Benjamin Franklin? Mark Twain? Christopher Bullock? Edward Ward? Daniel Defoe? Joseph Reed? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: Grumbling about paying taxes is nearly universal. Here are four versions of a pertinent saying:
- Nothing is certain except for death and taxes.
- Nothing stands fixed, but death and taxes.
- Nothing can be depended on but taxes and death.
- It’s impossible to be sure of anything but death and taxes.
The U.S. statesman Benjamin Franklin and the humorist Mark Twain have received credit for this remark. Would you please explore this topic?
Reply from Quote Investigator: Benjamin Franklin did employ this saying within a letter dated November 13, 1789 which he wrote to the French physicist Jean Baptiste Le Roy. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1
Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.
Many years before Franklin’s usage, the expression appeared in a farce titled “The Cobler of Preston” by Christopher Bullock which premiered and was published in 1716. The word “cobbler” was spelled “cobler”, and the word “lie” was spelled “lye”. The quip was spoken by a character named Toby Guzzle who was described as “a drunken Cobler”:2
You lye, you are not sure; for I say, Woman, ’tis impossible to be sure of any thing but Death and Taxes—therefore hold your Tongue, or you shall both be soundly whipt . . .
Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.
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