Quote Investigator® – Page 191

Quote Origin: It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future

Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? K. K. Steincke? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous?

Detail of 1902 painting “The Crystal Ball” by John William Waterhouse.

Question for Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Here are five examples:

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
It’s dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
Never make forecasts, especially about the future.

Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Would you please tell me who I should credit?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest evidence known to QI appeared in the fourth volume titled “Farvel Og Tak” (“Goodbye and Thanks”) which was released in 1948. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. The saying appeared in a section with this title:

Og saa til Slut et Par parlamentariske Sprogblomster

And finally a couple of parliamentary howlers

The saying was spoken during the parliamentary year 1937-1938, and no attribution was specified. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:¹

Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”.² More information about Danish citations for this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article.

The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A”. This early citation³ and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke:⁴

Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future.

In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable:⁵

“Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: History Does Not Repeat Itself. The Historians Repeat One Another

Max Beerbohm? Rupert Brooke? Philip Guedalla? Oscar Wilde? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: I have heard two distinct, humorous, and antithetical sayings about the composition of history:

1) History repeats itself, and the historians repeat each other
2) History does not repeat itself. The historians repeat each other.

Statements of this type have been attributed to two famously witty individuals: Oscar Wilde and Max Beerbohm. Would you please explore this topic?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest evidence located by QI was printed in an article from 1868 in the Louisville Journal which was reprinted by newspapers in Atlanta, Georgia¹ and Charleston, South Carolina.² The phrasing was somewhat different, but the meaning matched the first expression listed above. The unnamed author was greatly impressed by the number and diversity of books that had already been published and wondered what type of book might appear in the future. Boldface has been added to excerpts:

For taking into account the vast library of standard history, philosophy, fiction, poetry, which the genius of every language, ancient and modern, has furnished us, what else remains to be written? History will, of course, go on repeating itself, and the historians repeating each other.

In 1896 the illustrator and humorist Max Beerbohm wrote an essay titled “1880”. Some confusion is inevitable when a year is used as a title, so please note that the essay was written 16 years after 1880. Beerbohm employed the second expression listed above, but he did not claim coinage. The phrase “it has been said” indicated that the saying was already in circulation:³

“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.” Now, there are still some periods with which no historian has grappled, and, strangely enough, the period that most greatly fascinates me is one of them.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: It Is the Best Play I Ever Slept Through

Oscar Wilde? Myron W. Reed? Will Rogers? Charlie Carter?

Question for Quote Investigator: Several weeks ago I saw an article with the following humorous title:

Why Arianna’s Talk Was the Best I’ve Ever Slept Through

The piece was actually a very positive assessment and summary of a talk delivered by Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post.¹

I was reminded of a one-line critique of a drama attributed to Oscar Wilde:

It is the best play I ever slept through.

Is this really one of Wilde’s witticisms?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Oscar Wilde died in 1900, and the earliest ascription to Wilde located by QI was published in 1911. The prominent actor and producer Seymour Hicks knew Wilde and socialized with him. The memoir he published reported several remarks credited to Wilde. Boldface has been added to excerpts below:²

Innumerable are the witticisms laid at his door. What could be more delightful than his remark to the gushing female admirer who, shaking him warmly by the hand, said: “Oh, but Mr. Wilde, you don’t remember me. My name is Smith.” “Oh yes,” said Wilde, “I remember your name perfectly—but I can’t think of your face.”

It was Wilde who, on being asked on returning from a fashionable premiere how he liked the piece, replied: “My dear friend, it is the best play I ever slept through.”

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Never Answer an Anonymous Letter

Yogi Berra? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: Would you please explore another Yogiism? The following comical remark is attributed to the celebrated baseball player:

Never answer an anonymous letter.

If the letter contains no information about the sender then, of course, it is impossible to reply. That is the humorous interpretation. But Yogi Berra once noted that a letter may have a return address without providing a name.

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest evidence of a version of this quip located by QI was printed in 1876. The ascription to Yogi of the modern saying is uncertain. Detailed citations are given further below.

It is possible to reply to an anonymous letter sometimes. For example, an anonymous letter can be sent to a magazine, and the periodical can publish the letter together with a response. In 1770 an exchange of letters was published in “The Monthly Review” of London. One anonymous letter writer accused another writer of being overly personal. The journal published a response:¹

When, says he, I answer an anonymous letter, and make not the most distant allusion to any thing but what appears upon the face of it, where can be the personality?

In 1838 “Mechanics’ Magazine: Museum, Register, Journal, and Gazette” published an anonymous critical letter signed with a nom de plume. The journal also printed a response from the person who was criticized:²

It has been a rule with me never to answer an anonymous letter, but the classic pen of the reverend gentleman who signs himself “An Amateur Mechanic,” is as well known to me as if he had appeared in his proper person.

In 1873 a book titled “Analysis of Letter-Writing: With a Large Number of Examples of Model Business Letters” was released. The volume included the following two guidelines for proper business correspondence. No humor was intended:³

All business letters should be carefully kept, until, at least, the matters to which they relate are completely closed, and there can be no further use for them.

You should never condescend to answer an anonymous letter, even if you are nearly certain who wrote it. Never write one.

By 1876 the comical potential of the line was recognized. A newspaper in Orange City, Iowa printed a collection of funny remarks under the article title “Nubbins of Humor” including these three items:⁴

Intoxicating music—“Ale to the chief.”

It is a wise thing never to answer an anonymous letter until you have found out who wrote it.

“How long will my chop be, waiter?” asked a hungry man in a restaurant, “About five inches, sir.” was the prompt reply.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: The Question Isn’t Who Is Going to Let Me, It’s Who Is Going to Stop Me

Ayn Rand? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: The Newsfeed section of the Time magazine website recently wrote about a successful fashion retailer which was selling a shirt called an “Unstoppable Muscle Tee” that displayed a quotation attributed to a top-selling author and controversial philosopher:

“The question isn’t who is going to let me, it’s who is going to stop me.” — Ayn Rand

The Time scribe seemed to disapprove of the garment. My reaction was: Are these really the words of Ayn Rand? I have searched for them and cannot find them in any of her novels or essays?

Reply from Quote Investigator: QI has been unable to find this precise quotation in the writings of Ayn Rand. However, QI hypothesizes that the sentence was derived from a dialog in her best-selling 1943 novel “The Fountainhead”.

Ayn Rand’s main character, Howard Roark, attended a school called The Stanton Institute of Technology to learn about architecture. He refused to follow the design precepts that he considered anachronistic and wrong-headed, and he was expelled from the school for insubordination.

Roark’s modernistic designs of glass and concrete shocked many of the teachers in the Institute. Roark and the Dean of the school met for a final discussion before he left the campus. In the excerpt below the Dean delivered the first line and then the speaker alternated:¹

“Do you mean to tell me that you’re thinking seriously of building that way, when and if you are an architect?”

“Yes.”

“My dear fellow, who will let you?”

“That’s not the point. The point is, who will stop me?”

“Look here, this is serious. I am sorry that I haven’t had a long, earnest talk with you much earlier…. I know, I know, I know, don’t interrupt me, you’ve seen a modernistic building or two, and it gave you ideas. But do you realize what a passing fancy that whole so-called modern movement is?”

QI conjectures that the third and fourth lines above were altered and combined to generate a single sentence, and this sentence was directly assigned to Ayn Rand. The process may have occurred via multiple intermediary steps.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: I Understand It Brings You Luck, Whether You Believe in It or Not

Niels Bohr? Albert Einstein? Carl Alfred Meier? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: There is popular anecdote about a journalist or friend who visited the home of a prominent physicist. The visitor was surprised to find a horseshoe above the front doorway of the scientist’s abode. Tradition asserts that a horseshoe acts as a talisman of luck when placed over a door.

The visitor asked the physicist about the purpose of the horseshoe while expressing incredulity that a man of science could possibly be swayed by a simple-minded folk belief. The physicist replied:

Of course I don’t believe in it, but I understand it brings you luck, whether you believe in it or not.

This slyly comical remark has been attributed to both Niels Bohr and Albert Einstein. I love this entertaining tale, but I am skeptical. Any insights?

Reply from Quote Investigator: The earliest match known to QI appeared in “Svenska Dagbladet” (“The Swedish Daily News”) in January 1956. The scientist was identified as Niels Bohr. Boldface added to excepts by QI:¹

Det påstås att den frejdade atomforskaren Niels Bohr nyligen fick besök av en nyfiken amerikan.

— Professorn har en hästsko ovanför dörren, sa han, Tror professorn på skrock?

— Naturligtvis inte. Men jag har hört sägas att en hästsko kan bringa tur även ät folk som inte är vidskepliga . . .

Here is one possible translation into English:

It is alleged that the celebrated nuclear scientist Niels Bohr was recently visited by a curious American.

— “The professor has a horseshoe above the door,” he said. “Does the professor believe in superstition?”

— “Of course not. But I have heard it said that a horseshoe can bring good luck even to people who are not superstitious” . . .

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again

Yogi Berra? Jim Prior? Clifford Terry? John Anders? Tish Baldrige? Anonymous? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: Déjà vu is the eerie and intense sensation that something you are experiencing has happened before. This feeling is often illusory because the event being experienced is genuinely novel. The term déjà vu can also be used to simply reference an event or circumstance that has happened many times before.

Yogi Berra is famous for his magnificent baseball skills and for his comical statements known as Yogiisms. Here are two humorously redundant or exaggerated phrases containing “déjà vu”. The second is usually attributed to Yogi:

It’s déjà vu again.
It’s déjà vu all over again.

I have been unable to find a solid citation ascribing this sentence to Yogi, and I know some Yogiisms are misquotations. What do you think?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Analysis of this quotation is complicated by the conflicting testimony provided by Yogi Berra. In 1987 the New York Times language columnist William Safire spoke to Berra by phone, and Berra denied that the phrase was his. However, by 1998 Berra had embraced the quotation, and he presented a scenario circa 1961 in which he made the remark during a baseball game. Of course, it is unfair to demand from a person perfect memory for all utterances. The details for these citations are given further below.

The earliest evidence located by QI was printed in a Florida newspaper in 1962. A humorous love poem titled “Thanks To You” by Jim Prior used the expression in the first line of the first verse. The poem was composed of six verses, and these were the first two:¹

It’s Deja Vu again
Out of the blue again
Truer than true again
Thanks to you.

It’s homerun time again
Rhymes seem to rhyme again
My chimes can chime again
Thanks to you.

The jocular tone suggests to QI that the author knew the phrase was pleonastic. Semantically, he could have said “It’s Déjà vu”, but the longer phrase fit the rhythm and rhyme scheme.

The more elaborate statement: “It’s déjà vu all over again” appeared in a movie review in the Chicago Tribune in 1966. The singer and comedian Dean Martin starred in a vehicle called “The Silencers” which spoofed the secret-super-spy genre popularized by James Bond extravaganzas. The reviewer was not impressed by the fancy gizmos and the provocative women featured on screen:²

It’s déjà vu all over again—the usual gaggle of gimmicks [miniature hand grenades disguised as coat buttons, a gun that shoots backwards], and the familiar covey of quail [Stella Stevens, Daliah Lavi, Cyd Charisse, Beverly Adams] that frequently makes the put-on more of a take-off.

This is the earliest known citation for the most common modern version of the saying, and it is listed in the Yale Book of Quotations.³

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: I Am an Old Man and Have Known a Great Many Troubles, But Most of Them Never Happened

Mark Twain? Thomas Jefferson? Martin Farquhar Tupper? Seneca? Winston Churchill? James A. Garfield? Thomas Dixon? Michel de Montaigne? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: Everyone faces difficulties in life; however, the worry-filled anticipation of possible setbacks pointlessly magnifies dangers. A comical statement illuminating this theme has been attributed to both Mark Twain and Winston Churchill:

I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened.

I hope you will be willing to explore this saying. An upbeat perspective suggests that great discoveries await.

Reply from Quote Investigator: A version of this quip was ascribed to Mark Twain in a Singapore newspaper in 1923, but Twain died in 1910; hence, this evidence is quite weak. Winston Churchill employed an instance of the saying in 1924, but he attributed the words to an anonymous “old man”. Details for these citations are given further below.

The earliest strong match located by QI was published in 1881. The humorous remark was spoken by President-elect James A. Garfield who was discussing the large number of tasks he would be facing as President. The statement was reported in the Cleveland Leader of Cleveland, Ohio, and the phrasing indicated that Garfield was referencing a saying that was already in circulation:¹

I remember the old man who said he had had a great many troubles in his life, but the worst of them never happened.

Interesting ideational precursors of this expression were used by Seneca the Younger, Thomas Jefferson, and Martin Farquhar Tupper.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order which trace the evolution of the sentiment and the saying.

Quote Origin: Military Intelligence is a Contradiction in Terms or an Oxymoron

Groucho Marx? George Carlin? John Charteris? Theodor Reik? Doctor Who? Shirley Hazzard? Niall MacDermot? Sam Ervin? Anonymous?

Question for Quote Investigator: The famous comedians Groucho Marx and George Carlin are both credited with a joke that can be expressed in many ways. Here are some examples:

Military Intelligence is an oxymoron.
Military Intelligence is a contradiction in terms.
Military Intelligence are two mutually exclusive words.
Military Intelligence are two terms that do not go together.

Did either of these well-known humorists make a remark of this type?

Reply from Quote Investigator: There is good evidence that both Groucho Marx and George Carlin employed a version of this quip. However, the earliest evidence located by QI points to a surprising person. John Charteris was a British Brigadier-General and the primary intelligence officer for Field Marshal Douglas Haig, the leader of the British Expeditionary Forces during World War I.¹

In 1931 Charteris wrote “At G.H.Q.” which described his experiences at the military general headquarters during the war. Charteris employed an instance of the expression when he recounted the dismissive attitude of a statesman toward information obtained via intelligence work. Boldface has been added to excerpts below:²

Curzon did not give much time to Intelligence work. I fancy Military Intelligence to him is a contradiction in terms.

The entry containing the text above appeared in a section dated February 5, 1916, but it may have been updated and amplified later, sometime between 1916 and 1931.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Quote Origin: Forgiveness Is the Fragrance the Violet Sheds on the Heel That Has Crushed It

Mark Twain? George Roemisch? Sophia May Eckley? Ella A. Giles? Elizabeth Reeves Humphreys? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: The following evocative metaphorical definition of forgiveness is often attributed to Mark Twain:

Forgiveness is the fragrance that the violet sheds on the heel that has crushed it.

But I have seen the quotation below credited to someone named George Roemisch in the popular advice column “Dear Abby”:

Forgiveness is the fragrance of the violet which still clings fast to the heel that crushed it.

I find this example of figurative speech fascinating. Is the ascription to Twain accurate? Would you explore the history of this type of saying?

Reply from Quote Investigator: There is no substantive evidence that Mark Twain said or wrote this statement. It is not listed on the TwainQuotes.com website edited by Barbara Schmidt, an important reference tool for checking expressions ascribed to the humorist. Also, it does not appear in the large compilation “Mark Twain at Your Fingertips”. The unsupported linkage to Twain was printed in newspapers by the 1970s. See details further below.

This metaphor does have a very long history and a variety of plants with aromas have been substituted into its framework. In 1794 a prominent scholar of ancient India and languages named Sir William Jones delivered a lecture titled “The Philosophy of the Asiaticks”.

Jones discussed the topic of forgiveness and its figurative representation in a work he credited to a pandit. The sandalwood tree has a close-grained wood that is prized for its long-lasting fragrance. In the following passage the destructive force was provided by an axe and not a foot:¹

…the beautiful Aryá couplet, which was written at least three centuries before our era, and which pronounces the duty of a good man, even in the moment of his destruction to consist not only in forgiving, but even in a desire of benefiting, his destroyer, as the Sandal-tree, in the instant of its overthrow, sheds perfume on the axe, which fells it…

An 1812 a book by Reverend Charles Colton discussed forgiveness and employed the same metaphor while citing the words of Sir William Jones in a footnote. Colton presented a “sandal-tree” as an example of a plant which had been “wronged” but reacted with “forgiveness” and “kindness”:²

The falling Sandal-Tree sheds fragrance round,
Perfumes the axe that fells it to the ground;
Some through their tortured trunks a balm supply,
And to give life to their destroyer—die;

In 1845 a poem titled “Father! Forgive Them!” used the symbol of a “floweret” which had been crushed beneath a foot to represent forgiveness. The overall context of the work was Christian:³

“Father, forgive them!” As a floweret fair,
When crushed beneath some rude and careless tread,
Breathes forth its fragrance on the balmy air,
Regaling him who hath its beauties shed

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.