If Your Experiment Needs Statistics, You Ought To Have Done a Better Experiment

Ernest Rutherford? John M. Hammersley? Judy Campisi? Anonymous?
Dear Quote Investigator: The raw data collected in some scientific experiments is extensively processed via statistical operations. The tentative conclusions of this research may be accompanied with complex discussions of confidence levels.

The prominent physicist Ernest Rutherford preferred decisive experiments that did not require sophisticated statistical analysis. Here are three embodiments of this viewpoint:

  • If you need statistics, you did the wrong experiment.
  • If you need statistics to do science, then it’s not science.
  • If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.

Would you please explore this topic?

Quote Investigator: In October 1961 mathematician John M. Hammersley of Oxford University ascribed the third statement above to Ernest Rutherford. Hammersley was discussing Monte Carlo methods which are statistics-based methods used to construct efficient computer programs capable of generating approximate answers. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1]1962 August, U. S. Army Research Office (Durham), Report No. 62-2, Proceedings of the Seventh Conference on the design of Experiments in Army Research Development and Testing, Sponsored by the Army … Continue reading

In Monte Carlo work we can take heed of Lord Rutherford’s dictum: “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” In a sense, all good Monte Carlo work is self-liquidating: although we start out with random numbers in order to solve a problem, which may seem to be intractable by conventional numerical analysis, nevertheless we should strive to reduce their influence on the final result, and one should always seize any opportunity to replace a part or even the whole of the sampling experiment by exact analysis.

The evidentiary value of this 1961 citation is lessened by the fact that Rutherford died in 1937.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “If Your Experiment Needs Statistics, You Ought To Have Done a Better Experiment”

References

References
↑1 1962 August, U. S. Army Research Office (Durham), Report No. 62-2, Proceedings of the Seventh Conference on the design of Experiments in Army Research Development and Testing, Sponsored by the Army Mathematics Steering Committee conducted at U. S. Army Signal Research & Development Laboratory, Fort Monmouth, New Jersey, Date: October 18-20, 1961, Article: Monte Carlo Methods, Author: J. M. Hammersley (Oxford University and Princeton University), Start Page 17, Quote Page 18 and 19, Published by: U. S. Army Research Office (Durham), Box CM, Duke Station, Durham, North Carolina. (HathiTrust Full View)

A Ph.D. Thesis Consists of Transferring Bones from One Graveyard to Another

J. Frank Dobie? Susan Riley? Joseph B. Mohr? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: Performing scholarly research requires scrutinizing bibliographies carefully, retrieving tomes conscientiously, and examining text closely. Afterwards the researcher must construct a thorough bibliography for their own creative work. A wit crafted the following humorous description of the process:

Doctoral research is similar to moving old bones from one graveyard to another.

Would you please explore this saying?

Quote Investigator: In 1943 “The Saturday Evening Post” published an article titled “Maverick Professor” about University of Texas English Professor J. Frank Dobie who specialized in folklore and rural Texas. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1]1943 September 11, The Saturday Evening Post, Maverick Professor by Jeanne Douglas and Liz Wharton, Start Page 14, Quote Page 61, Column 2, Saturday Evening Post Society, Inc., Indianapolis Indiana. … Continue reading

The mere fact that he is that rare phenomenon, a full professor without a Ph.D. degree, is enough to rile some of his fellow faculty members. Nor does his attitude exactly promote good will.

“I early learned,” he has said, “that a Ph.D. thesis consists of transferring bones from one graveyard to another.“

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “A Ph.D. Thesis Consists of Transferring Bones from One Graveyard to Another”

References

References
↑1 1943 September 11, The Saturday Evening Post, Maverick Professor by Jeanne Douglas and Liz Wharton, Start Page 14, Quote Page 61, Column 2, Saturday Evening Post Society, Inc., Indianapolis Indiana. (EBSCO MasterFILE Premier)

All I Want Is a Story. If You Have a Message, Send It by Western Union

Samuel Goldwyn? Humphrey Bogart? Ed Sullivan? Moss Hart? John Ford? Brendan Behan? Harry Warner? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: Storytellers often wish to do more than simply entertain. They wish to instruct their audiences via a didactic narrative. Yet, the primary concern of the producers of films and plays is financial success. This tension is illustrated by the following dialog:

Storyteller: I plan to tell a tale that has a powerful message.
Producer: If you’ve got a message, send it by Western Union.

Western Union began as a telegraph company, and it operated the dominant communication system in the U.S. for many decades. The telegram service was shut down in 2006.

The sardonic response above has been credited to movie producer Samuel Goldwyn, playwright Moss Hart, Hollywood star Humphrey Bogart, and others. Would you please explore this topic?

Quote Investigator: The earliest match located by QI appeared in the newspaper column of Aleen Wetstein in 1940. She relayed an anecdote from an unnamed screenwriter who was working with a collaborator on a gangster picture for Samuel Goldwyn. The collaborator desired to insert a message of social significance into the film. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1] 1940 July 27, The Pittsburgh Press, One Girl Chorus: If Goldwyn Has a Message He’ll Keep It On a Telegram by Aleen Wetstein, Quote Page 17, Column 3, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Newspapers_com)

Finally in Goldwyn’s office, the second writer outlined his idea. “Mr. Goldwyn,” he said, “this is a wonderful opportunity to point out labor’s battle against capitalism. You have a chance here to bring a great message to the people.”

Goldwyn looked at him. “Messages, messages,” he said. “From Western Union you get messages. From me you get pictures.”

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “All I Want Is a Story. If You Have a Message, Send It by Western Union”

References

References
↑1 1940 July 27, The Pittsburgh Press, One Girl Chorus: If Goldwyn Has a Message He’ll Keep It On a Telegram by Aleen Wetstein, Quote Page 17, Column 3, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Newspapers_com)

The True Friend Walks In When Others Walk Out

Walter Winchell? Robert Hill? C. R. Durrant? William T. Ellis? Milton Berle? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: When you encounter difficulties some nominal friends will walk away from you, but your genuine friends will offer help and support. Here are two versions of an apposite adage:

(1) The true friend walks in when others walk out.
(2) A real friend is one who walks in when the rest of the world walks out.

This saying has been ascribed to the influential gossip columnist Walter Winchell. Would you please explore the origin of this aphorism?

Quote Investigator: A precursor appeared in 1916 within a periodical based in Atlanta, Georgia called “The Presbyterian of the South”. Friendship was discussed in a piece about the biblical patriarch Enoch with the byline R. H. The initials probably referred to co-editor Reverend Robert Hill of Dallas Texas. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1] 1916 January 19, The Presbyterian of the South, Enoch: For the New Year–A Meditation by R. H., Start Page 2, Quote Page 3, Column 1, Atlanta, Georgia. (Newspapers_com)

He is truly a friend who comes when all else goes, who walks with you when all others are walking from you.

The statement above used the phrases “comes” and “walks with you” instead of “walks in”. Thus, the syntactic match was inexact, but the semantic match was close.

In 1924 “The Border Cities Star” of Ontario, Canada published an article about a meeting of the Odd Fellows fraternal organization. Reverend C. R. Durrant, past grand chaplain of the Independent Order of Odd Fellows, delivered a speech containing an instance of the saying:[2] 1924 April 28, The Border Cities Star (The Windsor Star), 600 at Lodge Celebration: 105th Anniversary of Oddfellows Observed, Quote Page 5, Column 8, Windsor, Ontario, Canada. (Newspapers_com)

“That is why friendship is the basis of Oddfellowship,” he said, “and the reason why it is so strongly emphasized by the Order. To have friends, one must, above all, be friendly himself. The friend walks in when others walk out. He is like a sunbeam, binds like a chain and guides like a vision.”

QI believes that this saying evolved over time and should be labelled anonymous. Walter Winchell printed the saying in his column repeatedly starting in 1933. Hence, he helped to popularize the adage, but he did not coin it.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “The True Friend Walks In When Others Walk Out”

References

References
↑1 1916 January 19, The Presbyterian of the South, Enoch: For the New Year–A Meditation by R. H., Start Page 2, Quote Page 3, Column 1, Atlanta, Georgia. (Newspapers_com)
↑2 1924 April 28, The Border Cities Star (The Windsor Star), 600 at Lodge Celebration: 105th Anniversary of Oddfellows Observed, Quote Page 5, Column 8, Windsor, Ontario, Canada. (Newspapers_com)

Beware of His False Knowledge: It Is More Dangerous Than Ignorance

George Bernard Shaw? Alexander Pope? H. W. James? Thomas Henry Huxley? Paul Janet? George Pellew? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: Recently I saw a tweet with a quotation attributed to the famous playwright and intellectual George Bernard Shaw:

Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.

I haven’t been able to find a solid citation. Would you please help?

Quote Investigator: In 1903 George Bernard Shaw published “Man and Superman: A Comedy and a Philosophy”. The book included a section titled “Maxims for Revolutionists”. One of the adages closely matched the statement under analysis. Yet, it did differ slightly. Here are four of Shaw’s maxims. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1]1905 (1903 Copyright), Man and Superman: A Comedy and a Philosophy by Bernard Shaw (George Bernard Shaw), Section: Maxims for Revolutionists, Start Page 226, Quote Page 230, Brentano’s, New … Continue reading

He who can, does. He who cannot, teaches.

A learned man is an idler who kills time with study. Beware of his false knowledge: it is more dangerous than ignorance.

Activity is the only road to knowledge.

Every fool believes what his teachers tell him, and calls his credulity science or morality as confidently as his father called it divine revelation.

Shaw’s comment about false knowledge has close precursors, and QI suggests a possible lineage for the remark by presenting selected citations in chronological order below.

Continue reading “Beware of His False Knowledge: It Is More Dangerous Than Ignorance”

References

References
↑1 1905 (1903 Copyright), Man and Superman: A Comedy and a Philosophy by Bernard Shaw (George Bernard Shaw), Section: Maxims for Revolutionists, Start Page 226, Quote Page 230, Brentano’s, New York. (Google Books Full View) link

You Are the First Generation To Face the Possibility of Being the Last Generation

Thomas Clement Douglas? Beto O’Rourke? Jay Inslee? Barack Obama? Mike McGinn? W. R. Barnhart? Lee Loevinger? Billy Graham? Jay D. Hair? Brian Fisher?

Dear Quote Investigator: Humanity faces a severe danger according to similar statements from two presidential candidates:

(1) We are the first generation to feel the sting of climate change and we are the last generation who can do something about it.

(2) We are the first generation to feel the climate crisis, and the last generation with the ability to avert its worst impacts.

In the past, I have heard comparably eloquent formulations that call upon humankind to overcome enormous perils. The archetypal warning asserts that the first generation to encounter a problem might be the last to exist unless significant changes occur. Would you please explore this topic?

Quote Investigator: The people of the world became aware of an unprecedented existential risk after the first nuclear bomb was detonated in 1945. In 1948 a commencement speaker at a high school in Maryland issued a warning to students. W. R. Barnhart, head of the Department of Religion at Hood College, stated the following. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1] 1948 June 11, The News, Diplomas for 63 at Thurmont, Quote Page 1, Column 3, Frederick, Maryland. (Newspapers_com)

“The all important question in this atomic age is the question of Hamlet, ‘To be or not to be?’ That has become the most important question for the whole of mankind.

We are the first generation that can completely destroy ourselves. At the close of the First World War the younger generation was called the lost generation. If our present younger generation should be another lost generation it may be the last generation.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “You Are the First Generation To Face the Possibility of Being the Last Generation”

References

References
↑1 1948 June 11, The News, Diplomas for 63 at Thurmont, Quote Page 1, Column 3, Frederick, Maryland. (Newspapers_com)

You Are My Fifth Favorite Actor. The First Four Are the Marx Brothers

George Bernard Shaw? Winston Churchill? Cedric Hardwicke? Blanche Patch? Leonard Lyons? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: According to a Hollywood legend, a famous intellectual or statesman once praised a prominent actor with a left-handed compliment. Here are two versions:

  • You are my fifth favorite actor. The first four are the Marx Brothers.
  • You are my fourth favorite actor. The first three are the Marx Brothers.

The famous person was supposedly George Bernard Shaw or Winston Churchill. The actor was the English star of the stage and screen Cedric Hardwicke. Would you please explore this entertaining tale?

Quote Investigator: Five Marx brothers were involved in the entertainment business; they employed the following stage names: Chico, Harpo, Groucho, Zeppo, and Gummo. The first four appeared in several movies together, but only the first three achieved stardom.

The earliest strong match for the anecdote located by QI appeared in the Hollywood gossip column of Leonard Lyons in 1946. The quotation emerged via a dialog. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1] 1946 March 14, The Dayton Daily News, The Lyons Den: Pauley Turns Ickes Photo To the Wall by Leonard Lyons, Quote Page 11, Column 3, Dayton, Ohio. (Newspapers_com)

Sir Cedric Hardwicke, now, co-starring with Katharine Cornell in “Antigone,” starred in some of Shaw’s plays in London. Shaw once told him: “Cedric, you are my fourth favorite actor.” Hardwicke asked: “G. B. S., who are the other three?” And Shaw replied: “The Marx Bros.”

This version referred to three Marx Brothers instead of four. Lyons indicated that he heard the anecdote from Hardwicke, and QI conjectures that Hardwicke constructed this humorous story by altering a comment made by Shaw. This conjecture is based on the 1951 citation given immediately below and the April 17, 1959 citation given further below.

Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “You Are My Fifth Favorite Actor. The First Four Are the Marx Brothers”

References

References
↑1 1946 March 14, The Dayton Daily News, The Lyons Den: Pauley Turns Ickes Photo To the Wall by Leonard Lyons, Quote Page 11, Column 3, Dayton, Ohio. (Newspapers_com)

People Are Taking Their Comedians Seriously, and Their Politicians as a Joke

Will Rogers? Ron Chernow? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: The U.S. journalist and historian Ron Chernow spoke at the 2019 White House Correspondents’ Association annual dinner. He shared a quip attributed to humorist Will Rogers about the status reversal of comedians and politicians. Would you please help me to find a citation?

Quote Investigator: In November 1932 Will Rogers published the following remark in his widely-syndicated newspaper column. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1] 1932 November 23, The Piqua Daily Call, Will Rogers says (McNaught Syndicate), Quote Page 1, Column 1, Piqua, Ohio. (Newspapers_com)

Everything is changing in America. People are taking their comedians seriously, and their politicians as a joke, when-it-used-to-be-vice-versa.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “People Are Taking Their Comedians Seriously, and Their Politicians as a Joke”

References

References
↑1 1932 November 23, The Piqua Daily Call, Will Rogers says (McNaught Syndicate), Quote Page 1, Column 1, Piqua, Ohio. (Newspapers_com)

The Two Most Engaging Powers of an Author: New Things Are Made Familiar, and Familiar Things Are Made New

Samuel Johnson? William Makepeace Thackeray? Anonymous?

Dear Quote Investigator: The craft of storytelling is ancient; hence, creating original plots and characters is difficult. On the other hand, experimental tales without connections to the past are discordant. Here is a germane adage about successful creators:

The two most engaging powers of an author are to make new things familiar, and familiar things new.

This notion has been attributed to the famous lexicographer Samuel Johnson and the prominent novelist William Makepeace Thackeray. Would you please explore this topic?

Quote Investigator: Samuel Johnson published a collection of biographical sketches and critical analyses under the title “The Lives of the Most Eminent English Poets”. The volume discussing the English writer Alexander Pope appeared in 1781, and Johnson included an assessment of the parodic fantasy poem “The Rape of the Lock”. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI:[1]1781, The Lives of the Most Eminent English Poets; With Critical Observations on Their Works by Samuel Johnson, Volume 4, Section: Alexander Pope, Quote Page 188, Printed for C. Bathurst, J. … Continue reading

In this work are exhibited, in a very high degree, the two most engaging powers of an author. New things are made familiar, and familiar things are made new. A race of aerial people, never heard of before, is presented to us in a manner so clear and easy, that the reader seeks for no further information, but immediately mingles with his new acquaintance, adopts their interests, and attends their pursuits, loves a sylph, and detests a gnome.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “The Two Most Engaging Powers of an Author: New Things Are Made Familiar, and Familiar Things Are Made New”

References

References
↑1 1781, The Lives of the Most Eminent English Poets; With Critical Observations on Their Works by Samuel Johnson, Volume 4, Section: Alexander Pope, Quote Page 188, Printed for C. Bathurst, J. Buckland, W. Strahan, and more, London. (Google Books Full View) link

Fashions, After All, Are Only Induced Epidemics

George Bernard Shaw? Gloria Steinem? W.H. Auden? Leo Rosten? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: A style, jingle, gif, graffito, saying, or idea that rapidly mutates and propagates through a culture and achieves popularity is called a “meme” nowadays. The coinage of “meme” was based on “gene”, but a different biological metaphor was employed in the past. Here are two statements that have been attributed to the influential playwright George Bernard Shaw.

  • Fashions are induced epidemics.
  • A fashion is nothing but an induced epidemic.

Would you please help me to find a citation together with the correct phrasing?

Quote Investigator: George Bernard Shaw’s play “The Doctor’s Dilemma” was first staged in 1906. Shaw published the text of the play combined with a preface in 1911. A section of the preface titled “Fashions and Epidemics” cogently discussed fads in clothing and in medical procedures:[1] 1911, The Doctor’s Dilemma with Preface on Doctors by Bernard Shaw, Fashions and Epidemics, Start Page lxxii, Quote Page lxxii, Brentano’s, New York. (Verified with scans)

A demand, however, can be inculcated. This is thoroughly understood by fashionable tradesmen, who find no difficulty in persuading their customers to renew articles that are not worn out and to buy things they do not want. By making doctors tradesmen, we compel them to learn the tricks of trade; consequently we find that the fashions of the year include treatments, operations, and particular drugs, as well as hats, sleeves, ballads, and games.

Tonsils, vermiform appendices, uvulas, even ovaries are sacrificed because it is the fashion to get them cut out, and because the operations are highly profitable. The psychology of fashion becomes a pathology; for the cases have every air of being genuine: fashions, after all, are only induced epidemics, proving that epidemics can be induced by tradesmen, and therefore by doctors.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Fashions, After All, Are Only Induced Epidemics”

References

References
↑1 1911, The Doctor’s Dilemma with Preface on Doctors by Bernard Shaw, Fashions and Epidemics, Start Page lxxii, Quote Page lxxii, Brentano’s, New York. (Verified with scans)