting of the vast sums involved. Well aware that such an accounting would be almost impossible to make within the time set, the MP sat back to wait for the fiasco. Churchill, however, blandly promised to have the figures ready the very next day, and true to his word he did. At any rate, he read off a series of figures that ran into 103,429,009 pounds, eight shillings and sixpence. The opposition was promptly silenced.
The session over, a friend asked Churchill how he had worked the miracle. “Quite simple,” Churchill confessed. “I made those figures up as I went along. It will take the opposition at least three months and a score of clerks to prove me wrong—if they care to try it!
Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.
Continue reading “Anecdote Origin: It Will Take Them Ten Years to Prove Me Wrong”