It Is Easy To Predict an Automobile in 1880; It Is Very Hard To Predict a Traffic Problem

Frederik Pohl? Robert Heinlein? Isaac Asimov? Connie Willis? Ed Bryant? George Zebrowski? Ben Bova? Robert J. Sawyer? Sam Moskowitz?

Dear Quote Investigator: Predicting the primary effects of a new technology is difficult but feasible. Anticipating all the secondary effects is nearly impossible. Here are two statements of a viewpoint that has achieved popularity amongst science fiction aficionados:

In the nineteenth century a machine enthusiast could have predicted the automobile, but an SF writer could have predicted the traffic jam.

It is easy to predict the automobile but difficult to predict the traffic jam.

Would you please explore this saying?

Quote Investigator: The earliest match located by QI occurred in a 1953 essay by prolific science and SF author Isaac Asimov titled “Social Science Fiction”. Asimov discussed three different types of SF stories:[1]1953, Modern Science Fiction: Its Meaning and Its Future, Edited Reginald Bretnor, Chapter: Social Science Fiction by Isaac Asimov, Start Page 157, Quote Page 171, Coward-McCann, New York. (Verified … Continue reading

Let us suppose it is 1880 and we have a series of three writers who are each interested in writing a story of the future about an imaginary vehicle that can move without horses by some internal source of power; a horseless carriage, in other words.

According to Asimov, gadget SF, the first type of tale, highlights the struggle to invent such a device and climaxes with its successful demonstration. Adventure SF, the second type, presents a romantic tale that hinges on using the device during action packed scenes. Social SF, the third type, explores the complex ramifications of the device as it is deployed within a society.

Asimov remarked that automobiles catalyzed the construction of suburbs. He also observed that vast networks of busy roadways resulted in large numbers of injuries and deaths. These indirect consequences of automobile usage would not have been easy to foresee. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[2]1953, Modern Science Fiction: Its Meaning and Its Future, Edited Reginald Bretnor, Chapter: Social Science Fiction by Isaac Asimov, Start Page 157, Quote Page 172, Coward-McCann, New York. (Verified … Continue reading

It is easy to predict an automobile in 1880; it is very hard to predict a traffic problem. The former is really only an extrapolation of the railroad. The latter is something completely novel and unexpected.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “It Is Easy To Predict an Automobile in 1880; It Is Very Hard To Predict a Traffic Problem”

References

References
↑1 1953, Modern Science Fiction: Its Meaning and Its Future, Edited Reginald Bretnor, Chapter: Social Science Fiction by Isaac Asimov, Start Page 157, Quote Page 171, Coward-McCann, New York. (Verified with scans; Internet Archive)
↑2 1953, Modern Science Fiction: Its Meaning and Its Future, Edited Reginald Bretnor, Chapter: Social Science Fiction by Isaac Asimov, Start Page 157, Quote Page 172, Coward-McCann, New York. (Verified with scans; Internet Archive)

It Is Difficult, After Knowing Opium, To Take Earth Seriously

Jean Cocteau? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: The prominent French artist Jean Cocteau crafted the most insightful remark about addiction that I have ever read. Some drugs permanently shift one’s perception of pleasure and purpose in the world. Would you please help me to find Cocteau’s comment about the difficulty of taking the world seriously after using opium?

Quote Investigator: Jean Cocteau’s work “Opium: The Diary of a Cure” was based on a set of notes he wrote in 1929 with significant additions made in 1930. A translation from the French to English by Margaret Crosland and Sinclair Road appeared in 1957. Cocteau wrote the following about opium’s power, Boldface added to excerpt by QI:[1] 1957, Opium: The Diary of a Cure by Jean Cocteau, Translated from the French by Margaret Crosland and Sinclair Road, Quote Page 93, Peter Owen Limited, London. (Verified with hardcopy)

It is difficult to live without opium after having known it because it is difficult, after knowing opium, to take earth seriously. And unless one is a saint, it is difficult to live without taking earth seriously.

Image Notes: Picture of a field of poppies from Schwoaze at Pixabay. Image has been cropped and resized.

(Great thanks to the anonymous person whose inquiry led QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration.)

References

References
↑1 1957, Opium: The Diary of a Cure by Jean Cocteau, Translated from the French by Margaret Crosland and Sinclair Road, Quote Page 93, Peter Owen Limited, London. (Verified with hardcopy)

No One Really Listens To Anyone Else, and If You Try It for a While You’ll See Why

Mignon McLaughlin? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: Imagine reading a constructive, entertaining, and edifying discussion thread on social media. If you travel through the looking glass you can envision six impossible things before breakfast.

Now, imagine reading an unconstructive, mind-numbing, and obscurantist exchange. This latter possibility reminds me of a rueful remark from the famous wit Mignon McLaughlin. Would you please help me to find it?

Quote Investigator: The journalist, short story author, and aphorism creator Mignon McLaughlin included the following adage in her collection titled “The Second Neurotic’s Notebook”:[1] 1966, The Second Neurotic’s Notebook by Mignon McLaughlin, Chapter 3: Men and Women, Quote Page 21, The Bobbs-Merrill Company, Indianapolis, Indiana. (Verified with scans)

No one really listens to anyone else, and if you try it for a while you’ll see why.

Image Notes: Variant rendition of three wise monkeys (“speak no evil, see no evil, hear no evil”) from 3D_Maennchen at Pixabay.

References

References
↑1 1966, The Second Neurotic’s Notebook by Mignon McLaughlin, Chapter 3: Men and Women, Quote Page 21, The Bobbs-Merrill Company, Indianapolis, Indiana. (Verified with scans)

An Alleged Scientific Discovery Has No Merit Unless It Can Be Explained To a Barmaid

Albert Einstein? Ernest Rutherford? Cyril Hinshelwood? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: It should be possible to explain a valid scientific theory to anybody, e.g., a nine-year-old, a grandmother, or the man in the street. This dubious assertion is challenged by the fact that few humans are able to comprehend the notion of a four-dimensional space-time manifold which is central to the breakthrough theory of special relativity in physics.

Would you please explore another debatable claim of this type? Here are three versions:

  • A good scientific theory should be explicable to a barmaid
  • It should be possible to explain the laws of physics to a barmaid.
  • No physical theory is worth much if it cannot be explained to a barmaid.

This remark has been attributed to both Albert Einstein and Ernest Rutherford, two Nobel Prize winning scientists.

Quote Investigator: The earliest match located by QI appeared in the journal “Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society” within a 1955 article about Albert Einstein who had died earlier in the year. The piece noted that some fellow scientists were initially reluctant to accept Einstein’s research results because of their complex abstract nature. While discussing this resistance the article mentioned the saying together with an ascription to Ernest Rutherford. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[1]1955 November, Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, Volume 1, Albert Einstein 1879-1955 by Edmund Whittaker, Start Page 37, Quote Page 54, Published by Royal Society, United Kingdom. … Continue reading

Some of it may have been due to the popular principle attributed to Rutherford, that an alleged scientific discovery has no merit unless it can be explained to a barmaid.

Over time Einstein’s colleagues embraced his work and performed experiments that supported his theories.

Ernest Rutherford died in 1937, so the attribution above is posthumous and rather late. Also, the phrasing has been highly variable. Over all, the supporting evidence is not strong. On the other hand, Rutherford is the leading candidate because other ascriptions only emerged in the 1970s.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “An Alleged Scientific Discovery Has No Merit Unless It Can Be Explained To a Barmaid”

References

References
↑1 1955 November, Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, Volume 1, Albert Einstein 1879-1955 by Edmund Whittaker, Start Page 37, Quote Page 54, Published by Royal Society, United Kingdom. (JSTOR) link

Whenever You See Me Somewhere Succeeding In One Area of My Life, That Almost Certainly Means I Am Failing In Another

Shonda Rhimes? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: The acclaimed long-running television series Grey’s Anatomy was created by writer and producer Shonda Rhimes. Her company Shondaland has successfully produced many lauded shows. Predictably, Rhimes leads a very busy life.

Unpredictably, she was willing to speak with complete candor to graduating Ivy League students. What sobering message did she deliver about the inevitable tradeoffs that an enterprising person must make?

Quote Investigator: Inspirational speakers prefer to present the upbeat message: You can have it all. When Shonda Rhimes delivered the commencement address at her alma mater Dartmouth University in 2014 she offered a different lesson: If you are living fully it is impossible to meet all the demands on your time and energy. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[1]Website: Dartmouth University, Article title: Shonda Rhimes ’91, Commencement Address, Article author: Shonda Rhimes, Speech delivered: June 8, 2014, Website description: Information about … Continue reading

“Shonda, how do you do it all?” The answer is this, “I don’t.” Whenever you see me somewhere succeeding in one area of my life, that almost certainly means I am failing in another area of my life. If I am killing it on a Scandal script for work, I am probably missing bath and story time at home . . .

That is the tradeoff. That is the Faustian bargain one makes with the devil that comes with being a powerful working woman who is also a powerful mother . . .

And yet. I want my daughters to see me and know me as a woman who works. I want that example set for them.

A video of her speech is available on YouTube here.[2]YouTube video, Title: Shonda Rhimes ’91 Delivers Dartmouth’s Commencement Speech, Upload date: June 9, 2014, Uploader: Dartmouth, Date of speech: June 8, 2014, (Quotation starts at 17 … Continue reading

Continue reading “Whenever You See Me Somewhere Succeeding In One Area of My Life, That Almost Certainly Means I Am Failing In Another”

References

References
↑1 Website: Dartmouth University, Article title: Shonda Rhimes ’91, Commencement Address, Article author: Shonda Rhimes, Speech delivered: June 8, 2014, Website description: Information about Dartmouth University. (Accessed dartmouth.edu on October 16, 2019) link
↑2 YouTube video, Title: Shonda Rhimes ’91 Delivers Dartmouth’s Commencement Speech, Upload date: June 9, 2014, Uploader: Dartmouth, Date of speech: June 8, 2014, (Quotation starts at 17 minute 54 seconds of 24 minutes 01 seconds) Description: This video shows the Commencement Speech delivered by Shonda Rhimes at Dartmouth University on June 8, 2014. (Accessed on youtube.com on Ocotober 16, 2019) link

The Dubious Privilege of a Freelance Writer Is He’s Given the Freedom To Starve Anywhere

S. J. Perelman? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: A major shift in the U.S. labor market has been occurring in recent years. The emerging system has been called the gig economy or the freelance economy. Self-employed temporary workers perform tasks for agreed-upon payments.

Freelancing has been common in some fields for many decades. The prominent humorist S. J. Perelman who wrote numerous pieces for “The New Yorker” magazine once linked his freedom from fixed employment with the unfortunate possibility of starvation. Would you please help me to find a citation?

Quote Investigator: In 1970 S. J. Perelman was planning to move from the U.S. to England. He looked forward to a new life in a land that maintained a “taste for eccentricity”. A reporter for “The Washington Post” spoke to him before his departure. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[1] 1970 October 18, The Washington Post, Section: Style, Perelman’s Rasping Wit Becomes an Anglo-File by Myra MacPherson, Start Page E1, Quote Page E4, Column 2, Washington, D.C. (ProQuest)

Perelman said he had a rush of mail all virtually saying the same thing: “I wish I had the guts to do what you’re doing. It doesn’t take guts. The dubious privilege of a freelance writer is he’s given the freedom to starve anywhere.”

Perelman’s stay in England was not lengthy; he returned to the U.S. after a few years and died in 1979.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “The Dubious Privilege of a Freelance Writer Is He’s Given the Freedom To Starve Anywhere”

References

References
↑1 1970 October 18, The Washington Post, Section: Style, Perelman’s Rasping Wit Becomes an Anglo-File by Myra MacPherson, Start Page E1, Quote Page E4, Column 2, Washington, D.C. (ProQuest)

Quote Origin: His Grace Returned From the Wars This Morning and Pleasured Me Twice in His Top-Boots

Sarah Churchill? James Agate? A. L. Rowse? Theodor Reik? Apocryphal?

Question for Quote Investigator: A legend asserts that Sarah Churchill, Duchess of Marlborough wrote a passionate remark in her diary. Here are three versions:

  1. Today the Duke returned from the war and pleasured me twice in his top boots.
  2. My Lord on returning pleasured me thrice without removing his boots.
  3. His Lordship returned from the wars this morning, and pleasured me thrice in his top-boots!

Are any of these statements genuine? What evidence is available?

Reply from Quote Investigator: Several researchers have attempted to explore this topic, and the available evidence is weak. Sarah Churchill died in 1744, and the first citation known to QI appeared almost two hundred years later in the diaristic autobiography of English theatre critic James Agate. The fourth volume of his autobiography titled “Ego 4” was published in 1940, and it included an entry dated July 28, 1938. Agate discussed his dislike of pageants which included amateur theatrical events. He was unable to suspend his disbelief because he knew the prosaic backgrounds of the performers. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:1

How can those be Hengist and Horsa when we know them to be young Mr Pepper and young Mr Salt, the obliging assistants from the local grocer’s ? How can yonder stout party hope to be Sarah, Duchess of Marlborough—“His Grace returned from the wars this morning and pleasured me twice in his top-boots”—when we know her to be the vicar’s sister and quite unpleasurable?

Agate included the quotation to illustrate the sensuality of Sarah Churchill which the amateur performer was unable to embody and project. Yet, it was unclear how Agate learned of the quotation. Later citations stated that the line was from a family tradition or an oral tradition.

Perhaps there is a closely held diary or letter containing the statement, but QI has not yet seen supporting evidence for this hypothesis, and the phrasing has been highly variable.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “Quote Origin: His Grace Returned From the Wars This Morning and Pleasured Me Twice in His Top-Boots”

This Is Only a Foretaste of What Is To Come, and Only the Shadow of What Is Going To Be

Alan Turing? Apocryphal?

Dear Quote Investigator: Code breaker Alan Turing was a major figure in computer science and a pioneer in artificial intelligence. In 2021 Turing’s portrait will appear on newly issued £50 notes from the Bank of England. Would you please explore the quotation that reportedly will be printed on the notes?

Quote Investigator: In June 1949 “The Times” of London published an article about a Manchester University project which built an electronic calculator referred to hyperbolically as a “mechanical mind”. This early computing device was able to perform a calculation that had heretofore been impossible because of its length and intricacy. Turing’s commentary was both exciting and ominous. Boldface is used to highlight the quotation that will appear on the upcoming bank note:[1] 1949 June 11, The Times, The Mechanical Brain: Answer Found To 300 Year-Old Sum (From Our Special Correspondent), Quote Page 4, Column 5, London, England. (Gale Digital Archive of The Times of London)

Mr. Turing said yesterday: “This is only a foretaste of what is to come, and only the shadow of what is going to be. We have to have some experience with the machine before we really know its capabilities. It may take years before we settle down to the new possibilities, but I do not see why it should not enter any one of the fields normally covered by the human intellect, and eventually compete on equal terms.”

Turing also outlined an important future objective of the project:

Their research would be directed to finding the degree of intellectual activity of which a machine was capable, and to what extent it could think for itself.

This short article ends with a citation, conclusion, image note, and acknowledgement.

Continue reading “This Is Only a Foretaste of What Is To Come, and Only the Shadow of What Is Going To Be”

References

References
↑1 1949 June 11, The Times, The Mechanical Brain: Answer Found To 300 Year-Old Sum (From Our Special Correspondent), Quote Page 4, Column 5, London, England. (Gale Digital Archive of The Times of London)

One Starts To Get Young at the Age of 60 and Then It’s Too Late

Pablo Picasso? Jean Cocteau? Derek Prouse?

Dear Quote Investigator: The proficiency, creativity, and potency of an artist can grow for decades. Yet, painter and sculptor Pablo Picasso apparently said the following about his change in mentality as he became older. Here are two versions:

  • One starts to get young at 60 and then it is too late.
  • One starts to get young at the age of sixty, and then it’s too late.

Would you please help me to find a citation?

Quote Investigator: Derek Prouse interviewed the prominent French literary figure and film maker Jean Cocteau shortly before the artist died, and the conversation appeared in “The Sunday Times” of London in October 1963. Cocteau repeated a remark he had heard recently from Pablo Picasso. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[1]1963 October 27, The Boston Sunday Globe, Cocteau’s Last Observations: One Is Getting Young At 60 … It’s Too Late by Derek Prouse, Quote Page 6A, Column 1 and 2, Boston, … Continue reading

“Of course, the artist’s life has always been a struggle. Picasso said to me the other day: ‘One starts to get young at the age of 60—and then it’s too late.’ Only then does one start to feel free; only then has one learned to strip oneself down to one’s essential creative simplicity.”

Thus, the evidence for this quotation is indirect. Cocteau reported the words he ascribed to Picasso during an interview published in “The Sunday Times”.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading “One Starts To Get Young at the Age of 60 and Then It’s Too Late”

References

References
↑1 1963 October 27, The Boston Sunday Globe, Cocteau’s Last Observations: One Is Getting Young At 60 … It’s Too Late by Derek Prouse, Quote Page 6A, Column 1 and 2, Boston, Massachusetts. (The interview originally appeared in “The Sunday Times” of London on October 20, 1963) (Newspapers_com)

If We Have Our Own ‘Why’ of Life, We Shall Get Along With Almost Any ‘How’

Friedrich Nietzsche? Viktor E. Frankl? Thomas Common? Anthony M. Ludovici? Walter Kaufmann? R. J. Hollingdale? Ilse Lasch?

Dear Quote Investigator: Life can be aggravating and even agonizing. Yet, a steady internal purpose helps to make difficulties endurable together with the thought that happiness and pleasure will someday return. Here is an apposite adage:

One who has a ‘why’ to live for can endure almost any ‘how’.

This notion has been attributed to philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche and psychiatrist Viktor E. Frankl. Would you please explore this topic?

Quote Investigator: In 1889 Friedrich Nietzsche published “Götzen-Dämmerung; oder, Wie man mit dem Hammer philosophirt” (“Twilight of the Idols, or, How to philosophize with a hammer”) which included a section called “Sprüche und Pfeile” (“Maxims and Arrows”). The following statement was included. Boldface added to excerpts by QI:[1]1889 (catalog date), Title: Götzen-Dämmerung; oder, Wie man mit dem Hammer philosophirt, Author: Friedrich Nietzsche, Edition: Zweite Auflage (Second Edition), Chapter: Sprüche und Pfeile … Continue reading

Mit einem Ziele. — Hat man sein warum? des Lebens, so verträgt man sich fast mit jedem wie? — Der Mensch strebt nicht nach Glück; nur der Engländer thut das.

This statement has been translated into English in several different ways during the ensuing decades. Here is a rendering by Thomas Common which appeared in an 1896 edition of Nietzsche’s work:[2]1896, The Case of Wagner: Nietzsche Contra Wagner, The Twilight of the Idols, The Antichrist by Friedrich Nietzsche, Translated by Thomas Common, Section: The Twilight of the Idols, Chapter: … Continue reading

When one has one’s wherefore of life, one gets along with almost every how.—Man does not strive after happiness; the Englishman only does so.

Viktor E. Frankl did employ a version of the adage, but he credited Nietzsche as discussed further below.

Here are additional selected citations.

Continue reading “If We Have Our Own ‘Why’ of Life, We Shall Get Along With Almost Any ‘How’”

References

References
↑1 1889 (catalog date), Title: Götzen-Dämmerung; oder, Wie man mit dem Hammer philosophirt, Author: Friedrich Nietzsche, Edition: Zweite Auflage (Second Edition), Chapter: Sprüche und Pfeile (Proverbs and Arrows), Quote Page 2, Publisher: C.G. Naumann, Leipzig. (HathiTrust Full View) link
↑2 1896, The Case of Wagner: Nietzsche Contra Wagner, The Twilight of the Idols, The Antichrist by Friedrich Nietzsche, Translated by Thomas Common, Section: The Twilight of the Idols, Chapter: Apophthegms and Darts, Quote Page 100, H. Henry and Company, London. (HathiTrust Full View) link