Quote Origin: Statistics Are No Substitution for Judgment

Henry Clay Sr.? Henry Clay? Sar A. Levitan? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: This is the era of big data, and organizations are performing myriad statistical calculations; however, this surfeit of numbers can be misleading. Thoughtful discernment is required to see beyond current information as suggested by the following adage:

Statistics are no substitute for judgement.

This saying has been credited to Henry Clay Sr., a prominent Kentucky politician who served in the U.S. House and Senate. Yet, I am skeptical of this ascription because he died in 1852, and I have only found citations starting in the 1900s. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Over the years many different people shared the name Henry Clay. One mechanism that produces misquotations is the confusion of names. An ascription can jump from one person to another who shares a similar name.

The earliest match for this saying located by QI appeared in 1930 within the pages of the “Evening Sentinel” of Staffordshire, England which reported on a speech delivered to a business group by a Professor of Economics named Henry Clay who was an adviser to the Bank of England. This initial version used the word “substitution”. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

The difference between a successful and an unsuccessful business man lies often in the greater accuracy of the former’s guesses. Statistics are no substitution for judgment. Their use is to check and discipline the judgments on which in the last resort business decisions depend.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: Statistics Are No Substitution for Judgment”

Quote Origin: Wear a Smile and Have Friends; Wear a Scowl and Have Wrinkles

George Eliot? Mary Ann Evans? F. O. Hamilton? Lillie Langtry? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: The following adage encourages sociability and the projection of happiness:

Wear a smile and have friends; wear a scowl and have wrinkles.

This statement has been credited to George Eliot, a popular Victorian era novelist whose real name was Mary Ann Evans. I am skeptical of this ascription because I have been unable to find a solid citation. What do you think?

Reply from Quote Investigator: QI has found no substantive evidence that George Eliot who died in 1880 spoke or wrote this quotation. The earliest close match located by QI appeared in a 1938 article about friendship by F. O. Hamilton. The statement was adjacent to a remark attributed to George Eliot. Shortly afterward the two statements from the essay were quoted together, and both were mistakenly attributed to Eliot. The details are given further below.

The notion that smiling will help a person to gain friends has a long history. In 1871 a newspaper in Yorkville, South Carolina printed the following. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

It is just as easy to smile as it is to frown. A smile will make you friends, and a frown will make you enemies.

The above statement partially matched the quotation, but it referred to frowning instead of scowling.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: Wear a Smile and Have Friends; Wear a Scowl and Have Wrinkles”

Quote Origin: What Do We Live For, If It Is Not To Make Life Less Difficult To Each Other?

George Eliot? Mary Ann Evans? F. O. Hamilton? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: George Eliot was a prominent English novelist of the Victorian era. The author’s real name was Mary Ann Evans. The following remark has been ascribed to her:

What do we live for if not to make the world less difficult for each other?

I am having trouble locating this statement within her oeuvre. Would you please help?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The quotation can be found in Eliot’s novel “Middlemarch: A Study of Provincial Life”. Volume four of the work appeared in 1872. The correct phrasing differed from the version specified by the questioner. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

“Mr Lydgate would understand that if his friends hear a calumny about him their first wish must be to justify him. What do we live for, if it is not to make life less difficult to each other? I cannot be indifferent to the troubles of a man who advised me in my trouble, and attended me in my illness.”

The quotation included the additional words “it is”. The word “life” occurred instead of “world”, and the preposition “to” occurred instead of “for”.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: What Do We Live For, If It Is Not To Make Life Less Difficult To Each Other?”

Quote Origin: A Man Who Is His Own Lawyer Has a Fool for a Client

Abraham Lincoln? William De Britaine? Roger L’Estrange? Italian Proverb? Benjamin Franklin? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: Evaluating complex legal issues requires expertise. Abraham Lincoln reportedly employed the following adage. Here are two versions:

  • If you are your own lawyer you have a fool for a client.
  • He who represents himself has a fool for a client.

Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest partial match known to QI appeared in the 1682 book “Humane Prudence, or, The Art by which a Man May Raise Himself and Fortune to Grandeur” by William De Britaine. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

Before you act, it’s Prudence soberly to consider; for after Action you cannot recede without dishonour: Take the Advice of some Prudent Friend; for he who will be his own Counsellour, shall be sure to have a Fool for his Client.

This adage is ambiguous because the term “counselor” has more than one pertinent meaning. A counselor is a person who gives counsel, i.e., an adviser. Alternatively, a counsellor is an attorney, especially one who pleads cases in court. The context suggests to QI that the first interpretation is the most likely.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: A Man Who Is His Own Lawyer Has a Fool for a Client”

Quote Origin: He Who Acts as His Own Doctor Has a Fool for a Patient

Roger L’Estrange? William Grant? John Bristed? William J. Flagg? William Osler? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: A person with a serious malady should be very cautious about treating himself or herself. This holds true even if the person is a physician. Here are some versions of a pertinent adage:

  • He who treats himself has a fool for a patient.
  • A physician who treats himself has a fool for a patient.
  • The person who is his own doctor has a simpleton for a patient.

Would you please explore the provenance of this saying?

Reply from Quote Investigator: A precursor appeared in a 1692 collection of fables translated into English by Sir Roger L’Estrange. In one fable a wealthy Dutchman rejects the advice of his physicians. The section containing the moral of the fable presents an adage about teachers which is generalized to apply to doctors. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

The MORAL
He that Consults his Physician, and will not Follow his Advice, must be his Own Doctor: But let him take the Old Adage along with him. He that Teaches Himself has a Fool to his Master.

In 1781 a medical book written for doctors by William Grant included a discussion of gout. Grant presented a version of the adage:2

The last common cause of irregularity in the gout, is a complication with other diseases; of which I have given some examples in the first Chapter of this Essay. These always require the assistance of a skilful person; in such cases no man ought to be his own physician, for fear of having a fool for his patient.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: He Who Acts as His Own Doctor Has a Fool for a Patient”

Quote Origin: You Will Continue To Suffer If You Have an Emotional Reaction To Everything

Warren Buffett? Bruce Lee? Cindy Flores? Sylvester McNutt III? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: A paragraph of advice about maintaining equanimity is popular on social media. Here is the first sentence:

You will continue to suffer if you have an emotional reaction to everything that is said to you.

These words have been attributed to the influential martial artist Bruce Lee and the famous investor Warren Buffett. What do you think?

Reply from Quote Investigator: QI has found no substantive evidence that this passage has been spoken or written by Bruce Lee or Warren Buffett. It is very difficult to trace because it has been shared via several social media platforms. The search engines for social media platforms are typically defective or non-existent. In addition, messages are sometimes undated.

The earliest match (with a solid date) located by QI appeared in two tweets from Cindy Flores:

Twitter handle: @cfloorrrr link
Timestamp: 12:56 AM · Mar 24, 2016
You will continue to suffer if you have an emotional reaction to everything that is said to you, true power is observing everything w logic

Twitter handle: @cfloorrrr link
Timestamp: 12:57 AM · Mar 24, 2016
@cfloorrrr true power is restraint. If words control you that means everyone else can control you, breathe and allow things to pass.

The tweets did not attribute the remark to anyone; hence, Cindy Flores might be the creator. Yet, it is possible that the words were relayed from an earlier message on social media. Based on current evidence QI would label the text anonymous.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: You Will Continue To Suffer If You Have an Emotional Reaction To Everything”

Quote Origin: Television Is Called a Medium Because It’s Never Well Done

Groucho Marx? Fred Waring? Ed Gardner? Goodman Ace? Jane Ace? Fred Allen? Ernie Kovacs? Deane Binder? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: The number of scripted television shows has grown dramatically in recent years and so have the plaudits. Yet, from its earliest days the medium has always attracted scorn. Here are three examples of lacerating word play:

  • Television is a medium where if anything is well done, it’s rare.
  • Television: We call it a medium because nothing’s well done.
  • Television is called a medium because it is neither rare nor well done.

Would you please explore the provenance of this humor?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest match known to QI occurred in the “Chicago Sunday Tribune” of Illinois in May 1949. A concise definition of television appeared in a small box. The singer and show business personality Fred Waring received credit for the wordplay. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

Definition
“Television: A new medium—rare, if well done!”
-Fred Waring.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: Television Is Called a Medium Because It’s Never Well Done”

Quote Origin: Honesty Is the 1st Chapter in the Book of Wisdom

Thomas Jefferson? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: A large number of the quotations attributed to Thomas Jefferson are apocryphal; hence, I have learned to be cautious. Do you know whether the following remark is from the pen of Jefferson?

Honesty is the first chapter of the book wisdom.

Any help would be appreciated.

Reply from Quote Investigator: Thomas Jefferson sent a two page letter to Nathaniel Macon on January 12, 1819. The saying about honesty appeared on the second page. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

Whether the succeeding generation is to be more virtuous than their predecessors, I cannot say; but I am sure they will have more worldly wisdom, and enough, I hope, to know that honesty is the 1st chapter in the book of wisdom.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: Honesty Is the 1st Chapter in the Book of Wisdom”

Quote Origin: There Is No Safety In Numbers, Or In Anything Else

James Thurber? Jane Austen? Charles Caleb Colton? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: Many are familiar with the following adage which encourages aggregation:

There is safety in numbers.

Yet, I recall reading a short acerbic tale that presented an inverted moral of this type:

There is no safety in numbers, or anything else.

Would you please help me to find this story?

Reply from Quote Investigator: In 1939 “The New Yorker” published a set of four short tales by humorist James Thurber under the title “Fables for Our Time – II”. The first story was about a “fairly intelligent fly” who avoided being caught in an empty spider web. Unfortunately, when the fly later encountered a large group of flies together on a surface he decided to settle down among them. A bee warned the fly that the group were trapped on flypaper. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

“Don’t be silly,” said the fly, “they’re dancing.” So he settled down and became stuck to the flypaper with all the other flies.

Moral: There is no safety in numbers, or in anything else.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: There Is No Safety In Numbers, Or In Anything Else”

Quote Origin: It Is Quite As Important To Know What Kind of a Patient the Disease Has Got As To Know What Kind of a Disease the Patient Has Got

William Osler? Caleb Hillier Parry? Henry George Plimmer? Woods Hutchinson? Walter Moxon? Albert Abrams? Hippocrates? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: In medicine it is crucial to identify the disease that afflicts the patient, but that is only one part of the full assessment. Determining the best treatment requires a careful examination of the history and the behavior of the patient. Here is a germane adage:

It is more important to know what kind of a patient has the disease than what kind of a disease the patient has.

This saying has been attributed to several famous medical educators including William Osler and Caleb Hillier Parry. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: A precursor adage emphasizing the need to focus on the patient was circulating in 1846 when it appeared in “The Lancet” with an anonymous attribution. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:1

Dr. Golding Bird agreed in an observation that had fallen from a speaker at the last meeting, that, in the practice of medicine, the great point was to treat the patient, and not the disease.

In 1894 a different precursor appeared in the book “A System of Genito-Urinary Diseases, Syphilology and Dermatology”. Professor Andrew R. Robinson was the author of a section containing the following passage which highlighted the need to understand the patient:2

Why is it that one case of scarlatina or pneumonia or smallpox is severe and even fatal, and another mild? The organism is always a definite and similar one, even if it varies in virulent powers at different periods of an epidemic; consequently it is not a question of the kind of disease (or organism) the patient has, but rather the kind of patient the disease has attacked, and an appreciation of this fact gives the best results in treatment.

In 1899 Henry George Plimmer who was a Lecturer on Pathology and Bacteriology at St Mary’s Hospital Medical School delivered a short address that was recorded in “St. Mary’s Hospital Gazette”. The following excerpt contains the earliest strong match for the adage known to QI:3

You will have to acquire, too, for any success to be given you, an accurate knowledge of human nature, and you will find that it is quite as important for the doctor to know what kind of patient the disease has for host, as to know what sort of disease the patient has for guest.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: It Is Quite As Important To Know What Kind of a Patient the Disease Has Got As To Know What Kind of a Disease the Patient Has Got”